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No Worker Left Behind: An Analysis on a Universal Basic Income

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Many fear that the growth of automation and artificial intelligence will lead to massive unemployment since human labor would no longer be needed. Although automation does displace workers from their current jobs, it is unclear the total net effect on

Many fear that the growth of automation and artificial intelligence will lead to massive unemployment since human labor would no longer be needed. Although automation does displace workers from their current jobs, it is unclear the total net effect on jobs this period of advancement will have. One possible solution to help displaced workers is a Universal Basic Income. A Universal Basic Income(UBI) is a set payment paid to all members of society regardless of working status. Compared to current unemployment programs, a Universal Basic Income does not restrict participants in how to spend the money and is more inclusive. This paper examines the effects of a UBI on a person's motivation to work through a study on current college students. There is reason to believe that a Universal Basic Income will lead to fewer people working as people may become dependent on a base payment to meet their basic needs and not look for work. In addition, some people may drop out of their current jobs and rely on a UBI as their main form of income. The current literature does not offer a consensus opinion on this relationship and more studies are being completed with the threat of mass unemployment looming. This study shows the effects of a UBI on participants' willingness to work and then applies these results to the current economic model. With these results and new economic model, a decision about future policies surrounding a UBI can be made.

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2018-05

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An Analysis on the Impact of the Recession on Working Hours in European Countries

Description

The impact of the 2008 Great Recession was felt on a global level. While many European countries moved to
implement large fiscal adjustments in response to the financial crisis, various other economic consequences
were felt, such as inflation, public debt

The impact of the 2008 Great Recession was felt on a global level. While many European countries moved to
implement large fiscal adjustments in response to the financial crisis, various other economic consequences
were felt, such as inflation, public debt growth, and a decrease in purchasing power. A result from these
consequences that typically occur every recession are demand shocks within the employment sector. As firms
are put into tight financial positions, employers are forced to make employment decisions to cut costs for
long-term sustainability, such as laying off workers, or reducing their working hours.

This paper aims to investigate how weekly working hours are impacted by shocks to the economy across European countries. Using the 2008 recession as the basis, an empirical analysis was conducted with panel data for 32 countries over 33 years, with average weekly working hours across four occupational groups as the variable of interest, and various economic indicators such as GDP growth as independent variables. Additionally, countries were split up and grouped based on geographical location to examine potential country and region-specific trends.
Over time, there is a decreasing trend in weekly working hours across all observed occupations and countries. This decreasing trend continues during the 2008 recession, but the slope of decrease is not significant relative to the entire time period. However, when dis-aggregated into occupational groups with a distinction between full-time and part-time workers, the trends in working hours are a much more noticeable, both during the recession and over the entire time frame of observation.

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2019-05

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Probabilistic Voting: An Addition to theDowns Two Party Voting Model

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This paper proposes that voter decision making is determined by more than just the policy positions adopted by the candidates in the election as proposed by Antony Downs (1957). Using a vector valued voting model proposed by William Foster (2014),

This paper proposes that voter decision making is determined by more than just the policy positions adopted by the candidates in the election as proposed by Antony Downs (1957). Using a vector valued voting model proposed by William Foster (2014), voter behavior can be described by a mathematical model. Voters assign scores to candidates based on both policy and non-policy considerations, then voters then decide which candidate they support based on which has a higher candidate score. The traditional assumption that most of the population will vote is replaced by a function describing the probability of voting based on candidate scores assigned by individual voters. If the voter's likelihood of voting is not certain, but rather modelled by a sigmoid curve, it has radical implications on party decisions and actions taken during an election cycle. The model also includes a significant interaction term between the candidate scores and the differential between the scores which enhances the Downsian model. The thesis is proposed in a similar manner to Downs' original presentation, including several allegorical and hypothetical examples of the model in action. The results of the model reveal that single issue voters can have a significant impact on election outcomes, and that the weight of non-policy considerations is high enough that political parties would spend large sums of money on campaigning. Future research will include creating an experiment to verify the interaction terms, as well as adjusting the model for individual costs so that more empirical analysis may be completed.

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2019-05

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Assessing the Economic Prosperity of Persons with Disabilities in American Cities

Description

We seek a comprehensive measurement for the economic prosperity of persons with disabilities. We survey the current literature and identify the major economic indicators used to describe the socioeconomic standing of persons with disabilities. We then develop a methodology for

We seek a comprehensive measurement for the economic prosperity of persons with disabilities. We survey the current literature and identify the major economic indicators used to describe the socioeconomic standing of persons with disabilities. We then develop a methodology for constructing a statistically valid composite index of these indicators, and build this index using data from the 2014 American Community Survey. Finally, we provide context for further use and development of the index and describe an example application of the index in practice.

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2017-05

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The Impact of the Consumer Price Index on the Insolvency of the Social Security Trust Fund

Description

Yearly changes in the consumer price index are used to adjust social security benefits in order to keep the purchasing power of social security beneficiaries the same. Currently, social security benefits are adjusted using a fixed-weighted price index that reflects

Yearly changes in the consumer price index are used to adjust social security benefits in order to keep the purchasing power of social security beneficiaries the same. Currently, social security benefits are adjusted using a fixed-weighted price index that reflects the purchasing patterns of workers. However, some believe that a price index that captures the spending habits of the elderly should adjust monthly social security benefits, while others argue that a chain-weighted price index is a more accurate indexation technique. This report finds that if an elderly or chain-weighted price index were implemented this year, there would not be a significant change in the projected insolvency of the social security trust fund, but there could be a substantial decrease in the social security trust fund's yearly cash-flow deficit. Therefore, changing the indexation of social security benefits should not be seen as a short-term solvency fix. Instead, adjusting monthly social security benefits should be about keeping the purchasing power of beneficiaries relatively the same.

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2017-05

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Stability and Social Welfare in International Lending Networks

Description

This paper examines the behavior of international lending networks a currency crisis, specifically focusing on connectivity as a differentiating factor between financial networks. The model consists of economies that borrow and lend capital in nominal units of the creditor's currency.

This paper examines the behavior of international lending networks a currency crisis, specifically focusing on connectivity as a differentiating factor between financial networks. The model consists of economies that borrow and lend capital in nominal units of the creditor's currency. A shock then leads to the depreciation of the currency of a single economy which causes exchange rate fluctuations throughout the financial network. This alters the nominal value of debts that economies are required to repay, potentially putting them at risk of default. The results show that the architecture of a financial network is an important factor in minimizing the number of defaults and maximizing total social welfare. An increase in connectivity among economies leads to both greater stability and greater total social welfare of a network, since diversification of liabilities decreases fluctuations in exchange rates.

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2017-05

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Health Insurance and Mortality Outcomes - Extending Observational Methodologies to the Publicly Insured

Description

Existing research into the health benefits of insurance fall into two major categories \u2014 observational and experimental. Observational studies have centered on data sets from before 2000 and focus on the mortality differences between the privately insured and the uninsured.

Existing research into the health benefits of insurance fall into two major categories \u2014 observational and experimental. Observational studies have centered on data sets from before 2000 and focus on the mortality differences between the privately insured and the uninsured. Experimental studies began with Massachusetts' 2006 health reform and continued after the passage of the Affordable Care Act. These studies measure the effects of public insurance among the coverage expansion populations. These two bodies of literature come to ambiguous and contradictory conclusions to the mortality effects and health value of insurance. This study extends the observational methodologies to the publicly insured in samples from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in both the 1988-1994 survey and the 2001-2002 survey. Using the Cox Proportional Hazard model, this study estimates the hazard ratios faced by the privately and publicly insured compared to the uninsured. This study finds the publicly insured face hazards 1.5 times those of the uninsured (p<.001), while the privately insured do not face hazards significantly different from those of the uninsured. Literature suggests that some unobserved characteristic of the publicly insured are influencing their mortality. Interacting with participants health reveals that these differences across groups shrink as health declines. Experimental literature suggests that public insurance lowers the uninsured risk from "healthcare amenable" conditions. Treatment of these conditions may explain the hazard reductions among the uninsured in non-excellent health. The high risk of the publicly insured in excellent health defies explanation.

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2018-05

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Temporal and Spatial Aggregation Effects on Environmental Economic Studies

Description

We examine the bias resulting from temporal and spatial aggregation of weather variables in environmental economics. In order to include temporally and/or spatially continuous environmental variables (such as temperature and precipitation), many studies discritize them. The finer the scale of

We examine the bias resulting from temporal and spatial aggregation of weather variables in environmental economics. In order to include temporally and/or spatially continuous environmental variables (such as temperature and precipitation), many studies discritize them. The finer the scale of discrization chosen, the more difficult it can be to obtain a complete and reliable data set. Studies performed at very fine scales often find tighter and more dramatic relationships between variables such as temperature and income per capita. We examine this question by repeating the same empirical study at various temporal and spatial scales and comparing the resulting parameter estimates.

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Date Created
2016-05

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The Future of Bitcoin

Description

Alternative currencies have a long and varied history, in which Bitcoin is the latest chapter. The pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin as an implementation of the concept of a cryptocurrency, or a decentralized currency based on the principles of cryptography.

Alternative currencies have a long and varied history, in which Bitcoin is the latest chapter. The pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin as an implementation of the concept of a cryptocurrency, or a decentralized currency based on the principles of cryptography. Since its creation in 2008, Bitcoin has had a fairly tumultuous existence that limited its adoption. Wide price fluctuations occurred as the appeal of free money by running a piece of computer software drove people to purchase expensive hardware, and high-profile scandals cast Bitcoin as an unstable currency well-suited primarily for purchasing illicit materials. Consumer confidence in the currency was extremely low, and businesses were extremely hesitant to accept a currency that could easily lose half (or more) of its value overnight. However, recent years have seen the currency begin to stabilize as businesses and mainstream investors have begun to accept and support it. Alternative cryptocurrencies, titled "altcoins," have also been created to fill market niches that Bitcoin was not addressing. Governmental intervention, a concern of many following the currency, has been surprisingly restrained and has actually contributed to its stability. The future of Bitcoin looks very bright as it carries the dream of the alternative currency forward into the 21st century.

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2016-05

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A Market For Television and Internet Content

Description

We develop a unique model for household preferences in a three good market of television content (cable), internet content (Netflix), and income spent on any other good or activity. Utility is a function of the time spent viewing television content,

We develop a unique model for household preferences in a three good market of television content (cable), internet content (Netflix), and income spent on any other good or activity. Utility is a function of the time spent viewing television content, time spent viewing internet content, and income spent otherwise. Preferences are determined by the complementarity (or substitutability) of television and internet content, the complementarity of viewing content and spending income otherwise, and individual preference for income. Consumers maximize utility subject to time of viewership and budget constraints. We analyze the comparative statics of the model by varying the complementarity between television and internet content and the complementarity between viewing content and spending income otherwise. We develop a model of firms, in which there are two firms offering one product each who compete on price. They charge a flat-fee for their product (either television or internet content) and have a fixed cost. Their revenue is determined by the number of consumers who choose to purchase their product multiplied by the price they charge. We find a collusive outcome for the firms. We analyze the Nash Equilibrium of the model. We only found symmetric Mixed Action Nash Equilibria (MANE), with the following interesting feature: Bertrand Competition causes firms to choose low prices very often, but firms price significantly higher should the price drop too low. Thus, the MANE places high probability mass on the lowest and highest prices of each firm but has little mass elsewhere.

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2016-05