This dissertation details the findings of a three-part study on applying complex systems modeling techniques to exemplar socio-technical infrastructure systems. In the research articles discussed hereafter, various modeling techniques are contrasted in their capacity for simulating and analyzing complex, adaptive systems. This research demonstrates the empirical value of a complex system approach as twofold: (i) the technique explains systems interactions which are often neglected or ignored and (ii) its application has the capacity for teaching systems thinking principles. These outcomes serve decision-makers by providing them with further empirical analysis and granting them a more complete understanding on which to base their decisions.
The first article examines modeling techniques, and their unique aptitudes are compared against the characteristics of complex systems to establish which methods are most qualified for complex systems analysis. Outlined in the second article is a proof of concept piece on using an interactive simulation of the Los Angeles water distribution system to teach complex systems thinking skills for the improved management of socio-technical infrastructure systems. Lastly, the third article demonstrates the empirical value of this complex systems approach for analyzing infrastructure systems through the construction of a systems dynamics model of the Arizona educational-workforce system, across years 1990 to 2040. The model explores a series of dynamic hypotheses and allows stakeholders to compare policy interventions for improving educational and economic outcome measures.
Self-governance From Above: Principles of Polycentric Governance in Large-Scale Water Infrastructure
I use the case of large-scale water infrastructure in Arizona to explore a novel approach to measurement of polycentric decision making contexts. Through semi-structured interviews with water operators in the Arizona water system, this research explores how qualitative and quantitative comparisons can be made between polycentric governance constructs as they are understood by institutional scholars, experienced by actors in polycentric systems, and represented in public policy discourses. I introduce several measures of conditions of polycentricity at a subjective level, including the extents to which actors: experience variety in the work assigned to them; define strong operational priorities; perceive their priorities to be shared by others; identify discrete, critical decisions in the course of their work responsibilities; recall information and action dependencies in their decision making processes; relate communicating their decisions to other dependent decision makers; describe constraints in their process; and evaluate their own independence to make decisions. I use configurational analysis and narrative analysis to show how decision making and governance are understood by operators within the Arizona water system. These results contribute to practical approaches for diagnosis of polycentric systems and theory-building in self governance.
Underground infrastructure is a critical part of the essential utility services provided to society and the backbone of modern civilization. However, now more than ever before, the disastrous events of a striking underground utilities cost billions of dollars each year in societal damages. Advanced technology and sophisticated visualization techniques such as augmented reality (AR) now play a significant role in mitigating such devastating consequences. Therefore, it is vitally important to coordinate resources, share information, and ensure efficient communication between construction personnel and utility owners. Besides, geographic information systems (GIS) provide a solution for interoperability in the construction industry. Applying such technologies in the field of underground construction requires accurate and up-to-date information. However, there is currently limited research that has integrated AR and GIS and evaluated the effectiveness and usability of the combination in this domain. The main objective of this research was to develop an integrated AR-GIS for mapping and capturing underground utilities using a mobile device. To achieve these objectives, a design research approach utilized to develop and evaluate a mobile extended-reality (XR-GIS) application. This research has produced an efficient solution for data collection and sharing among stakeholders in the underground construction industry. The main challenge in creating a reliable and adaptive outdoor AR system is the accurate registration of virtual objects in the real world. Due to the limited accuracy of smartphones, this study used an external Global Positioning System (GPS) devices to reduce positional error. The primary motivation behind this research is to make the construction industry more aware of the benefits of leveraging AR to prevent utility strikes and enhance public safety.
This dissertation fills the gap in the knowledge regarding applying Augmented Reality (AR) in the underground infrastructure mapping. This study’s three research objectives are:
(1) Identify the challenges and barriers facing the underground construction industry when applying AR.
(2) Develop an integrated AR-GIS for mapping and capturing underground utilities using a mobile device.
(3) Evaluate the horizontal accuracy of the captured data used by the AR phone application XR-GIS that has been developed by the author.
The hundreds of projects have been grouped into six maritime and land-based economic corridors that retrace many of the original routes of the Silk Road. Of these corridors, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has proven to be one of the most important in China’s quest for Asian economic integration. The CPEC is the BRI’s first major economic corridor and one of the largest, receiving approximately $39 billion in investments to date.
Despite the thousands of articles and research papers that have been written on the topic, there are very few resources that provide a more comprehensive view of the Belt and Road Initiative. Consistent information on BRI projects is difficult to find, as both China and its debtors have been withholding many of the details regarding construction progress and lending activity. As a result, this thesis attempts to reconcile the simultaneous surplus of research with the shortage of conclusive information by framing its analysis in the form of a question about the BRI’s likelihood of success.
This thesis explores the history of the Silk Road, the progress of the Belt and Road Initiative, and the project’s global implications. In order to determine the BRI’s likelihood of success, this thesis identifies the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as the economic corridor most likely to succeed of the six. It then analyzes the CPEC, determining that, despite the fact that it is the economic corridor most likely to succeed, it likely will not. It then builds upon this to conclude that the BRI, too, is unlikely to succeed.
In addition, this thesis critiques many of the expansionary policies, loose lending practices, and near-term decisions made by Chinese leadership by arguing that the BRI is an initiative for the benefit of China and not its debtors.
During a joint ASU-Prescott College visit to the Maasai Mara in Kenya in June-July 2018, it became obvious that many Maasai women produce beadwork sold locally to help support their families. The difficulties they face include inconsistent sales due to lack of customers, lulls in tourism, and unfair competition. During this visit, the idea of selling the crafts online via Etsy was suggested. It received overwhelming support from the community through MERC, the The Maasai Education, Research and Conservation Institute.
In the end, an increase in repurchases of company stock will also influence the rate of dividends to increase. This means, an investor should not necessarily worry about the dividends they receive, but rather to see if the company is making profit at a consistent rate and reinvesting into value-added activities. Through the major pillars of finance, technology, legal, and human resources, the budget for reinvestment can be optimized by investing into these respective categories with percentages that are mindful of the specific companies needs and functions. Any firm that chooses to ensure proven methods of growth will enact a combination of these four verticals. A larger emphasis on finance will branch out efficiency in the entire organization, as finance control everything from the toilet paper to the acquisitions the company is making. The more technology is used to reduce redundancy and inefficient or costly operations, the more capability the organization will have. IT, however, comes with its technical challenges; having a team on-hand or even outsourced, to solve the critical problems to help the business continue operation. Over-reliance into technology can be detrimental to a business as well if clear processes are not set about straight to counteract problems the business will face like IT ticketing systems or recovery and continuity support. Therefore, technology will require a larger chunk of attention as well.
The upcoming legal and HR investments a company will make will depend upon its current position and thus the restructuring will differ for every firm. Each company has its own flavour and style of work. In that regard, the required legal counsel will vary; different problems will require different solutions for risk control and management, which are often professionally advised by intelligent corporate counsel. This ability to hire efficient legal counsel would not arise in the first place if a firm were to give out dividends; the leftover profit would have gone towards the shareholders and not back into growing the equity of the business. Lastly, nothing is possible without the contribution of people, and their efforts. A quality that long-lasting, successful businesses have, is they are investing in their people and development. Paying salaries, insurances, bonuses, all requires extra capital that is needed to be set aside in order to grow human capital. Good people, better people. There are qualities for each role that need to be defined and a process for attracting talent needs to be invested in. This process can also include outsourcing to an external firm who specializes in these strategies. By retaining profits internally, the company is able to stretch its legs to have further reach upon the market they work in. Financially and statistically, dividends are likely to grow as well with the increase in equity due to the increase in security an investor feels with more cash reserve and liquidity within the company.
All in all, a company should not be pressured into giving out periodic payments in predetermined timeframes, in other words a dividend, to investors even when they are insisting. Rather, pitch and prove, a new method for reinvestment within the company that will raise the value of the company, through proven methods like the value chain model, to increase the equity in the company. By expanding the scope and capability, the company is allowing for a larger target market which will reap more benefits; none of it would be possible if it had continued to give out large percentages of capital to investors as dividends. Companies, and investors, should not be worried about dividends at all as a matter of fact; an increase in stock buyback, in other words reinvesting into the company, will increase the rate of dividends anyway, due to increased confidence and capital within the company.
