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- All Subjects: Climate Change
Description
The implications of a changing climate have a profound impact on human life, society, and policy making. The need for accurate climate prediction becomes increasingly important as we better understand these implications. Currently, the most widely used climate prediction relies on the synthesis of climate model simulations organized by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP); these simulations are ensemble-averaged to construct projections for the 21st century climate. However, a significant degree of bias and variability in the model simulations for the 20th century climate is well-known at both global and regional scales. Based on that insight, this study provides an alternative approach for constructing climate projections that incorporates knowledge of model bias. This approach is demonstrated to be a viable alternative which can be easily implemented by water resource managers for potentially more accurate projections. Tests of the new approach are provided on a global scale with an emphasis on semiarid regional studies for their particular vulnerability to water resource changes, using both the former CMIP Phase 3 (CMIP3) and current Phase 5 (CMIP5) model archives. This investigation is accompanied by a detailed analysis of the dynamical processes and water budget to understand the behaviors and sources of model biases. Sensitivity studies of selected CMIP5 models are also performed with an atmospheric component model by testing the relationship between climate change forcings and model simulated response. The information derived from each study is used to determine the progressive quality of coupled climate models in simulating the global water cycle by rigorously investigating sources of model bias related to the moisture budget. As such, the conclusions of this project are highly relevant to model development and potentially may be used to further improve climate projections.
ContributorsBaker, Noel C (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Trimble, Steve (Committee member) / Anderson, James (Committee member) / Clarke, Amanda (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Modern day gas turbine designers face the problem of hot mainstream gas ingestion into rotor-stator disk cavities. To counter this ingestion, seals are installed on the rotor and stator disk rims and purge air, bled off from the compressor, is injected into the cavities. It is desirable to reduce the supply of purge air as this decreases the net power output as well as efficiency of the gas turbine. Since the purge air influences the disk cavity flow field and effectively the amount of ingestion, the aim of this work was to study the cavity velocity field experimentally using Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). Experiments were carried out in a model single-stage axial flow turbine set-up that featured blades as well as vanes, with purge air supplied at the hub of the rotor-stator disk cavity. Along with the rotor and stator rim seals, an inner labyrinth seal was provided which split the disk cavity into a rim cavity and an inner cavity. First, static gage pressure distribution was measured to ensure that nominally steady flow conditions had been achieved. The PIV experiments were then performed to map the velocity field on the radial-tangential plane within the rim cavity at four axial locations. Instantaneous velocity maps obtained by PIV were analyzed sector-by-sector to understand the rim cavity flow field. It was observed that the tangential velocity dominated the cavity flow at low purge air flow rate, its dominance decreasing with increase in the purge air flow rate. Radially inboard of the rim cavity, negative radial velocity near the stator surface and positive radial velocity near the rotor surface indicated the presence of a recirculation region in the cavity whose radial extent increased with increase in the purge air flow rate. Qualitative flow streamline patterns are plotted within the rim cavity for different experimental conditions by combining the PIV map information with ingestion measurements within the cavity as reported in Thiagarajan (2013).
ContributorsPathak, Parag (Author) / Roy, Ramendra P (Thesis advisor) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Lee, Taewoo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Climate change has been one of the major issues of global economic and social concerns in the past decade. To quantitatively predict global climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations have organized a multi-national effort to use global atmosphere-ocean models to project anthropogenically induced climate changes in the 21st century. The computer simulations performed with those models and archived by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) form the most comprehensive quantitative basis for the prediction of global environmental changes on decadal-to-centennial time scales. While the CMIP5 archives have been widely used for policy making, the inherent biases in the models have not been systematically examined. The main objective of this study is to validate the CMIP5 simulations of the 20th century climate with observations to quantify the biases and uncertainties in state-of-the-art climate models. Specifically, this work focuses on three major features in the atmosphere: the jet streams over the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the low level jet (LLJ) stream over central North America which affects the weather in the United States, and the near-surface wind field over North America which is relevant to energy applications. The errors in the model simulations of those features are systematically quantified and the uncertainties in future predictions are assessed for stakeholders to use in climate applications. Additional atmospheric model simulations are performed to determine the sources of the errors in climate models. The results reject a popular idea that the errors in the sea surface temperature due to an inaccurate ocean circulation contributes to the errors in major atmospheric jet streams.
ContributorsKulkarni, Sujay (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Peet, Yulia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Due to decrease in fossil fuel levels, the world is shifting focus towards renewable sources of energy. With an annual average growth rate of 25%, wind is one of the foremost source of harnessing cleaner energy for production of electricity. Wind turbines have been developed to tap power from wind. As a single wind turbine is insufficient, multiple turbines are installed forming a wind farm. Generally, wind farms can have hundreds to thousands of turbines concentrated in a small region. There have been multiple studies centering the influence of weather on such wind farms, but no substantial research focused on how wind farms effect local climate. Technological advances have allowed development of commercial wind turbines with a power output greater than 7.58 MW. This has led to a reduction in required number of turbines and has optimized land usage. Hence, current research considers higher power density compared to previous works that relied on wind farm density of 2 to 4 W/m 2 . Simulations were performed using Weather Research and Forecasting software provided by NCAR. The region of simulation is Southern Oregon, with domains including both onshore and offshore wind farms. Unlike most previous works, where wind farms were considered to be on a flat ground, effects of topography have also been considered here. Study of seasonal effects over wind farms has provided better insight into changes in local wind direction. Analysis of mean velocity difference across wind farms at a height of 10m and 150m gives an understanding of wind velocity profiles. Results presented in this research tends to contradict earlier belief that velocity reduces throughout the farm. Large scale simulations have shown that sometimes, more than 50% of the farm can have an increased wind velocity of up to 1m/s
at an altitude of 10m.
at an altitude of 10m.
ContributorsKadiyala, Yogesh Rao (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Rajagopalan, Jagannathan (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
The application of novel visualization and modeling methods to the study of cardiovascular disease is vital to the development of innovative diagnostic techniques, including those that may aid in the early detection and prevention of cardiovascular disorders. This dissertation focuses on the application of particle image velocimetry (PIV) to the study of intracardiac hemodynamics. This is accomplished primarily though the use of ultrasound based PIV, which allows for in vivo visualization of intracardiac flow without the requirement for optical access, as is required with traditional camera-based PIV methods.
The fundamentals of ultrasound PIV are introduced, including experimental methods for its implementation as well as a discussion on estimating and mitigating measurement error. Ultrasound PIV is then compared to optical PIV; this is a highly developed technique with proven accuracy; through rigorous examination it has become the “gold standard” of two-dimensional flow visualization. Results show good agreement between the two methods.
Using a mechanical left heart model, a multi-plane ultrasound PIV technique is introduced and applied to quantify a complex, three-dimensional flow that is analogous to the left intraventricular flow. Changes in ventricular flow dynamics due to the rotational orientation of mechanical heart valves are studied; the results demonstrate the importance of multi-plane imaging techniques when trying to assess the strongly three-dimensional intraventricular flow.
The potential use of ultrasound PIV as an early diagnosis technique is demonstrated through the development of a novel elasticity estimation technique. A finite element analysis routine is couple with an ensemble Kalman filter to allow for the estimation of material elasticity using forcing and displacement data derived from PIV. Results demonstrate that it is possible to estimate elasticity using forcing data derived from a PIV vector field, provided vector density is sufficient.
The fundamentals of ultrasound PIV are introduced, including experimental methods for its implementation as well as a discussion on estimating and mitigating measurement error. Ultrasound PIV is then compared to optical PIV; this is a highly developed technique with proven accuracy; through rigorous examination it has become the “gold standard” of two-dimensional flow visualization. Results show good agreement between the two methods.
Using a mechanical left heart model, a multi-plane ultrasound PIV technique is introduced and applied to quantify a complex, three-dimensional flow that is analogous to the left intraventricular flow. Changes in ventricular flow dynamics due to the rotational orientation of mechanical heart valves are studied; the results demonstrate the importance of multi-plane imaging techniques when trying to assess the strongly three-dimensional intraventricular flow.
The potential use of ultrasound PIV as an early diagnosis technique is demonstrated through the development of a novel elasticity estimation technique. A finite element analysis routine is couple with an ensemble Kalman filter to allow for the estimation of material elasticity using forcing and displacement data derived from PIV. Results demonstrate that it is possible to estimate elasticity using forcing data derived from a PIV vector field, provided vector density is sufficient.
ContributorsWesterdale, John Curtis (Author) / Adrian, Ronald (Thesis advisor) / Belohlavek, Marek (Committee member) / Squires, Kyle (Committee member) / Trimble, Steve (Committee member) / Frakes, David (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015