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Description
This dissertation investigates spatial and temporal changes in land cover and plant species distributions on Cyprus in the past, present and future (1973-2070). Landsat image analysis supports inference of land cover changes following the political division of the island of Cyprus in 1974. Urban growth in Nicosia, Larnaka and Limasol, as well as increased development along the southern coastline, is clearly evident between 1973 and 2011. Forests of the Troodos and Kyrenia Ranges remain relatively stable, with transitions occurring most frequently between agricultural land covers and shrub/herbaceous land covers. Vegetation models were constructed for twenty-two plant species of Cyprus using Maxent to predict potentially suitable areas of occurrence. Modern vegetation models were constructed from presence-only data collected by field surveys conducted between 2008 and 2011. These models provide a baseline for the assessment of potential species distributions under two climate change scenarios (A1b and A2) for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070. Climate change in Cyprus is likely to influence habitat availability, particularly for high elevation species as the relatively low elevation mountain ranges and small latitudinal range prevent species from shifting to areas of suitable environmental conditions. The loss of suitable habitat for some species may allow the introduction of non-native plant species or the expansion of generalists currently excluded from these areas. Results from future projections indicate the loss of suitable areas for most species by the year 2030 under both climate regimes and all four endemic species (Cedrus brevifolia, Helianthemum obtusifolium, Pterocephalus multiflorus, and Quercus alnifolia) are predicted to lose all suitable environments as soon as 2030. As striking exceptions Prunus dulcis (almond), Ficus carica (fig), Punica granatum (pomegranate) and Olea europaea (olive), which occur as both wild varieties and orchard cultigens, will expand under both scenarios. Land cover and species distribution maps are evaluated in concert to create a more detailed interpretation of the Cypriot landscape and to discuss the potential implications of climate change for land cover and plant species distributions.
ContributorsRidder, Elizabeth (Author) / Fall, Patricia L. (Thesis advisor) / Myint, Soe W (Committee member) / Hirt, Paul W (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The partitioning of available solar energy into different fluxes at the Earth's surface is important in determining different physical processes, such as turbulent transport, subsurface hydrology, land-atmospheric interactions, etc. Direct measurements of these turbulent fluxes were carried out using eddy-covariance (EC) towers. However, the distribution of EC towers is sparse due to relatively high cost and practical difficulties in logistics and deployment. As a result, data is temporally and spatially limited and is inadequate to be used for researches at large scales, such as regional and global climate modeling. Besides field measurements, an alternative way is to estimate turbulent fluxes based on the intrinsic relations between surface energy budget components, largely through thermodynamic equilibrium. These relations, referred as relative efficiency, have been included in several models to estimate the magnitude of turbulent fluxes in surface energy budgets such as latent heat and sensible heat. In this study, three theoretical models based on the lumped heat transfer model, the linear stability analysis and the maximum entropy principle respectively, were investigated. Model predictions of relative efficiencies were compared with turbulent flux data over different land covers, viz. lake, grassland and suburban surfaces. Similar results were observed over lake and suburban surface but significant deviation is found over vegetation surface. The relative efficiency of outgoing longwave radiation is found to be orders of magnitude deviated from theoretic predictions. Meanwhile, results show that energy partitioning process is influenced by the surface water availability to a great extent. The study provides insight into what property is determining energy partitioning process over different land covers and gives suggestion for future models.
ContributorsYang, Jiachuan (Author) / Wang, Zhihua (Thesis advisor) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Mays, Larry (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Urban growth, from regional sprawl to global urbanization, is the most rapid, drastic, and irreversible form of human modification to the natural environment. Extensive land cover modifications during urban growth have altered the local energy balance, causing the city warmer than its surrounding rural environment, a phenomenon known as an urban heat island (UHI). How are the seasonal and diurnal surface temperatures related to the land surface characteristics, and what land cover types and/or patterns are desirable for ameliorating climate in a fast growing desert city? This dissertation scrutinizes these questions and seeks to address them using a combination of satellite remote sensing, geographical information science, and spatial statistical modeling techniques.
This dissertation includes two main parts. The first part proposes to employ the continuous, pixel-based landscape gradient models in comparison to the discrete, patch-based mosaic models and evaluates model efficiency in two empirical contexts: urban landscape pattern mapping and land cover dynamics monitoring. The second part formalizes a novel statistical model called spatially filtered ridge regression (SFRR) that ensures accurate and stable statistical estimation despite the existence of multicollinearity and the inherent spatial effect.
Results highlight the strong potential of local indicators of spatial dependence in landscape pattern mapping across various geographical scales. This is based on evidence from a sequence of exploratory comparative analyses and a time series study of land cover dynamics over Phoenix, AZ. The newly proposed SFRR method is capable of producing reliable estimates when analyzing statistical relationships involving geographic data and highly correlated predictor variables. An empirical application of the SFRR over Phoenix suggests that urban cooling can be achieved not only by altering the land cover abundance, but also by optimizing the spatial arrangements of urban land cover features. Considering the limited water supply, rapid urban expansion, and the continuously warming climate, judicious design and planning of urban land cover features is of increasing importance for conserving resources and enhancing quality of life.
This dissertation includes two main parts. The first part proposes to employ the continuous, pixel-based landscape gradient models in comparison to the discrete, patch-based mosaic models and evaluates model efficiency in two empirical contexts: urban landscape pattern mapping and land cover dynamics monitoring. The second part formalizes a novel statistical model called spatially filtered ridge regression (SFRR) that ensures accurate and stable statistical estimation despite the existence of multicollinearity and the inherent spatial effect.
Results highlight the strong potential of local indicators of spatial dependence in landscape pattern mapping across various geographical scales. This is based on evidence from a sequence of exploratory comparative analyses and a time series study of land cover dynamics over Phoenix, AZ. The newly proposed SFRR method is capable of producing reliable estimates when analyzing statistical relationships involving geographic data and highly correlated predictor variables. An empirical application of the SFRR over Phoenix suggests that urban cooling can be achieved not only by altering the land cover abundance, but also by optimizing the spatial arrangements of urban land cover features. Considering the limited water supply, rapid urban expansion, and the continuously warming climate, judicious design and planning of urban land cover features is of increasing importance for conserving resources and enhancing quality of life.
ContributorsFan, Chao (Author) / Myint, Soe W (Thesis advisor) / Li, Wenwen (Committee member) / Rey, Sergio J (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Urbanization and woody plant encroachment, with subsequent brush management, are two significant land cover changes that are represented in the southwestern United States. Urban areas continue to grow, and rangelands are undergoing vegetation conversions, either purposely through various rangeland management techniques, or by accident, through inadvertent effects of climate and management. This thesis investigates how areas undergoing land cover conversions in a semiarid region, through urbanization or rangeland management, influences energy, water and carbon fluxes. Specifically, the following scientific questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different urban land cover types in Phoenix, AZ on energy and water fluxes?, (2) how does the land cover heterogeneity influence energy, water, and carbon fluxes in a semiarid rangeland undergoing woody plant encroachment?, and (3) what is the impact of brush management on energy, water, and carbon fluxes?
The eddy covariance technique is well established to measure energy, water, and carbon fluxes and is used to quantify and compare flux measurements over different land surfaces. Results reveal that in an urban setting, paved surfaces exhibit the largest sensible and lowest latent heat fluxes in an urban environment, while a mesic landscape exhibits the largest latent heat fluxes, due to heavy irrigation. Irrigation impacts flux sensitivity to precipitation input, where latent heat fluxes increase with precipitation in xeric and parking lot landscapes, but do not impact the mesic system. In a semiarid managed rangeland, past management strategies and disturbance histories impact vegetation distribution, particularly the distribution of mesquite trees. At the site with less mesquite coverage, evapotranspiration (ET) is greater, due to greater grass cover. Both sites are generally net sinks of CO2, which is largely dependent on moisture availability, while the site with greater mesquite coverage has more respiration and generally greater gross ecosystem production (GEP). Initial impacts of brush management reveal ET and GEP decrease, due to the absence of mesquite trees. However the impact appears to be minimal by the end of the productive season. Overall, this dissertation advances the understanding of land cover change impacts on surface energy, water, and carbon fluxes in semiarid ecosystems.
The eddy covariance technique is well established to measure energy, water, and carbon fluxes and is used to quantify and compare flux measurements over different land surfaces. Results reveal that in an urban setting, paved surfaces exhibit the largest sensible and lowest latent heat fluxes in an urban environment, while a mesic landscape exhibits the largest latent heat fluxes, due to heavy irrigation. Irrigation impacts flux sensitivity to precipitation input, where latent heat fluxes increase with precipitation in xeric and parking lot landscapes, but do not impact the mesic system. In a semiarid managed rangeland, past management strategies and disturbance histories impact vegetation distribution, particularly the distribution of mesquite trees. At the site with less mesquite coverage, evapotranspiration (ET) is greater, due to greater grass cover. Both sites are generally net sinks of CO2, which is largely dependent on moisture availability, while the site with greater mesquite coverage has more respiration and generally greater gross ecosystem production (GEP). Initial impacts of brush management reveal ET and GEP decrease, due to the absence of mesquite trees. However the impact appears to be minimal by the end of the productive season. Overall, this dissertation advances the understanding of land cover change impacts on surface energy, water, and carbon fluxes in semiarid ecosystems.
ContributorsTempleton, Nicole Pierini (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R (Thesis advisor) / Archer, Steven R (Committee member) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Scott, Russell L. (Committee member) / Wang, Zhi-Hua (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017