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- All Subjects: Machine Learning
- Genre: Masters Thesis
- Member of: ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Description
Over the years, the growing penetration of renewable energy into the electricity market has resulted in a significant change in the electricity market price. This change makes the existing forecasting method prone to error, decreasing the economic benefits. Hence, more precise forecasting methods need to be developed. This paper starts with a survey and benchmark of existing machine learning approaches for forecasting the real-time market (RTM) price. While these methods provide sufficient modeling capability via supervised learning, their accuracy is still limited due to the single data source, e.g., historical price information only. In this paper, a novel two-stage supervised learning approach is proposed by diversifying the data sources such as highly correlated power data. This idea is inspired by the recent load forecasting methods that have shown extremely well performances. Specifically, the proposed two-stage method, namely the rerouted method, learns two types of mapping rules. The first one is the mapping between the historical wind power and the historical price. The second is the forecasting rule for wind generation. Based on the two rules, we forecast the price via the forecasted generation and the first learned mapping between power and price. Additionally, we observed that it is not the more training data the better, leading to our validation steps to quantify the best training intervals for different datasets. We conduct comparisons of numerical results between existing methods and the proposed methods based on datasets from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). For each machine learning step, we examine different learning methods, such as polynomial regression, support vector regression, neural network, and deep neural network. The results show that the proposed method is significantly better than existing approaches when renewables are involved.
ContributorsLuo, Shuman (Author) / Weng, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Lei, Qin (Committee member) / Qin, Jiangchao (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Technology has several features that make it particularly attractive for specific transmission applications. Recent years have witnessed an unprecedented growth in the number of the HVDC projects, which demonstrates a heightened interest in the HVDC technology. In parallel, the use of renewable energy sources has dramatically increased. For instance, Kuwait has recently announced a renewable project to be completed in 2035; this project aims to produce 15% of the countrys energy consumption from renewable sources. However, facilities that use renewable sources, such as solar and wind, to provide clean energy, are mostly placed in remote areas, as their installation requires a massive space of free land. Consequently, considerable challenges arise in terms of transmitting power generated from renewable sources of energy in remote areas to urban areas for further consumption.
The present thesis investigates different transmission line systems for transmitting bulk energy from renewable sources. Specifically, two systems will be focused on: the high-voltage alternating current (HVAC) system and the high-voltage direct current (HVDC) system. In order to determine the most efficient way of transmitting bulk energy from renewable sources, different aspects of the aforementioned two types of systems are analyzed. Limitations inherent in both HVAC and HVDC systems have been discussed.
At present, artificial intelligence plays an important role in power system control and monitoring. Consequently, in this thesis, the fault issue has been analyzed in transmission systems, with a specific consideration of machine learning tools that can help monitor transmission systems by detecting fault locations. These tools, called models, are used to analyze the collected data. In the present thesis, a focus on such models as linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), linear support vector machine (LSVM) , and adaptive boost (AdaBoost). Finally, the accuracy of each model is evaluated and discussed. The machine learning concept introduced in the present thesis lays down the foundation for future research in this area so that to enable further research on the efficient ways to improve the performance of transmission line components and power systems.
The present thesis investigates different transmission line systems for transmitting bulk energy from renewable sources. Specifically, two systems will be focused on: the high-voltage alternating current (HVAC) system and the high-voltage direct current (HVDC) system. In order to determine the most efficient way of transmitting bulk energy from renewable sources, different aspects of the aforementioned two types of systems are analyzed. Limitations inherent in both HVAC and HVDC systems have been discussed.
At present, artificial intelligence plays an important role in power system control and monitoring. Consequently, in this thesis, the fault issue has been analyzed in transmission systems, with a specific consideration of machine learning tools that can help monitor transmission systems by detecting fault locations. These tools, called models, are used to analyze the collected data. In the present thesis, a focus on such models as linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), linear support vector machine (LSVM) , and adaptive boost (AdaBoost). Finally, the accuracy of each model is evaluated and discussed. The machine learning concept introduced in the present thesis lays down the foundation for future research in this area so that to enable further research on the efficient ways to improve the performance of transmission line components and power systems.
ContributorsAlbannai, Bassam Ahmad (Author) / Weng, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Meng (Committee member) / Dahal, Som (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019