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Description
Random Forests is a statistical learning method which has been proposed for propensity score estimation models that involve complex interactions, nonlinear relationships, or both of the covariates. In this dissertation I conducted a simulation study to examine the effects of three Random Forests model specifications in propensity score analysis. The results suggested that, depending on the nature of data, optimal specification of (1) decision rules to select the covariate and its split value in a Classification Tree, (2) the number of covariates randomly sampled for selection, and (3) methods of estimating Random Forests propensity scores could potentially produce an unbiased average treatment effect estimate after propensity scores weighting by the odds adjustment. Compared to the logistic regression estimation model using the true propensity score model, Random Forests had an additional advantage in producing unbiased estimated standard error and correct statistical inference of the average treatment effect. The relationship between the balance on the covariates' means and the bias of average treatment effect estimate was examined both within and between conditions of the simulation. Within conditions, across repeated samples there was no noticeable correlation between the covariates' mean differences and the magnitude of bias of average treatment effect estimate for the covariates that were imbalanced before adjustment. Between conditions, small mean differences of covariates after propensity score adjustment were not sensitive enough to identify the optimal Random Forests model specification for propensity score analysis.
ContributorsCham, Hei Ning (Author) / Tein, Jenn-Yun (Thesis advisor) / Enders, Stephen G (Thesis advisor) / Enders, Craig K. (Committee member) / Mackinnon, David P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
With the rapid development of mobile sensing technologies like GPS, RFID, sensors in smartphones, etc., capturing position data in the form of trajectories has become easy. Moving object trajectory analysis is a growing area of interest these days owing to its applications in various domains such as marketing, security, traffic monitoring and management, etc. To better understand movement behaviors from the raw mobility data, this doctoral work provides analytic models for analyzing trajectory data. As a first contribution, a model is developed to detect changes in trajectories with time. If the taxis moving in a city are viewed as sensors that provide real time information of the traffic in the city, a change in these trajectories with time can reveal that the road network has changed. To detect changes, trajectories are modeled with a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). A modified training algorithm, for parameter estimation in HMM, called m-BaumWelch, is used to develop likelihood estimates under assumed changes and used to detect changes in trajectory data with time. Data from vehicles are used to test the method for change detection. Secondly, sequential pattern mining is used to develop a model to detect changes in frequent patterns occurring in trajectory data. The aim is to answer two questions: Are the frequent patterns still frequent in the new data? If they are frequent, has the time interval distribution in the pattern changed? Two different approaches are considered for change detection, frequency-based approach and distribution-based approach. The methods are illustrated with vehicle trajectory data. Finally, a model is developed for clustering and outlier detection in semantic trajectories. A challenge with clustering semantic trajectories is that both numeric and categorical attributes are present. Another problem to be addressed while clustering is that trajectories can be of different lengths and also have missing values. A tree-based ensemble is used to address these problems. The approach is extended to outlier detection in semantic trajectories.
ContributorsKondaveeti, Anirudh (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Maciejewski, Ross (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
With the increase in computing power and availability of data, there has never been a greater need to understand data and make decisions from it. Traditional statistical techniques may not be adequate to handle the size of today's data or the complexities of the information hidden within the data. Thus knowledge discovery by machine learning techniques is necessary if we want to better understand information from data. In this dissertation, we explore the topics of asymmetric loss and asymmetric data in machine learning and propose new algorithms as solutions to some of the problems in these topics. We also studied variable selection of matched data sets and proposed a solution when there is non-linearity in the matched data. The research is divided into three parts. The first part addresses the problem of asymmetric loss. A proposed asymmetric support vector machine (aSVM) is used to predict specific classes with high accuracy. aSVM was shown to produce higher precision than a regular SVM. The second part addresses asymmetric data sets where variables are only predictive for a subset of the predictor classes. Asymmetric Random Forest (ARF) was proposed to detect these kinds of variables. The third part explores variable selection for matched data sets. Matched Random Forest (MRF) was proposed to find variables that are able to distinguish case and control without the restrictions that exists in linear models. MRF detects variables that are able to distinguish case and control even in the presence of interaction and qualitative variables.
ContributorsKoh, Derek (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Cesta, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The subliminal impact of framing of social, political and environmental issues such as climate change has been studied for decades in political science and communications research. Media framing offers an “interpretative package" for average citizens on how to make sense of climate change and its consequences to their livelihoods, how to deal with its negative impacts, and which mitigation or adaptation policies to support. A line of related work has used bag of words and word-level features to detect frames automatically in text. Such works face limitations since standard keyword based features may not generalize well to accommodate surface variations in text when different keywords are used for similar concepts.
This thesis develops a unique type of textual features that generalize triplets extracted from text, by clustering them into high-level concepts. These concepts are utilized as features to detect frames in text. Compared to uni-gram and bi-gram based models, classification and clustering using generalized concepts yield better discriminating features and a higher classification accuracy with a 12% boost (i.e. from 74% to 83% F-measure) and 0.91 clustering purity for Frame/Non-Frame detection.
The automatic discovery of complex causal chains among interlinked events and their participating actors has not yet been thoroughly studied. Previous studies related to extracting causal relationships from text were based on laborious and incomplete hand-developed lists of explicit causal verbs, such as “causes" and “results in." Such approaches result in limited recall because standard causal verbs may not generalize well to accommodate surface variations in texts when different keywords and phrases are used to express similar causal effects. Therefore, I present a system that utilizes generalized concepts to extract causal relationships. The proposed algorithms overcome surface variations in written expressions of causal relationships and discover the domino effects between climate events and human security. This semi-supervised approach alleviates the need for labor intensive keyword list development and annotated datasets. Experimental evaluations by domain experts achieve an average precision of 82%. Qualitative assessments of causal chains show that results are consistent with the 2014 IPCC report illuminating causal mechanisms underlying the linkages between climatic stresses and social instability.
This thesis develops a unique type of textual features that generalize triplets extracted from text, by clustering them into high-level concepts. These concepts are utilized as features to detect frames in text. Compared to uni-gram and bi-gram based models, classification and clustering using generalized concepts yield better discriminating features and a higher classification accuracy with a 12% boost (i.e. from 74% to 83% F-measure) and 0.91 clustering purity for Frame/Non-Frame detection.
The automatic discovery of complex causal chains among interlinked events and their participating actors has not yet been thoroughly studied. Previous studies related to extracting causal relationships from text were based on laborious and incomplete hand-developed lists of explicit causal verbs, such as “causes" and “results in." Such approaches result in limited recall because standard causal verbs may not generalize well to accommodate surface variations in texts when different keywords and phrases are used to express similar causal effects. Therefore, I present a system that utilizes generalized concepts to extract causal relationships. The proposed algorithms overcome surface variations in written expressions of causal relationships and discover the domino effects between climate events and human security. This semi-supervised approach alleviates the need for labor intensive keyword list development and annotated datasets. Experimental evaluations by domain experts achieve an average precision of 82%. Qualitative assessments of causal chains show that results are consistent with the 2014 IPCC report illuminating causal mechanisms underlying the linkages between climatic stresses and social instability.
ContributorsAlashri, Saud (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Desouza, Kevin C. (Committee member) / Maciejewski, Ross (Committee member) / Hsiao, Sharon (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
In healthcare facilities, health information systems (HISs) are used to serve different purposes. The radiology department adopts multiple HISs in managing their operations and patient care. In general, the HISs that touch radiology fall into two categories: tracking HISs and archive HISs. Electronic Health Records (EHR) is a typical tracking HIS, which tracks the care each patient receives at multiple encounters and facilities. Archive HISs are typically specialized databases to store large-size data collected as part of the patient care. A typical example of an archive HIS is the Picture Archive and Communication System (PACS), which provides economical storage and convenient access to diagnostic images from multiple modalities. How to integrate such HISs and best utilize their data remains a challenging problem due to the disparity of HISs as well as high-dimensionality and heterogeneity of the data. My PhD dissertation research includes three inter-connected and integrated topics and focuses on designing integrated HISs and further developing statistical models and machine learning algorithms for process and patient care improvement.
Topic 1: Design of super-HIS and tracking of quality of care (QoC). My research developed an information technology that integrates multiple HISs in radiology, and proposed QoC metrics defined upon the data that measure various dimensions of care. The DDD assisted the clinical practices and enabled an effective intervention for reducing lengthy radiologist turnaround times for patients.
Topic 2: Monitoring and change detection of QoC data streams for process improvement. With the super-HIS in place, high-dimensional data streams of QoC metrics are generated. I developed a statistical model for monitoring high- dimensional data streams that integrated Singular Vector Decomposition (SVD) and process control. The algorithm was applied to QoC metrics data, and additionally extended to another application of monitoring traffic data in communication networks.
Topic 3: Deep transfer learning of archive HIS data for computer-aided diagnosis (CAD). The novelty of the CAD system is the development of a deep transfer learning algorithm that combines the ideas of transfer learning and multi- modality image integration under the deep learning framework. Our system achieved high accuracy in breast cancer diagnosis compared with conventional machine learning algorithms.
Topic 1: Design of super-HIS and tracking of quality of care (QoC). My research developed an information technology that integrates multiple HISs in radiology, and proposed QoC metrics defined upon the data that measure various dimensions of care. The DDD assisted the clinical practices and enabled an effective intervention for reducing lengthy radiologist turnaround times for patients.
Topic 2: Monitoring and change detection of QoC data streams for process improvement. With the super-HIS in place, high-dimensional data streams of QoC metrics are generated. I developed a statistical model for monitoring high- dimensional data streams that integrated Singular Vector Decomposition (SVD) and process control. The algorithm was applied to QoC metrics data, and additionally extended to another application of monitoring traffic data in communication networks.
Topic 3: Deep transfer learning of archive HIS data for computer-aided diagnosis (CAD). The novelty of the CAD system is the development of a deep transfer learning algorithm that combines the ideas of transfer learning and multi- modality image integration under the deep learning framework. Our system achieved high accuracy in breast cancer diagnosis compared with conventional machine learning algorithms.
ContributorsWang, Kun (Author) / Li, Jing (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Zwart, Christine M. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
The recent technological advances enable the collection of various complex, heterogeneous and high-dimensional data in biomedical domains. The increasing availability of the high-dimensional biomedical data creates the needs of new machine learning models for effective data analysis and knowledge discovery. This dissertation introduces several unsupervised and supervised methods to help understand the data, discover the patterns and improve the decision making. All the proposed methods can generalize to other industrial fields.
The first topic of this dissertation focuses on the data clustering. Data clustering is often the first step for analyzing a dataset without the label information. Clustering high-dimensional data with mixed categorical and numeric attributes remains a challenging, yet important task. A clustering algorithm based on tree ensembles, CRAFTER, is proposed to tackle this task in a scalable manner.
The second part of this dissertation aims to develop data representation methods for genome sequencing data, a special type of high-dimensional data in the biomedical domain. The proposed data representation method, Bag-of-Segments, can summarize the key characteristics of the genome sequence into a small number of features with good interpretability.
The third part of this dissertation introduces an end-to-end deep neural network model, GCRNN, for time series classification with emphasis on both the accuracy and the interpretation. GCRNN contains a convolutional network component to extract high-level features, and a recurrent network component to enhance the modeling of the temporal characteristics. A feed-forward fully connected network with the sparse group lasso regularization is used to generate the final classification and provide good interpretability.
The last topic centers around the dimensionality reduction methods for time series data. A good dimensionality reduction method is important for the storage, decision making and pattern visualization for time series data. The CRNN autoencoder is proposed to not only achieve low reconstruction error, but also generate discriminative features. A variational version of this autoencoder has great potential for applications such as anomaly detection and process control.
The first topic of this dissertation focuses on the data clustering. Data clustering is often the first step for analyzing a dataset without the label information. Clustering high-dimensional data with mixed categorical and numeric attributes remains a challenging, yet important task. A clustering algorithm based on tree ensembles, CRAFTER, is proposed to tackle this task in a scalable manner.
The second part of this dissertation aims to develop data representation methods for genome sequencing data, a special type of high-dimensional data in the biomedical domain. The proposed data representation method, Bag-of-Segments, can summarize the key characteristics of the genome sequence into a small number of features with good interpretability.
The third part of this dissertation introduces an end-to-end deep neural network model, GCRNN, for time series classification with emphasis on both the accuracy and the interpretation. GCRNN contains a convolutional network component to extract high-level features, and a recurrent network component to enhance the modeling of the temporal characteristics. A feed-forward fully connected network with the sparse group lasso regularization is used to generate the final classification and provide good interpretability.
The last topic centers around the dimensionality reduction methods for time series data. A good dimensionality reduction method is important for the storage, decision making and pattern visualization for time series data. The CRNN autoencoder is proposed to not only achieve low reconstruction error, but also generate discriminative features. A variational version of this autoencoder has great potential for applications such as anomaly detection and process control.
ContributorsLin, Sangdi (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Kocher, Jean-Pierre A (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Escobedo, Adolfo R. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Image-based process monitoring has recently attracted increasing attention due to the advancement of the sensing technologies. However, existing process monitoring methods fail to fully utilize the spatial information of images due to their complex characteristics including the high dimensionality and complex spatial structures. Recent advancement of the unsupervised deep models such as a generative adversarial network (GAN) and generative adversarial autoencoder (AAE) has enabled to learn the complex spatial structures automatically. Inspired by this advancement, we propose an anomaly detection framework based on the AAE for unsupervised anomaly detection for images. AAE combines the power of GAN with the variational autoencoder, which serves as a nonlinear dimension reduction technique with regularization from the discriminator. Based on this, we propose a monitoring statistic efficiently capturing the change of the image data. The performance of the proposed AAE-based anomaly detection algorithm is validated through a simulation study and real case study for rolling defect detection.
ContributorsYeh, Huai-Ming (Author) / Yan, Hao (Thesis advisor) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Li, Jing (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Due to the popularity of the movie industry, a film's opening weekend box-office performance is of great interest not only to movie studios, but to the general public, as well. In hopes of maximizing a film's opening weekend revenue, movie studios invest heavily in pre-release advertisement. The most visible advertisement is the movie trailer, which, in no more than two minutes and thirty seconds, serves as many people's first introduction to a film. The question, however, is how can we be confident that a trailer will succeed in its promotional task, and bring about the audience a studio expects? In this thesis, we use machine learning classification techniques to determine the effectiveness of a movie trailer in the promotion of its namesake. We accomplish this by creating a predictive model that automatically analyzes the audio and visual characteristics of a movie trailer to determine whether or not a film's opening will be successful by earning at least 35% of a film's production budget during its first U.S. box office weekend. Our predictive model performed reasonably well, achieving an accuracy of 68.09% in a binary classification. Accuracy increased to 78.62% when including genre in our predictive model.
ContributorsWilliams, Terrance D'Mitri (Author) / Pon-Barry, Heather (Thesis director) / Zafarani, Reza (Committee member) / Maciejewski, Ross (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Machine learning models are increasingly being deployed in real-world applications where their predictions are used to make critical decisions in a variety of domains. The proliferation of such models has led to a burgeoning need to ensure the reliability and safety of these models, given the potential negative consequences of model vulnerabilities. The complexity of machine learning models, along with the extensive data sets they analyze, can result in unpredictable and unintended outcomes. Model vulnerabilities may manifest due to errors in data input, algorithm design, or model deployment, which can have significant implications for both individuals and society. To prevent such negative outcomes, it is imperative to identify model vulnerabilities at an early stage in the development process. This will aid in guaranteeing the integrity, dependability, and safety of the models, thus mitigating potential risks and enabling the full potential of these technologies to be realized. However, enumerating vulnerabilities can be challenging due to the complexity of the real-world environment. Visual analytics, situated at the intersection of human-computer interaction, computer graphics, and artificial intelligence, offers a promising approach for achieving high interpretability of complex black-box models, thus reducing the cost of obtaining insights into potential vulnerabilities of models. This research is devoted to designing novel visual analytics methods to support the identification and analysis of model vulnerabilities. Specifically, generalizable visual analytics frameworks are instantiated to explore vulnerabilities in machine learning models concerning security (adversarial attacks and data perturbation) and fairness (algorithmic bias). In the end, a visual analytics approach is proposed to enable domain experts to explain and diagnose the model improvement of addressing identified vulnerabilities of machine learning models in a human-in-the-loop fashion. The proposed methods hold the potential to enhance the security and fairness of machine learning models deployed in critical real-world applications.
ContributorsXie, Tiankai (Author) / Maciejewski, Ross (Thesis advisor) / Liu, Huan (Committee member) / Bryan, Chris (Committee member) / Tong, Hanghang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Live streaming has risen to significant popularity in the recent past and largely this live streaming is a feature of existing social networks like Facebook, Instagram, and Snapchat. However, there does exist at least one social network entirely devoted to live streaming, and specifically the live streaming of video games, Twitch. This social network is unique for a number of reasons, not least because of its hyper-focus on live content and this uniqueness has challenges for social media researchers.
Despite this uniqueness, almost no scientific work has been performed on this public social network. Thus, it is unclear what user interaction features present on other social networks exist on Twitch. Investigating the interactions between users and identifying which, if any, of the common user behaviors on social network exist on Twitch is an important step in understanding how Twitch fits in to the social media ecosystem. For example, there are users that have large followings on Twitch and amass a large number of viewers, but do those users exert influence over the behavior of other user the way that popular users on Twitter do?
This task, however, will not be trivial. The same hyper-focus on live content that makes Twitch unique in the social network space invalidates many of the traditional approaches to social network analysis. Thus, new algorithms and techniques must be developed in order to tap this data source. In this thesis, a novel algorithm for finding games whose releases have made a significant impact on the network is described as well as a novel algorithm for detecting and identifying influential players of games. In addition, the Twitch network is described in detail along with the data that was collected in order to power the two previously described algorithms.
Despite this uniqueness, almost no scientific work has been performed on this public social network. Thus, it is unclear what user interaction features present on other social networks exist on Twitch. Investigating the interactions between users and identifying which, if any, of the common user behaviors on social network exist on Twitch is an important step in understanding how Twitch fits in to the social media ecosystem. For example, there are users that have large followings on Twitch and amass a large number of viewers, but do those users exert influence over the behavior of other user the way that popular users on Twitter do?
This task, however, will not be trivial. The same hyper-focus on live content that makes Twitch unique in the social network space invalidates many of the traditional approaches to social network analysis. Thus, new algorithms and techniques must be developed in order to tap this data source. In this thesis, a novel algorithm for finding games whose releases have made a significant impact on the network is described as well as a novel algorithm for detecting and identifying influential players of games. In addition, the Twitch network is described in detail along with the data that was collected in order to power the two previously described algorithms.
ContributorsJones, Isaac (Author) / Liu, Huan (Thesis advisor) / Maciejewski, Ross (Committee member) / Shakarian, Paulo (Committee member) / Agarwal, Nitin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019