Matching Items (5)
Filtering by
- All Subjects: Machine Learning
- Creators: McCulloch, Robert
- Member of: Barrett, The Honors College Thesis/Creative Project Collection
- Resource Type: Text
- Status: Published
Description
Cryptocurrencies have become one of the most fascinating forms of currency and economics due to their fluctuating values and lack of centralization. This project attempts to use machine learning methods to effectively model in-sample data for Bitcoin and Ethereum using rule induction methods. The dataset is cleaned by removing entries with missing data. The new column is created to measure price difference to create a more accurate analysis on the change in price. Eight relevant variables are selected using cross validation: the total number of bitcoins, the total size of the blockchains, the hash rate, mining difficulty, revenue from mining, transaction fees, the cost of transactions and the estimated transaction volume. The in-sample data is modeled using a simple tree fit, first with one variable and then with eight. Using all eight variables, the in-sample model and data have a correlation of 0.6822657. The in-sample model is improved by first applying bootstrap aggregation (also known as bagging) to fit 400 decision trees to the in-sample data using one variable. Then the random forests technique is applied to the data using all eight variables. This results in a correlation between the model and data of 9.9443413. The random forests technique is then applied to an Ethereum dataset, resulting in a correlation of 9.6904798. Finally, an out-of-sample model is created for Bitcoin and Ethereum using random forests, with a benchmark correlation of 0.03 for financial data. The correlation between the training model and the testing data for Bitcoin was 0.06957639, while for Ethereum the correlation was -0.171125. In conclusion, it is confirmed that cryptocurrencies can have accurate in-sample models by applying the random forests method to a dataset. However, out-of-sample modeling is more difficult, but in some cases better than typical forms of financial data. It should also be noted that cryptocurrency data has similar properties to other related financial datasets, realizing future potential for system modeling for cryptocurrency within the financial world.
ContributorsBrowning, Jacob Christian (Author) / Meuth, Ryan (Thesis director) / Jones, Donald (Committee member) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
My project goes over creating a probability model to accurately predict the probability of a shot in the NHL becoming a goal. It explores different types of models to produce the most accurate model. The study explains which variables contribute most to whether a shot results in a goal or not and of those variables how teams can control them to have the most success.
ContributorsLachapelle, William (Author) / McCulloch, Robert (Thesis director) / Schneider, Laurence (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor)
Created2023-05
Description
My project goes over creating a probability model to accurately predict the probability of a shot in the NHL becoming a goal. It explores different types of models to produce the most accurate model. The study explains which variables contribute most to whether a shot results in a goal or not and of those variables how teams can control them to have the most success.
ContributorsLachapelle, William (Author) / McCulloch, Robert (Thesis director) / Schneider, Laurence (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor)
Created2023-05
Description
The number of extreme wildfires is on the rise globally, and predicting the size of a fire will help officials make appropriate decisions to mitigate the risk the fire poses against the environment and humans. This study attempts to find the burned area of fires in the United States based on attributes such as time, weather, and location of the fire using machine learning methods.
ContributorsPrabagaran, Padma (Author, Co-author) / Meuth, Ryan (Thesis director) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2022-12
Using Machine Learning Classification Techniques to Predict Recessionary Periods in the U.S. Economy
Description
The goal of this research project is to determine how beneficial machine learning (ML) techniquescan be in predicting recessions. Past work has utilized a multitude of classification methods from Probit models to linear Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and obtained accuracies nearing 60-70%, where some models even predicted the Great Recession based off data from the previous 50 years. This paper will build on past work, by starting with less complex classification techniques that are more broadly used in recession forecasting and end by incorporating more complex ML models that produce higher accuracies than their more primitive counterparts. Many models were tested in this analysis and the findings here corroborate past work that the SVM methodology produces more accurate results than currently used probit models, but adds on that other ML models produced sufficient accuracy as well.
ContributorsHogan, Carter (Author) / McCulloch, Robert (Thesis director) / Pereira, Claudiney (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2022-05