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- All Subjects: Influenza
- Creators: Jehn, Megan
Description
Background: While research has quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic in the United States, little is known about how the virus spread locally in Arizona, an area where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
ContributorsCobos, April J (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Homelessness is a pervasive in American society. The causes of homelessness are complex, but health and homelessness are inextricably linked. Student-run free clinics care for underserved populations, including people experiencing homelessness, but they have multiple agendas—to provide care but also to give students hands-on experience. It is plausible that these two agendas may compete and give patients sub-par quality of care.
This study examines patient care in the SHOW free clinic in Phoenix, Arizona, which serves adults experiencing homelessness. This study asks two questions: First, do clinicians in Phoenix’s SHOW free clinic discuss with patients how to pay for and where to access follow-up services and medications? Second, how do the backgrounds of patients, measured by scales based on the Gelberg-Anderson behavioral model for vulnerable populations, correlate with patient outcomes, including number of unmet needs in clinic, patient satisfaction with care, and patient perceived health status? To answer these questions, structured surveys were administered to SHOW clinic patients at the end of their visits. Results were analyzed using Pearson’s correlations and odds ratios. 21 patients completed the survey over four weeks in February-March 2017. We did not identify any statistically significant correlations between predisposing factors such as severity/duration of homelessness, mental health history, ethnicity, or LGBTQ status and quality of care outcomes. Twenty nine percent of surveyed patients reported having one or more unmet needs following their SHOW clinic visit suggesting an important area for future research. The results from this study indicate that measuring unmet needs is a feasible alternative to patient satisfaction surveys for assessing quality of care in student-run free clinics for homeless populations.
This study examines patient care in the SHOW free clinic in Phoenix, Arizona, which serves adults experiencing homelessness. This study asks two questions: First, do clinicians in Phoenix’s SHOW free clinic discuss with patients how to pay for and where to access follow-up services and medications? Second, how do the backgrounds of patients, measured by scales based on the Gelberg-Anderson behavioral model for vulnerable populations, correlate with patient outcomes, including number of unmet needs in clinic, patient satisfaction with care, and patient perceived health status? To answer these questions, structured surveys were administered to SHOW clinic patients at the end of their visits. Results were analyzed using Pearson’s correlations and odds ratios. 21 patients completed the survey over four weeks in February-March 2017. We did not identify any statistically significant correlations between predisposing factors such as severity/duration of homelessness, mental health history, ethnicity, or LGBTQ status and quality of care outcomes. Twenty nine percent of surveyed patients reported having one or more unmet needs following their SHOW clinic visit suggesting an important area for future research. The results from this study indicate that measuring unmet needs is a feasible alternative to patient satisfaction surveys for assessing quality of care in student-run free clinics for homeless populations.
ContributorsWilson, Ethan Sinead (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Harrell, Susan (Committee member) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
Background: This study examines how pro-vaccine flu messages, guided by the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM), affect parents’ intentions to vaccinate their children.
Methods: Parents of children six months to five years old (N = 975) were randomly exposed to one of four high-threat/high-efficacy messages (narrative, statistical, combined, control) and completed a follow-up survey. Differences between message conditions were assessed with one-way ANOVAs, and binary logistic regressions were used to show how constructs predicted intentions.
Results: There were no significant differences in the ANOVA results at p = .05 for EPPM variables or risk EPPM variables. There was a significant difference between message conditions for perceived manipulation (p = 0.026), authority, (p = 0.024), character (p = 0.037), attention (p < .000), and emotion (p < .000). The EPPM model and perceptions of message model (positively), and the risk EPPM model and fear control model (negatively), predicted intentions to vaccinate. Significant predictor variables in each model at p < .05 were severity (aOR = 1.83), response efficacy (aOR = 4.33), risk susceptibility (aOR = 0.53), risk fear (aOR = 0.74), issue derogation (aOR = 0.63), perceived manipulation (aOR = 0.64), character (aOR = 2.00), and personal relevance (aOR = 1.88). In a multivariate model of the significant predictors, only response efficacy significantly predicted intentions to vaccinate (aOR = 3.43). Compared to the control, none of the experimental messages significantly predicted intentions to vaccinate. The narrative and combined conditions significantly predicted intentions to search online (aOR = 2.37), and the combined condition significantly predicted intentions to talk to family/friends (aOR = 2.66).
Conclusions: The EPPM may not be effective in context of a two-way threat. Additional constructs that may be useful in the EPPM model are perceptions of the message and fear control variables. One-shot flu vaccine messages will be unlikely to directly influence vaccination rates; however they may increase information-seeking behavior. The impact of seeking more information on vaccination uptake requires further research. Flu vaccine messages should be presented in combined form. Future studies should focus on strategies to increase perceptions of the effectiveness of the flu vaccine.
Methods: Parents of children six months to five years old (N = 975) were randomly exposed to one of four high-threat/high-efficacy messages (narrative, statistical, combined, control) and completed a follow-up survey. Differences between message conditions were assessed with one-way ANOVAs, and binary logistic regressions were used to show how constructs predicted intentions.
Results: There were no significant differences in the ANOVA results at p = .05 for EPPM variables or risk EPPM variables. There was a significant difference between message conditions for perceived manipulation (p = 0.026), authority, (p = 0.024), character (p = 0.037), attention (p < .000), and emotion (p < .000). The EPPM model and perceptions of message model (positively), and the risk EPPM model and fear control model (negatively), predicted intentions to vaccinate. Significant predictor variables in each model at p < .05 were severity (aOR = 1.83), response efficacy (aOR = 4.33), risk susceptibility (aOR = 0.53), risk fear (aOR = 0.74), issue derogation (aOR = 0.63), perceived manipulation (aOR = 0.64), character (aOR = 2.00), and personal relevance (aOR = 1.88). In a multivariate model of the significant predictors, only response efficacy significantly predicted intentions to vaccinate (aOR = 3.43). Compared to the control, none of the experimental messages significantly predicted intentions to vaccinate. The narrative and combined conditions significantly predicted intentions to search online (aOR = 2.37), and the combined condition significantly predicted intentions to talk to family/friends (aOR = 2.66).
Conclusions: The EPPM may not be effective in context of a two-way threat. Additional constructs that may be useful in the EPPM model are perceptions of the message and fear control variables. One-shot flu vaccine messages will be unlikely to directly influence vaccination rates; however they may increase information-seeking behavior. The impact of seeking more information on vaccination uptake requires further research. Flu vaccine messages should be presented in combined form. Future studies should focus on strategies to increase perceptions of the effectiveness of the flu vaccine.
ContributorsHall, Sarah (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis advisor) / Mongeau, Paul (Committee member) / Hruschka, Daniel (Committee member) / Margolis, Eric (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Objective: To provide insight into the World Health Organization SAGE Working Group Vaccine Hesitancy Survey by applying the tool to populations across Maricopa County, Arizona. Design: An online survey was conducted using the Qualtrics Survey Software, of individuals residing in Maricopa County, Arizona during the month of October 2019. Results: Of 209 respondents, the followed demonstrated to be the top 3 reasons for either having not received the flu shot yet or having not planned to receive the flu shot: “I’m healthy, I don’t need it”(20.1%); “Worried I might get the flu from it”(17.7%); “I don’t think it works”(17.7%) Statistical analysis demonstrated that vaccine hesitant and non-hesitant respondents are likely to respond differently to topics covering: safety of vaccines; self-perceived health status; importance of the flu shot among one’s peers; flu vaccine related knowledge Conclusions: The WHO VHS applied to the population of Maricopa County, Arizona reported little hesitancy towards the seasonal flu vaccine. Statistical analysis of Vaccine Hesitant respondents vs. Non-Hesitant respondents demonstrates that specified public health education focused on the immunological implications of vaccines may be needed for the hesitant population to gain confidence in vaccine efficacy. A more diverse respondent group that consists of residents beyond the county lines of Maricopa is needed to understand the full scope of vaccine hesitancy that exists in Arizona.
ContributorsMaroofi, Hanna (Co-author, Co-author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Muabyi, Anuj (Committee member) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution & Social Change (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05