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- Creators: Arizona State University
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Description
There is a popular notion that creativity is highly valued in our culture. However, those "in the trenches," people in creative endeavors that actually produce the acts of creativity, say this is not so. There is a negative correlation between the value stated and the true value placed on creativity by our contemporary culture. The primary purpose of this study was to investigate that correlation as well as a possible contributing factor to this negative correlation--the fear of risk involved in enacting and accepting creativity. The methods used in this study were literature review and interview. An extensive literature review was done, as much has been written on creativity. The review was done in four parts: 1) the difficulty in defining creativity; 2) fear and the fear of creativity; 3) solutions - ways to be, express, and accept creativity; and 4) the plethora of articles written about creativity. Six one-on-one interviews were conducted with creative individuals from a variety of commercial creative endeavors. Creatives in commercial fields were chosen specifically because of their ability to influence the culture. The results of this study showed that the hypothesis, that there is a negative correlation between the value stated and the true value placed on creativity, is true. The fear of risk involved in enacting and accepting creativity as a factor in this dichotomy was also shown to be true.
ContributorsGelman, Howard P (Author) / Heywood, Wil (Thesis advisor) / Patel, Mookesh (Committee member) / Knox, Gordon (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
It is well understood that decisions made under uncertainty differ from those made without risk in important and significant ways. Yet, there is very little research into how uncertainty manifests itself in the most ubiquitous of decision-making environments: Consumers' day-to-day decisions over where to shop, and what to buy for their daily grocery needs. Facing a choice between stores that either offer relatively stable "everyday low prices" (EDLP) or variable prices that reflect aggressive promotion strategies (HILO), consumers have to choose stores under price-uncertainty. I find that consumers' attitudes toward risk are critically important in determining store-choice, and that heterogeneity in risk attitudes explains the co-existence of EDLP and HILO stores - an equilibrium that was previously explained in somewhat unsatisfying ways. After choosing a store, consumers face another source of risk. While knowing the quality or taste of established brands, consumers have very little information about new products. Consequently, consumers tend to choose smaller package sizes for new products, which limits their exposure to the risk that the product does not meet their prior expectations. While the observation that consumers purchase small amounts of new products is not new, I show how this practice is fully consistent with optimal purchase decision-making by utility-maximizing consumers. I then use this insight to explain how manufacturers of consumer packaged goods (CPGs) respond to higher production costs. Because consumers base their purchase decisions in part on package size, manufacturers can use package size as a competitive tool in order to raise margins in the face of higher production costs. While others have argued that manufacturers reduce package sizes as a means of raising unit-prices (prices per unit of volume) in a hidden way, I show that the more important effect is a competitive one: Changes in package size can soften price competition, so manufacturers need not rely on fooling consumers in order to pass-through cost increases through changes in package size. The broader implications of consumer behavior under risk are dramatic. First, risk perceptions affect consumers' store choice and product choice patterns in ways that can be exploited by both retailers and manufacturers. Second, strategic considerations prevent manufacturers from manipulating package size in ways that seem designed to trick consumers. Third, many services are also offered as packages, and also involve uncertainty, so the effects identified here are likely to be pervasive throughout the consumer economy.
ContributorsYonezawa, Koichi (Author) / Richards, Timothy J. (Thesis advisor) / Grebitus, Carola (Committee member) / Park, Sungho (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Although research has documented robust prospective relationships between externalizing symptomatology and subsequent binge drinking among adolescents, the extent to which internalizing symptoms increase risk for drinking remains controversial. In particular, the role of anxiety as a predictor of binge drinking remains unclear. Recent evidence suggests that one possible reason for these mixed findings is that separate dimensions of anxiety may differentially confer risk for alcohol use. The present study tested two dimensions of anxiety - worry and physiological anxiety -- as predictors of binge drinking in a longitudinal study of juvenile delinquents. Overall, results indicate that worry and physiological anxiety showed differential relations with drinking behavior. In general, worry was protective against alcohol use, whereas physiological anxiety conferred risk for binge drinking, but both effects were conditional on levels of offending. Implications for future research examining the role of anxiety in predicting drinking behavior among youth are discussed.
ContributorsNichter, Brandon (Author) / Chassin, Laurie (Thesis advisor) / Barrera, Manuel (Committee member) / Presson, Clark (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This study investigated the efficacy of Early Head Start home-based, center-based and mixed-approach programs on cognitive, language and behavioral outcomes at different levels of cumulative environmental risk. Early Head Start is a federal program that provides low-income families and their children from birth to age three with childcare, parenting education, healthcare and other family supports. As part of Early Head Start's initiation, a program evaluation was begun involving 3,001 children from 17 programs around the country. Half of the children were randomly assigned to the control group, who received no Early Head Start services. Data were collected through program application and enrollment forms, interviews of parents and child and family assessments. Almost all of the children's primary caretakers were mothers, ranging in age from 18 to 26. One-third were African American, one-third white, and one-fourth Hispanic. Almost half of the parents did not have a high school diploma at the time of enrollment, and most of the families received public support of some kind. For each child, a multiple environmental risk score was calculated, which was the sum of 10 possible environmental risks. Each of four outcomes was regressed onto the ten risks individually and also as a cumulative risk index along with program type and covariates. There were significant negative relations of accumulated risk to reductions in reasoning, spatial ability and vocabulary and increased behavior problems. Children with at least eight risks scored 1.48 standard deviations lower on reasoning ability and vocabulary, .48 standard deviations lower on spatial ability and .48 standard deviations higher on behavior problems. The home-based program showed significant benefit for reasoning and vocabulary. Versus the control group, home-based programs increased average reasoning scores by .24 of a standard deviation and increased vocabulary by .14 of a standard deviation. There was no significant difference in program benefits at different levels of risk. This suggests that for reasoning and vocabulary, the home-based program is promotive because the degree of benefit Early Head Start appears to provide is consistent across all levels of risk for the set of risks and outcomes examined in this study.
ContributorsBudinger, Susan (Author) / Bradley, Robert H (Thesis advisor) / Doane Sampey, Leah D (Committee member) / Valiente, Carlos (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Female infertility can present a significant challenge to quality of life. To date, few, if any investigations have explored the process by which women adapt to premature ovarian insufficiency (POI), a specific type of infertility, over time. The current investigation proposed a bi-dimensional, multi-factor, model of adjustment characterized by the identification of six latent factors representing personal attributes (resilience resources and vulnerability), coping (adaptive and maladaptive) and outcomes (distress and wellbeing). Measures were collected over the period of one year; personal attributes were assessed at Time 1, coping at Time 2 and outcomes at Time 3. It was hypothesized that coping factors would mediate associations between personal attributes and outcomes. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), simple regressions and single mediator models were utilized to test study hypotheses. Overall, with the exception of coping, the factor structure was consistent with predictions. Two empirically derived coping factors, and a single standalone strategy, avoidance, emerged. The first factor, labeled "approach coping" was comprised of strategies directly addressing the experience of infertility. The second was comprised of strategies indicative of "letting go /moving on." Only avoidance significantly mediated the association between vulnerability and distress.
ContributorsDriscoll, Mary (Author) / Davis, Mary C. (Thesis advisor) / Aiken, Leona S. (Committee member) / Luecken, Linda J. (Committee member) / Zautra, Alex J. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
School failure among children and adolescents has long been a serious issue in Myanmar. The recent statistics indicate that a large number of adolescents do not complete high school. As a consequence, they lose prosperous work opportunities and ability to earn an adequate income. These outcomes highlight a need to study the factors that hamper academic success of adolescents in Myanmar. Academic success is a complex concept and needs a multidimensional perspective to gain an accurate understanding of factors associated with it. Therefore, this study used an ecological risk/protective model and identified risk and protective factors that contribute to academic success of adolescents through five ecological systems of an adolescent: individual, family, peer, school, and community. This study was conducted at one government and monastic school in Myanmar. The data was collected from a sample of 50 high school students, parents and teachers through interviews and focus group discussions. This study reviewed and analyzed the data by using constant comparative method. A total of 27 distinctive ecological risk and protective factors that contribute to adolescents’ academic success in Myanmar emerged from the study. The findings of this study provided important recommendations to inform policy and practice interventions for adolescents to improve their academic performance. The findings also highlighted the influence of schools, families and communities on academic success of adolescents and a need of school social work services in Myanmar to address school failure of adolescents. Last but not least, this study contributed to the local literature by expanding the knowledge base on the concepts of ecological model and strengths-based perspective which are very new for educators and social workers in Myanmar.
ContributorsLynn, Zayar (Author) / Krysik, Judy Lynn (Thesis advisor) / Klimek, Barbara G (Committee member) / Morales, Joanne Elisabeth (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on modeling catastrophes. Setting reserves for catastrophe losses is difficult due to their unpredictable and often long-tailed nature. Determining loss development factors (LDFs) to estimate the ultimate loss amounts for catastrophe events is one method for setting reserves. In an attempt to aid Company XYZ set more accurate reserves, the research conducted focuses on estimating LDFs for catastrophes which have already occurred and have been settled. Furthermore, the research describes the process used to build a linear model in R to estimate LDFs for Company XYZ's closed catastrophe claims from 2001 \u2014 2016. This linear model was used to predict a catastrophe's LDFs based on the age in weeks of the catastrophe during the first year. Back testing was also performed, as was the comparison between the estimated ultimate losses and actual losses. Future research consideration was proposed.
ContributorsSwoverland, Robert Bo (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Zicarelli, John (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Economists, political philosophers, and others have often characterized social preferences regarding inequality by imagining a hypothetical choice of distributions behind "a veil of ignorance". Recent behavioral economics work has shown that subjects care about equality of outcomes, and are willing to sacrifice, in experimental contexts, some amount of personal gain in order to achieve greater equality. We review some of this literature and then conduct an experiment of our own, comparing subjects' choices in two risky situations, one being a choice for a purely individualized lottery for themselves, and the other a choice among possible distributions to members of a randomly selected group. We find that choosing in the group situation makes subjects significantly more risk averse than when choosing an individual lottery. This supports the hypothesis that an additional preference for equality exists alongside ordinary risk aversion, and that in a hypothetical "veil of ignorance" scenario, such preferences may make subjects significantly more averse to unequal distributions of rewards than can be explained by risk aversion alone.
ContributorsTheisen, Alexander Scott (Co-author) / McMullin, Caitlin (Co-author) / Li, Marilyn (Co-author) / DeSerpa, Allan (Thesis director) / Schlee, Edward (Committee member) / Baldwin, Marjorie (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
This paper examines the qualitative and quantitative effects of the 2008 financial crisis on the current landscape of the investment banking industry. We begin by reviewing what occurred during the financial crisis, including which banks took TARP money, which banks became bank holding companies, and significant mergers and acquisitions. We then examine the new regulations that were created in reaction to the crisis, including the Dodd-Frank Act. In particular, we focus on the Volcker Rule, which is a section of the act that prohibits proprietary trading and other risky activities at banks. Then we shift into a quantitative analysis of the changes that banks made from the years 2005-2016. To do this, we chose four banks to be representative of the industry: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, and Bank of America. We then analyze four metrics for each bank: revenue mix, value at risk, tangible common equity ratio, and debt to equity ratio. These provide methods for analyzing how banks have shifted their revenue centers to accommodate new regulations, as well as how these shifts have affected banks' risk levels and leverage. Our data show that all four banks that we observed shifted their revenue centers to flatter revenue areas, such as investment management, wealth management, and consumer banking operations. This was paired with fairly flat investment banking revenues across the board when controlling for overall market changes in the investment banking sector. Additionally, trading-focused banks significantly shifted their operations away from proprietary trading and higher risk activities. These changes resulted in lower value at risk measures for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley with very minor increases for J.P. Morgan and Bank of America, although these two banks had low levels of absolute value at risk when compared to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. All banks' tangible common equity ratios increased and debt to equity ratios decreased, indicating a safer investment for shareholders and lower leverage. We conclude by offering a forecast of our expectations for the future, particularly in light of a Trump presidency. We expect less regulation going forward and the potential reversal of the Volcker Rule. We believe that these changes would result in more revenue coming from trading and riskier strategies, increasing value at risk, decreasing tangible common equity ratios, and increasing debt to equity ratios. While we do expect less regulation and higher risk, we do not expect these banks to reach pre-crisis levels due to the significant amount of regulations that would be particularly difficult for the Trump administration to reverse.
ContributorsPatel, Aashay (Co-author) / Goulder, Gregory (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
Increasingly, wildfires are threatening communities, forcing evacuations, damaging property, and causing loss of life. This is in part due to a century of wildfire policy and an influx of people moving to the wildland urban interface (WUI). National programs have identified and promoted effective wildfire mitigation actions to reduce wildfire risk; yet, many homeowners do not perform these actions. Based on previous literature and using the theory of planned behavior (TPB), this study proposes an integrated wildfire mitigation behavioral model to assess and identify the factors that influence homeowners’ wildfire mitigation behaviors. Specifically, the study tests the validity of the theory of planned behavior as a foundational model in exploring wildfire mitigation behaviors, develops and empirically tests a wildfire mitigation behavioral model, and explores the role of homeowner associations (HOA) on wildfire mitigation behaviors. Structural equation modeling was used on data collected from homeowners with property in the WUI in Prescott, Arizona. Results suggest TPB provides an acceptable model in describing homeowner wildfire mitigation behavior. For HOA residents, attitudes toward wildfire mitigation behaviors play an important role in predicting intentions to perform these behaviors. Additionally, perceived constraints directly influenced actual mitigation actions. For non-HOA residents, subjective norms influenced intentions to mitigate. Implications for research and local wildfire mitigation programs and policy are discussed.
ContributorsSteffey, Eric Clifford (Author) / Budruk, Megha (Thesis advisor) / Vogt, Christine (Committee member) / Virden, Randy (Committee member) / Larson, Kelli (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016