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Risky Decision-Making Behavior: An Analysis of The Gambler's Fallacy and The Near-Miss Effect

Description
There are two common cognitive distortions present in risky decision-making behavior. The gambler's fallacy is the notion that a random game of chance is potentially biased by previous outcomes, and the near-miss effect is the overestimation of the probability of winning immediately after barely missing a win. This study replicated…

There are two common cognitive distortions present in risky decision-making behavior. The gambler's fallacy is the notion that a random game of chance is potentially biased by previous outcomes, and the near-miss effect is the overestimation of the probability of winning immediately after barely missing a win. This study replicated a portion of the methods of Clark et al. (2014) in an attempt to support the presence of these two fallacies in online simulated risky decision-making tasks. One hundred individuals were recruited and asked to perform one of two classic gambling tasks, either predict the outcome of a dichromatic roulette wheel or spin a simplified, two-reel slot machine. An analysis of color predictions as a function of run length revealed a classic gambler's fallacy effect in the roulette wheel task. A heightened motivation to continue playing after a win, but not a near or full miss, was seen in the slot machine task. How pleased an individual was with the results of the previous round directly affected his or her interest in continuing to play in both experiments. These findings indicate that the gambler's fallacy is present in online decision-making simulations involving risk, but that the near-miss effect is not.
ContributorsCatinchi, Alexis Leigh (Author) / McClure, Samuel (Thesis director) / Glenberg, Arthur (Committee member) / Gatewood, Kira (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05

Brain Processes in Self-Regulation: An Electroencephalography (EEG) Study

Description
Temporal discounting refers to our tendency to discount the value of future rewards. At the extreme, temporal discounting can give rise to detrimental myopic decision-making. Most studies examining the neural basis of temporal discounting in people have been performed using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). However, fMRI has relatively poor…

Temporal discounting refers to our tendency to discount the value of future rewards. At the extreme, temporal discounting can give rise to detrimental myopic decision-making. Most studies examining the neural basis of temporal discounting in people have been performed using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). However, fMRI has relatively poor temporal resolution compared with the speed at which people make choices, so understanding choice dynamics using fMRI is difficult. We address the issue utilizing electroencephalography (EEG) to study cortical processes related to temporal discounting. The fMRI literature has found that a network of fronto-parietal brain regions plays an important role during the decision-making process. We aim to explore activity in these regions during the decision process and determine how cortical activity relates to choice parameters. Based on prior fMRI studies, we hypothesized that dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) may act as a regulator of dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) and there will be an increase in dlPFC activity for more difficult decisions. We also hypothesized that neural activity may be directly related to the temporal discount rate we estimate behaviorally. We utilized regression analysis to determine the relationship. The results found supported our hypotheses. This study may open the door to a better understanding of the dynamic of brain regions while performing a temporal discounting task.
ContributorsTanwisuth, Koranis (Author) / McClure, Samuel (Thesis director) / Brewer, Gene (Committee member) / School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
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Scientific Detail and Juror Decision-Making in Capital Scenarios

Description
By providing vignettes with manipulated scientific evidence, this research examined if including more or less scientific detail affected decision-making in regards to the death penalty. Participants were randomly assigned one of the two manipulations (less science and more science) after reading a short scenario introducing the mock capital trial and…

By providing vignettes with manipulated scientific evidence, this research examined if including more or less scientific detail affected decision-making in regards to the death penalty. Participants were randomly assigned one of the two manipulations (less science and more science) after reading a short scenario introducing the mock capital trial and their role as jury members. Survey respondents were told that a jury had previously found the defendant guilty and they would now deliberate the appropriate punishment. Before being exposed to the manipulation, respondents answered questions pertaining to their prior belief in the death penalty, as well as their level of support of procedural justice and science. These questions provided a baseline to compare to their sentencing decision. Participants were then asked what sentence they would impose \u2014 life in prison or death \u2014 and how the fMRI evidence presented by an expert witness for the defense affected their decision. Both quantitative and qualitative measures were used to identify how the level of scientific detail affected their decision. Our intended predictor variable (level of scientific detail) did not affect juror decision-making. In fact, the qualitative results revealed a variety of interpretations of the scientific evidence used both in favor of death and in favor of life. When looking at what did predict juror decision-making, gender, prior belief in the death penalty, and political ideology all were significant predictors. As in previous literature, the fMRI evidence in our study had mixed results with regards to implementation of the death penalty. This held true in both of our manipulations, showing that despite the level of detail in evidence intended for mitigation, jurors with preconceived notions may still disregard the evidence, and some jurors may even view it is aggravating and thus increase the likelihood of a death sentence for a defendant with such brain abnormalities.
ContributorsBerry, Megan Cheyenne (Author) / Fradella, Hank (Thesis director) / Pardini, Dustin (Committee member) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
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The direct & indirect links from facets of childhood trauma to arousability, impaired control, alcohol use, & alcohol-related problems.

Description

Hyper-arousal theory presumes that experiencing trauma can increase one’s sense of fight or flight responses or generalized sense of arousability (Riemann et al., 2010). While this theory has been examined in studies regarding insomnia (e.g. Schwandt et al., 2013) it has yet to be examine with dysregulated drinking outcomes such…

Hyper-arousal theory presumes that experiencing trauma can increase one’s sense of fight or flight responses or generalized sense of arousability (Riemann et al., 2010). While this theory has been examined in studies regarding insomnia (e.g. Schwandt et al., 2013) it has yet to be examine with dysregulated drinking outcomes such as impaired control over alcohol use. Impaired control over alcohol use (IC) reflects drinking beyond one’s own self-proscribed limits for one’s own drinking behaviors (Heather et al., 1993). According to multiple review papers on the topic (Leeman et al., 2012; 2014), IC is an understudied topic regarding alcohol use disorders (AUDs). Thus, we sought to explore a pathway from facets of childhood trauma (emotional, physical, & sexual abuse, & neglect) versus a supportive family to arousability to drinking outcomes (i.e. IC, alcohol use, & alcohol-related problems). Method: We fit a multiple-group structural equation model with 835 (368 women/ 467 men) university student volunteers. As our model failed the overall invariance test, χ2Δ (20 df) = 55.788, p < .001, we allowed our hypothesized model to moderate on sex. Results: The direct link from sexual abuse to both IC and alcohol-related-problems was stronger for men than women. Emotional abuse was directly linked to higher levels of arousability among women, whereas an emotionally supportive family was related to lesser degrees of arousability among men. Impaired control mediated the indirect link between higher levels of arousability and alcohol use for both sexes. Impaired control also mediated the indirect link between physical neglect and alcohol-related problems among both sexes. Higher levels of emotional abuse were indirectly linked to both more alcohol use & problems through increased arousability and in turn, more IC among women. Higher levels of sexual abuse were indirectly linked to more alcohol problems through higher degrees of impaired control among men. Conclusions: We found evidence in favor of the Hyper-arousability Theory regarding dysregulated drinking with a direct link between arousability and IC. While physical neglect appears to affect both sexes drinking behaviors, emotional abuse may play a stronger role for women than men, while sexual abuse may play a stronger role among men.
ContributorsOng, Annie (Author) / Patock-Peckham, Julie (Thesis director) / Infurna, Frank (Committee member) / McClure, Samuel (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor)
Created2021-12