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We model communication among social insects as an interacting particle system in which individuals perform one of two tasks and neighboring sites anti-mimic one another. Parameters of our model are a probability of defection 2 (0; 1) and relative cost ci > 0 to the individual performing task i. We

We model communication among social insects as an interacting particle system in which individuals perform one of two tasks and neighboring sites anti-mimic one another. Parameters of our model are a probability of defection 2 (0; 1) and relative cost ci > 0 to the individual performing task i. We examine this process on complete graphs, bipartite graphs, and the integers, answering questions about the relationship between communication, defection rates and the division of labor. Assuming the division of labor is ideal when exactly half of the colony is performing each task, we nd that on some bipartite graphs and the integers it can eventually be made arbitrarily close to optimal if defection rates are sufficiently small. On complete graphs the fraction of individuals performing each task is also closest to one half when there is no defection, but is bounded by a constant dependent on the relative costs of each task.
ContributorsArcuri, Alesandro Antonio (Author) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Thesis director) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Fewell, Jennifer (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
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Description
Serge Galams voting systems and public debate models are used to model voting behaviors of two competing opinions in democratic societies. Galam assumes that individuals in the population are independently in favor of one opinion with a fixed probability p, making the initial number of that type of opinion a

Serge Galams voting systems and public debate models are used to model voting behaviors of two competing opinions in democratic societies. Galam assumes that individuals in the population are independently in favor of one opinion with a fixed probability p, making the initial number of that type of opinion a binomial random variable. This analysis revisits Galams models from the point of view of the hypergeometric random variable by assuming the initial number of individuals in favor of an opinion is a fixed deterministic number. This assumption is more realistic, especially when analyzing small populations. Evolution of the models is based on majority rules, with a bias introduced when there is a tie. For the hier- archical voting system model, in order to derive the probability that opinion +1 would win, the analysis was done by reversing time and assuming that an individual in favor of opinion +1 wins. Then, working backwards we counted the number of configurations at the next lowest level that could induce each possible configuration at the level above, and continued this process until reaching the bottom level, i.e., the initial population. Using this method, we were able to derive an explicit formula for the probability that an individual in favor of opinion +1 wins given any initial count of that opinion, for any group size greater than or equal to three. For the public debate model, we counted the total number of individuals in favor of opinion +1 at each time step and used this variable to define a random walk. Then, we used first-step analysis to derive an explicit formula for the probability that an individual in favor of opinion +1 wins given any initial count of that opinion for group sizes of three. The spatial public debate model evolves based on the proportional rule. For the spatial model, the most natural graphical representation to construct the process results in a model that is not mathematically tractable. Thus, we defined a different graphical representation that is mathematically equivalent to the first graphical representation, but in this model it is possible to define a dual process that is mathematically tractable. Using this graphical representation we prove clustering in 1D and 2D and coexistence in higher dimensions following the same approach as for the voter model interacting particle system.
ContributorsTaylor, Nicole Robyn (Co-author) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Co-author, Thesis director) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Hurlbert, Glenn (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-05
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Description
Cryptocurrencies have become one of the most fascinating forms of currency and economics due to their fluctuating values and lack of centralization. This project attempts to use machine learning methods to effectively model in-sample data for Bitcoin and Ethereum using rule induction methods. The dataset is cleaned by removing entries

Cryptocurrencies have become one of the most fascinating forms of currency and economics due to their fluctuating values and lack of centralization. This project attempts to use machine learning methods to effectively model in-sample data for Bitcoin and Ethereum using rule induction methods. The dataset is cleaned by removing entries with missing data. The new column is created to measure price difference to create a more accurate analysis on the change in price. Eight relevant variables are selected using cross validation: the total number of bitcoins, the total size of the blockchains, the hash rate, mining difficulty, revenue from mining, transaction fees, the cost of transactions and the estimated transaction volume. The in-sample data is modeled using a simple tree fit, first with one variable and then with eight. Using all eight variables, the in-sample model and data have a correlation of 0.6822657. The in-sample model is improved by first applying bootstrap aggregation (also known as bagging) to fit 400 decision trees to the in-sample data using one variable. Then the random forests technique is applied to the data using all eight variables. This results in a correlation between the model and data of 9.9443413. The random forests technique is then applied to an Ethereum dataset, resulting in a correlation of 9.6904798. Finally, an out-of-sample model is created for Bitcoin and Ethereum using random forests, with a benchmark correlation of 0.03 for financial data. The correlation between the training model and the testing data for Bitcoin was 0.06957639, while for Ethereum the correlation was -0.171125. In conclusion, it is confirmed that cryptocurrencies can have accurate in-sample models by applying the random forests method to a dataset. However, out-of-sample modeling is more difficult, but in some cases better than typical forms of financial data. It should also be noted that cryptocurrency data has similar properties to other related financial datasets, realizing future potential for system modeling for cryptocurrency within the financial world.
ContributorsBrowning, Jacob Christian (Author) / Meuth, Ryan (Thesis director) / Jones, Donald (Committee member) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
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Description
We study two models of a competitive game in which players continuously receive points and wager them in one-on-one battles. In each model the loser of a battle has their points reset, while the points the winner receives is what sets the two models apart. In the knockout model the

We study two models of a competitive game in which players continuously receive points and wager them in one-on-one battles. In each model the loser of a battle has their points reset, while the points the winner receives is what sets the two models apart. In the knockout model the winner receives no new points, while in the winner-takes-all model the points that the loser had are added to the winner's total. Recurrence properties are assessed for both models: the knockout model is recurrent except for the all-zero state, and the winner-takes-all model is transient, but retains some aspect of recurrence. In addition, we study the population-level allocation of points; for the winner-takes-all model we show explicitly that the proportion of individuals having any number j of points, j=0,1,... approaches a stationary distribution that can be computed recursively. Graphs of numerical simulations are included to exemplify the results proved.
ContributorsVanKirk, Maxwell Joshua (Author) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Thesis director) / Foxall, Eric (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2016-12
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Description
The Axelrod Model is an agent-based adaptive model. The Axelrod Model shows the eects of a mechanism of convergent social inuence. Do local conver- gences generate global polarization ? Will it be possible for all dierences between individuals in a population comprised of neighbors to disappear ? There are many

The Axelrod Model is an agent-based adaptive model. The Axelrod Model shows the eects of a mechanism of convergent social inuence. Do local conver- gences generate global polarization ? Will it be possible for all dierences between individuals in a population comprised of neighbors to disappear ? There are many mechanisms to approach this issue ; the Axelrod Model is one of them.
ContributorsYu, Yili (Author) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Thesis director) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Brooks, Dan (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2013-05
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Description

The COVID-19 pandemic has and will continue to radically shift the workplace. An increasing percentage of the workforce desires flexible working options and, as such, firms are likely to require less office space going forward. Additionally, the economic downturn caused by the pandemic provides an opportunity for companies to secure

The COVID-19 pandemic has and will continue to radically shift the workplace. An increasing percentage of the workforce desires flexible working options and, as such, firms are likely to require less office space going forward. Additionally, the economic downturn caused by the pandemic provides an opportunity for companies to secure favorable rent rates on new lease agreements. This project aims to evaluate and measure Company X’s potential cost savings from terminating current leases and downsizing office space in five selected cities. Along with city-specific real estate market research and forecasts, we employ a four-stage model of Company X’s real estate negotiation process to analyze whether existing lease agreements in these cities should be renewed or terminated.

ContributorsSaker, Logan (Co-author) / Ries, Sarah (Co-author) / Hegardt, Brandon (Co-author) / Patterson, Jack (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
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Description

Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, financial institutions faced regulatory changes due to inherent weaknesses that were exposed by the recession. Within the United States, regulation came via the passing of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in 2010, which was heavily influenced by the internationally

Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, financial institutions faced regulatory changes due to inherent weaknesses that were exposed by the recession. Within the United States, regulation came via the passing of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in 2010, which was heavily influenced by the internationally focused Basel III accord. A key component to both of these sets of regulations focused on raising the capital requirements for financial institutions, as well as creating capital buffers to help protect solvency during economic downturns in the future. The goal of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of these changes to capital requirements, and to hypothesize as to what would happen if the modern banking system experienced the COVID-19 pandemic recession with the capital and leverage levels of the banking institutions circa 2007. To accomplish this, data from the Federal Reserve describing the capital and leverage ratios of the banking industry will be evaluated during both the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, as well as during the COVID-19 Recession. Specifically, we will look at by how much capital was improved due to Dodd-Frank/Basel III, the resiliency of the capital and leverage ratios during the modern COVID-19 recession, and we will look at the average drop in capital levels caused by the COVID-19 recession and apply these percentage changes to the leverage/capital levels seen in 2007. Given the results, it is clear to see that the change in capital requirements along with the counter-cyclical buffers described in Dodd-Frank and Basel III allowed the banking system to function throughout the COVID recession without approaching insolvency in the slightest, something that ailed many large banks and firms during the Global Financial Crisis. As an answer to our hypothetical, we found that the drop seen affecting the measures of bank capital experienced during the COVID pandemic when applied to values seen at the beginning of the 2007 recession still led to a well-capitalized banking industry as a whole, highlighting the resiliency seen during the COVID recession thanks to the capital buffers put in place, as well as the direct assistance provided by the federal government (via PPP loans and stimulus checks) and the Federal Reserve in keeping the hit on capital to minimal values throughout the pandemic.

ContributorsMiner, Jackson J (Author) / McDaniel, Cara (Thesis director) / Wong, Kelvin (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
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Description

This thesis project is part of a larger collaboration documenting the history of the ASU Biodesign Clinical Testing Laboratory (ABCTL). There are many different aspects that need to be considered when transforming to a clinical testing laboratory. This includes the different types of tests performed in the laboratory. In addition

This thesis project is part of a larger collaboration documenting the history of the ASU Biodesign Clinical Testing Laboratory (ABCTL). There are many different aspects that need to be considered when transforming to a clinical testing laboratory. This includes the different types of tests performed in the laboratory. In addition to the diagnostic polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test that is performed detecting the presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), antibody testing is also performed in clinical laboratories. Antibody testing is used to detect a previous infection. Antibodies are produced as part of the immune response against SARS-CoV-2. There are many different forms of antibody tests and their sensitives and specificities have been examined and reviewed in the literature. Antibody testing can be used to determine the seroprevalence of the disease which can inform policy decisions regarding public health strategies. The results from antibody testing can also be used for creating new therapeutics like vaccines. The ABCTL recognizes the shifting need of the community to begin testing for previous infections of SARS-CoV-2 and is developing new forms of antibody testing that can meet them.

ContributorsRuan, Ellen (Co-author) / Smetanick, Jennifer (Co-author) / Majhail, Kajol (Co-author) / Anderson, Laura (Co-author) / Breshears, Scott (Co-author) / Compton, Carolyn (Thesis director) / Magee, Mitch (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor, Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
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Description

As the return to normality in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic enters its early stages, the necessity for accurate, quick, and community-wide surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 has been emphasized. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been used across the world as a tool for monitoring the pandemic, but studies of its efficacy

As the return to normality in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic enters its early stages, the necessity for accurate, quick, and community-wide surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 has been emphasized. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been used across the world as a tool for monitoring the pandemic, but studies of its efficacy in comparison to the best-known method for surveillance, randomly selected COVID-19 testing, has limited research. This study evaluated the trends and correlations present between SARS-CoV-2 in the effluent wastewater of a large university campus and random COVID-19 testing results published by the university. A moderately strong positive correlation was found between the random testing and WBE surveillance methods (r = 0.63), and this correlation was strengthened when accommodating for lost samples during the experiment (r = 0.74).

ContributorsWright, Jillian (Author) / Halden, Rolf (Thesis director) / Driver, Erin (Committee member) / School of Music, Dance and Theatre (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
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Description

In this project, I examined the relationship between lockdowns implemented by COVID-19 and the activity of animals in urban areas. I hypothesized that animals became more active in urban areas during COVID-19 quarantine than they were before and I wanted to see if my hypothesis could be researched through Twitter

In this project, I examined the relationship between lockdowns implemented by COVID-19 and the activity of animals in urban areas. I hypothesized that animals became more active in urban areas during COVID-19 quarantine than they were before and I wanted to see if my hypothesis could be researched through Twitter crowdsourcing. I began by collecting tweets using python code, but upon examining all data output from code-based searches, I concluded that it is quicker and more efficient to use the advanced search on Twitter website. Based on my research, I can neither confirm nor deny if the appearance of wild animals is due to the COVID-19 lockdowns. However, I was able to discover a correlational relationship between these two factors in some research cases. Although my findings are mixed with regard to my original hypothesis, the impact that this phenomenon had on society cannot be denied.

ContributorsHeimlich, Kiana Raye (Author) / Dorn, Ronald (Thesis director) / Martin, Roberta (Committee member) / Donovan, Mary (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05