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Description
This dissertation consists of three essays on modern economic growth and structural transformation, in particular touching on the reallocation of labor across industries, occupations, and employment statuses.
The first chapter investigates the quantitative importance of non-employment in the labor market outcomes for the United States. During the last 50 years, production has shifted from goods to services. In terms of occupations, the routine employment share decreased, giving way to increases in manual and abstract ones. These two patterns are related, and lower non-employment had an important role. A labor allocation model where goods, market services, and home services use different tasks as inputs is used for quantitative exercises. These show that non-employment could significantly slow down polarization and structural transformation, and induce significant displacement within the labor force.
The second chapter, coauthored with Bart Hobijn and Todd Schoellman, looks at the demographic structure of structural transformation. More than half of labor reallocation during structural transformation is due to new cohorts disproportionately entering growing industries. This suggests substantial costs to labor reallocation. A model of overlapping generations with life-cycle career choice under switching costs and structural transformation is studied. Switching costs accelerate structural transformation, since forward-looking workers enter growing industries in anticipation of future wage growth. Most of the impact of switching costs shows on relative wages.
The third chapter establishes that job polarization is a global phenomenon. The analysis of polarization is extended from a group of developed countries to a sample of 119 economies. At all levels of development, employment shares in routine occupations have decreased since the 1980s. This suggests that routine occupations are becoming increasingly obsolete throughout the world, rather than being outsourced to developing countries. A development accounting framework with technical change at the \textit{task} level is proposed. This allows to quantify and extrapolate task-specific productivity levels. Recent technological change is biased against routine occupations and in favor of manual occupations. This implies that in the following decades, world polarization will continue: employment in routine occupations will decrease, and the reallocation will happen mostly from routine to manual occupations, rather than to abstract ones.
The first chapter investigates the quantitative importance of non-employment in the labor market outcomes for the United States. During the last 50 years, production has shifted from goods to services. In terms of occupations, the routine employment share decreased, giving way to increases in manual and abstract ones. These two patterns are related, and lower non-employment had an important role. A labor allocation model where goods, market services, and home services use different tasks as inputs is used for quantitative exercises. These show that non-employment could significantly slow down polarization and structural transformation, and induce significant displacement within the labor force.
The second chapter, coauthored with Bart Hobijn and Todd Schoellman, looks at the demographic structure of structural transformation. More than half of labor reallocation during structural transformation is due to new cohorts disproportionately entering growing industries. This suggests substantial costs to labor reallocation. A model of overlapping generations with life-cycle career choice under switching costs and structural transformation is studied. Switching costs accelerate structural transformation, since forward-looking workers enter growing industries in anticipation of future wage growth. Most of the impact of switching costs shows on relative wages.
The third chapter establishes that job polarization is a global phenomenon. The analysis of polarization is extended from a group of developed countries to a sample of 119 economies. At all levels of development, employment shares in routine occupations have decreased since the 1980s. This suggests that routine occupations are becoming increasingly obsolete throughout the world, rather than being outsourced to developing countries. A development accounting framework with technical change at the \textit{task} level is proposed. This allows to quantify and extrapolate task-specific productivity levels. Recent technological change is biased against routine occupations and in favor of manual occupations. This implies that in the following decades, world polarization will continue: employment in routine occupations will decrease, and the reallocation will happen mostly from routine to manual occupations, rather than to abstract ones.
ContributorsVindas Quesada, Alberto José (Author) / Hobijn, Bart (Thesis advisor) / Bick, Alexander (Committee member) / Ventura, Gustavo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
The January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake, which hit Port-au-Prince in the late afternoon, was the cause of over 220,000 deaths and $8 billion in damages \u2014 roughly 120% of national GDP at the time. A Mw 7.5 earthquake struck rural Guatemala in the early morning in 1976 and caused 23,000-25,000 deaths, three times as many injuries, and roughly $1.1 billion in damages, which accounted for approximately 30% of Guatemala's GDP. The earthquake which hit just outside of Christchurch, New Zealand early in the morning on September 4, 2010 had a magnitude of 7.1 and caused just two injuries, no deaths, and roughly 7.2 billion USD in damages (5% of GDP). These three earthquakes, all with magnitudes over 7 on the Richter scale, caused extremely varied amounts of economic damage for these three countries. This thesis aims to identify a possible explanation as to why this was the case and suggest ways in which to improve disaster risk management going forward.
ContributorsHeuermann, Jamie Lynne (Author) / Schoellman, Todd (Thesis director) / Mendez, Jose (Committee member) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The current model of revenue generation for some free to play video games is preventing the companies controlling them from growing, but with a few changes in approach these issues could be alleviated. A new style of video games, called a MOBA (Massive Online Battle Arena) has emerged in the past few years bringing with it a new style of generating wealth. Contrary to past gaming models, where users must either purchase the game outright, view advertisements, or purchase items to gain a competitive advantage, MOBAs require no payment of any kind. These are free to play computer games that provides users with all the tools necessary to compete with anyone free of charge; no advantages can be purchased in this game. This leaves the only way for users to provide money to the company through optional purchases of purely aesthetic items, only to be purchased if the buyer wishes to see their character in a different set of attire. The genre’s best in show—called League of Legends, or LOL—has spearheaded this method of revenue-generation. Fortunately for LOL, its level of popularity has reached levels never seen in video games: the world championships had more viewers than game 7 of the NBA Finals (Dorsey). The player base alone is enough to keep the company afloat currently, but the fact that they only convert 3.75% of the players into revenue is alarming. Each player brings the company an average of $1.32, or 30% of what some other free to play games earn per user (Comparing MMO). It is this low per player income that has caused Riot Games, the developer of LOL, to state that their e-sports division is not currently profitable. To resolve this issue, LOL must take on a more aggressive marketing plan. Advertisements for the NBA Finals cost $460,000 for 30 seconds, and LOL should aim for ads in this range (Lombardo). With an average of 3 million people logged on at any time, 90% of the players being male and 85% being between the ages of 16 and 30, advertising via this game would appeal to many companies, making a deal easy to strike (LOL infographic 2012). The idea also appeals to players: 81% of players surveyed said that an advertisement on the client that allows for the option to place an order would improve or not impact their experience. Moving forward with this, the gaming client would be updated to contain both an option to order pizza and an advertisement for Mountain Dew. This type of advertising was determined based on community responses through a sequence of survey questions. These small adjustments to the game would allow LOL to generate enough income for Riot Games to expand into other areas of the e-sports industry.
ContributorsSeip, Patrick (Co-author) / Zhao, BoNing (Co-author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director) / Kashiwagi, Jacob (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
On September 11, 1973, Augusto Pinochet became the leader of Chile after a violent coup d’état, which left the economy in shambles. The previous president and ruling party, Salvador Allende and the Popular Unity coalition respectively, were moving the country towards socialism and in doing so increased the government presence in the economy, nationalized copper and other industries, and redistributed agricultural land. Soon after nationalizing the copper industry, prices fell and the large expenditures being made by the government lead to a recession characterized by shrinking GDP, failing nationalized businesses, US economic sanctions, high inflation, and unfavorable exchange rates. Pinochet turned to the Chicago Boys, Chilean economists educated at the University of Chicago’s School of Economics by Milton Friedman, to formulate an economic plan that would reduce inflation as well as limiting government involvement in the economy. This paper will examine the neoliberal free market principals instituted by the Chicago Boys, the immediate and delayed effects in the Chilean government, and how these principals have been and can be utilized to provide stabilization and growth in other Latin American economies.
ContributorsJohnsen, Kaitlin (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Hobijn, Bart (Committee member) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
DescriptionA look at current 3D printing capabilities, and exploring the potential for additive manufacturing to transform the economy in the future.
ContributorsBennewitz, Chase (Co-author) / Paul, John (Co-author) / Parker, Kerry (Co-author) / Maltz, Arnold (Thesis director) / McDowell, John (Committee member) / Fujinami, Chris (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
Yearly changes in the consumer price index are used to adjust social security benefits in order to keep the purchasing power of social security beneficiaries the same. Currently, social security benefits are adjusted using a fixed-weighted price index that reflects the purchasing patterns of workers. However, some believe that a price index that captures the spending habits of the elderly should adjust monthly social security benefits, while others argue that a chain-weighted price index is a more accurate indexation technique. This report finds that if an elderly or chain-weighted price index were implemented this year, there would not be a significant change in the projected insolvency of the social security trust fund, but there could be a substantial decrease in the social security trust fund's yearly cash-flow deficit. Therefore, changing the indexation of social security benefits should not be seen as a short-term solvency fix. Instead, adjusting monthly social security benefits should be about keeping the purchasing power of beneficiaries relatively the same.
ContributorsScobas, Peter Jonathan (Author) / Hobijn, Bart (Thesis director) / Smith, Kerry (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
This dissertation contains a portfolio of papers in economics. The first paper, ``Vehicle Emissions Inspection Programs: Equality and Impact," presents the results of a study of the Arizona Vehicle Emissions Inspection Program. Using a unique data set, I find that the Arizona Vehicle Emissions Inspection Program is regressive in that it constrains the vehicle repair decisions of people on the low end of the income distribution more than those on the high end. I also find that the social cost of the program in Arizona is more than twice the social benefit, assuming a \$7 million value of statistical life. The second paper is ``Fiat Value in the Theory of Value." Because of advances in information processing technology, it is now technically feasible to have a currency-less monetary system. This paper explores one such system. In the model, prices are in units currency-less fiat money called fiat value, fiat value is a form of government debt, and the services of the stock of fiat value are a factor of production. In this system, the National accounts must be revised to account for money as a production factor, Friedman satiation is possible even with positive inflation, and various monetary policy regimes are explored. The third paper, ``Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Modern Paradigm of Money," uses the model developed in ``Fiat Value in the Theory of Value" to evaluate quantitative easing and interest on reserves policies as a response to liquidity shocks. I find that quantitative easing is an effective response to liquidity crises because it drives the marginal product of money to zero. When the marginal product of money is zero, the business sector does not have to pay to rent the services of money, a production factor that is free to create. I also show that a positive interest on reserve policy hampers the effectiveness of quantitative easing, and that quantitative easing does not cause a high inflation rate.
ContributorsWessel, Ryan J (Author) / Prescott, Edward C. (Thesis advisor) / Schoellman, Todd (Committee member) / Hobijn, Bart (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
This thesis looks at the theory and empirical evidence that surrounds the debate between environmentalists and economists regarding the link between trade liberalization and environmental degradation. The main points of the theory are the scale, composition, and technique effects which, when aggregated, are ambiguous as the harm or benefit of trade's effect on the environment. The empirical evidence studied ranges in time periods from the early 1990s to 2011 and mainly focuses on the existence or absence of an environmental Kuznets curve for certain pollutant. However, the data still proves to be inconclusive. The debate about the possible link between trade and the environment is as important as ever, especially in regards to carbon dioxide emissions. Going forward, it is extremely important that international cooperation regarding emissions targets and abatement goals increases. Trade will prove to be an invaluable tool in this endeavor as it provides a mechanism for the spread of green technology as well as can be used as a method of environmental policy enforcement.
ContributorsCotterell, Emily Claire (Author) / Mendez, Jose (Thesis director) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
In this paper, I discuss my findings from The Toyota Way, 2 Second Lean, and Lean Thinking, I present an analysis of my implementation of lean processes for Page Petal, and I recommend a set of lean<br/>philosophies that I found to be successful for e-commerce product-based small businesses. I also focus on how the economy plays an important role in the demand for goods, a major factor in<br/>which lean processes will ultimately be successful. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the value of mindful risk-taking in entrepreneurship and to reveal what was effective with Page Petal in hopes of giving other small businesses insight into how to be successful.
ContributorsWeidemann, Courtney Michelle (Author) / Van Orden, Joseph (Thesis director) / Reffett, Kevin (Committee member) / Department of Management and Entrepreneurship (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
Through research, interviews, and analysis, our paper provides the local community with a resource that offers a comprehensive collection of insight into the Mirabella at ASU Life Plan Community and the projected impact it will have on the City of Tempe and Arizona State University.
ContributorsStephens, Corey Christopher (Co-author) / Dicke, George (Co-author) / Anand, Rohan (Co-author) / Sadusky, Brian (Thesis director) / Schiller, Christoph (Committee member) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05