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Linear Modeling for Insurance Ratemaking/Reserving: Modeling Loss Development Factors for Catastrophe Claims

Description

Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance

Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on modeling catastrophes. Setting reserves for catastrophe losses is difficult due to their unpredictable and often long-tailed nature. Determining loss development factors (LDFs) to estimate the ultimate loss amounts for catastrophe events is one method for setting reserves. In an attempt to aid Company XYZ set more accurate reserves, the research conducted focuses on estimating LDFs for catastrophes which have already occurred and have been settled. Furthermore, the research describes the process used to build a linear model in R to estimate LDFs for Company XYZ's closed catastrophe claims from 2001 \u2014 2016. This linear model was used to predict a catastrophe's LDFs based on the age in weeks of the catastrophe during the first year. Back testing was also performed, as was the comparison between the estimated ultimate losses and actual losses. Future research consideration was proposed.

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2018-05

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Healthcare Cost Trend Impacts by COVID-19 in the State of Arizona

Description

Actuaries can analyze healthcare trends to determine if rates are reasonable and if reserves are adequate. In this talk, we will provide a framework of methods to analyze the healthcare trend during the pandemic. COVID-19 may influence future healthcare cost

Actuaries can analyze healthcare trends to determine if rates are reasonable and if reserves are adequate. In this talk, we will provide a framework of methods to analyze the healthcare trend during the pandemic. COVID-19 may influence future healthcare cost trends in many ways. First, direct COVID-19 costs may increase the amount of total experienced healthcare costs. However, with the implementation of social distancing, the amount of regularly scheduled care may be deferred to a future date. There are also many unknown factors regarding the transmission of the virus. Implementing epidemiology models allows us to predict infections by studying the dynamics of the disease. The correlation between infection amounts and hospitalization occupancies provide a methodology to estimate the amount of deferred and recouped amounts of regularly scheduled healthcare costs. Thus, the combination of the models allows to model the healthcare cost trend impact due to COVID-19.

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Date Created
2021-05

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Using twitter to examine animal sightings in urban areas during COVID-19 shut-downs during 2020

Description

In this project, I examined the relationship between lockdowns implemented by COVID-19 and the activity of animals in urban areas. I hypothesized that animals became more active in urban areas during COVID-19 quarantine than they were before and I wanted

In this project, I examined the relationship between lockdowns implemented by COVID-19 and the activity of animals in urban areas. I hypothesized that animals became more active in urban areas during COVID-19 quarantine than they were before and I wanted to see if my hypothesis could be researched through Twitter crowdsourcing. I began by collecting tweets using python code, but upon examining all data output from code-based searches, I concluded that it is quicker and more efficient to use the advanced search on Twitter website. Based on my research, I can neither confirm nor deny if the appearance of wild animals is due to the COVID-19 lockdowns. However, I was able to discover a correlational relationship between these two factors in some research cases. Although my findings are mixed with regard to my original hypothesis, the impact that this phenomenon had on society cannot be denied.

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2021-05

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How COVID-19 Has Affected the Social and Clinical Practices of Deaf People: A Qualitative Study

Description

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in preventative measures and has led to extensive changes in lifestyle for the vast majority of the American population. As the pandemic progresses, a growing amount of evidence shows that minority groups, such as

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in preventative measures and has led to extensive changes in lifestyle for the vast majority of the American population. As the pandemic progresses, a growing amount of evidence shows that minority groups, such as the Deaf community, are often disproportionately and uniquely affected. Deaf people are directly affected in their ability to personally socialize and continue with daily routines. More specifically, this can constitute their ability to meet new people, connect with friends/family, and to perform in their work or learning environment. It also may result in further mental health changes and an increased reliance on technology. The impact of COVID-19 on the Deaf community in clinical settings must also be considered. This includes changes in policies for in-person interpreters and a rise in telehealth. Often, these effects can be representative of the pre-existing low health literacy, frequency of miscommunication, poor treatment, and the inconvenience felt by Deaf people when trying to access healthcare. Ultimately, these effects on the Deaf community must be taken into account when attempting to create a full picture of the societal shift caused by COVID-19.

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2021-05

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Company X Collaborative Thesis: Real Estate

Description

The COVID-19 pandemic has and will continue to radically shift the workplace. An increasing percentage of the workforce desires flexible working options and, as such, firms are likely to require less office space going forward. Additionally, the economic downturn caused

The COVID-19 pandemic has and will continue to radically shift the workplace. An increasing percentage of the workforce desires flexible working options and, as such, firms are likely to require less office space going forward. Additionally, the economic downturn caused by the pandemic provides an opportunity for companies to secure favorable rent rates on new lease agreements. This project aims to evaluate and measure Company X’s potential cost savings from terminating current leases and downsizing office space in five selected cities. Along with city-specific real estate market research and forecasts, we employ a four-stage model of Company X’s real estate negotiation process to analyze whether existing lease agreements in these cities should be renewed or terminated.

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Date Created
2021-05

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It’s All About the Capital: Evaluating the Effects of the Great Recession’s Regulatory Reforms and their Impact on the COVID-19 Recession

Description

Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, financial institutions faced regulatory changes due to inherent weaknesses that were exposed by the recession. Within the United States, regulation came via the passing of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection

Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, financial institutions faced regulatory changes due to inherent weaknesses that were exposed by the recession. Within the United States, regulation came via the passing of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in 2010, which was heavily influenced by the internationally focused Basel III accord. A key component to both of these sets of regulations focused on raising the capital requirements for financial institutions, as well as creating capital buffers to help protect solvency during economic downturns in the future. The goal of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of these changes to capital requirements, and to hypothesize as to what would happen if the modern banking system experienced the COVID-19 pandemic recession with the capital and leverage levels of the banking institutions circa 2007. To accomplish this, data from the Federal Reserve describing the capital and leverage ratios of the banking industry will be evaluated during both the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, as well as during the COVID-19 Recession. Specifically, we will look at by how much capital was improved due to Dodd-Frank/Basel III, the resiliency of the capital and leverage ratios during the modern COVID-19 recession, and we will look at the average drop in capital levels caused by the COVID-19 recession and apply these percentage changes to the leverage/capital levels seen in 2007. Given the results, it is clear to see that the change in capital requirements along with the counter-cyclical buffers described in Dodd-Frank and Basel III allowed the banking system to function throughout the COVID recession without approaching insolvency in the slightest, something that ailed many large banks and firms during the Global Financial Crisis. As an answer to our hypothetical, we found that the drop seen affecting the measures of bank capital experienced during the COVID pandemic when applied to values seen at the beginning of the 2007 recession still led to a well-capitalized banking industry as a whole, highlighting the resiliency seen during the COVID recession thanks to the capital buffers put in place, as well as the direct assistance provided by the federal government (via PPP loans and stimulus checks) and the Federal Reserve in keeping the hit on capital to minimal values throughout the pandemic.

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Date Created
2021-05

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Homeward Bound: An Overview of Continuing Care at Home

Description

AARP estimates that 90% of seniors wish to remain in their homes during retirement. Seniors need assistance as they age, historically they have received assistance from either family members, nursing homes, or Continuing Care Retirement Communities. For seniors not wanting

AARP estimates that 90% of seniors wish to remain in their homes during retirement. Seniors need assistance as they age, historically they have received assistance from either family members, nursing homes, or Continuing Care Retirement Communities. For seniors not wanting any of these options, there has been very few alternatives. Now, the emergence of the continuing care at home program is providing hope for a different method of elder care moving forward. CCaH programs offer services such as: skilled nursing care, care coordination, emergency response systems, aid with personal and health care, and transportation. Such services allow seniors to continue to live in their own home with assistance as their health deteriorates over time. Currently, only 30 CCaH programs exist. With the growth of the elderly population in the coming years, this model seems poised for growth.

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Date Created
2019-05

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The Making of a COVID-19 Laboratory: Exploring SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Testing

Description

This thesis project is part of a larger collaboration documenting the history of the ASU Biodesign Clinical Testing Laboratory (ABCTL). There are many different aspects that need to be considered when transforming to a clinical testing laboratory. This includes the

This thesis project is part of a larger collaboration documenting the history of the ASU Biodesign Clinical Testing Laboratory (ABCTL). There are many different aspects that need to be considered when transforming to a clinical testing laboratory. This includes the different types of tests performed in the laboratory. In addition to the diagnostic polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test that is performed detecting the presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), antibody testing is also performed in clinical laboratories. Antibody testing is used to detect a previous infection. Antibodies are produced as part of the immune response against SARS-CoV-2. There are many different forms of antibody tests and their sensitives and specificities have been examined and reviewed in the literature. Antibody testing can be used to determine the seroprevalence of the disease which can inform policy decisions regarding public health strategies. The results from antibody testing can also be used for creating new therapeutics like vaccines. The ABCTL recognizes the shifting need of the community to begin testing for previous infections of SARS-CoV-2 and is developing new forms of antibody testing that can meet them.

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Date Created
2021-05

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Automating by Developing Model Components for the Insurance Ratemaking Actuarial Procedures

Description

The objective of this study is to build a model using R and RStudio that automates ratemaking procedures for Company XYZ’s actuaries in their commercial general liability pricing department. The purpose and importance of this objective is to allow actuaries

The objective of this study is to build a model using R and RStudio that automates ratemaking procedures for Company XYZ’s actuaries in their commercial general liability pricing department. The purpose and importance of this objective is to allow actuaries to work more efficiently and effectively by using this model that outputs the results they otherwise would have had to code and calculate on their own. Instead of spending time working towards these results, the actuaries can analyze the findings, strategize accordingly, and communicate with business partners. The model was built from R code that was later transformed to Shiny, a package within RStudio that allows for the build-up of interactive web applications. The final result is a Shiny app that first takes in multiple datasets from Company XYZ’s data warehouse and displays different views of the data in order for actuaries to make selections on development and trend methods. The app outputs the re-created ratemaking exhibits showing the resulting developed and trended loss and premium as well as the experience-based indicated rate level change based on prior selections. The ratemaking process and Shiny app functionality will be detailed in this report.

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Date Created
2022-05

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Looking at COVID-19 as a Factor in Insurance Loss Reserving Models

Description

A factor accounting for the COVID-19 pandemic was added to a generalized linear model to more accurately predict unpaid claims. COVID-19 has affected not just healthcare, but all sectors of the economy. Because of this, whether or not an automobile

A factor accounting for the COVID-19 pandemic was added to a generalized linear model to more accurately predict unpaid claims. COVID-19 has affected not just healthcare, but all sectors of the economy. Because of this, whether or not an automobile insurance claim is filed during the pandemic needs to be taken into account while estimating unpaid claims. Reserve-estimating functions such as glmReserve from the “ChainLadder” package in the statistical software R were experimented with to produce their own results. Because of their insufficiency, a manual approach to building the model turned out to be the most proficient method. Utilizing the GLM function, a model was built that emulated linear regression with a factor for COVID-19. The effects of such a model are analyzed based on effectiveness and interpretablility. A model such as this would prove useful for future calculations, especially as society is now returning to a “normal” state.

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2022-05