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Species distribution modeling is used to study changes in biodiversity and species range shifts, two currently well-known manifestations of climate change. The focus of this study is to explore how distributions of suitable habitat might shift under climate change for shrub communities within the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area

Species distribution modeling is used to study changes in biodiversity and species range shifts, two currently well-known manifestations of climate change. The focus of this study is to explore how distributions of suitable habitat might shift under climate change for shrub communities within the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area (SMMNRA), through a comparison of community level to individual species level distribution modeling. Species level modeling is more commonly utilized, in part because community level modeling requires detailed community composition data that are not always available. However, community level modeling may better detect patterns in biodiversity. To examine the projected impact on suitable habitat in the study area, I used the MaxEnt modeling algorithm to create and evaluate species distribution models with presence only data for two future climate models at community and individual species levels. I contrasted the outcomes as a method to describe uncertainty in projected models. To derive a range of sensitivity outcomes I extracted probability frequency distributions for suitable habitat from raster grids for communities modeled directly as species groups and contrasted those with communities assembled from intersected individual species models. The intersected species models were more sensitive to climate change relative to the grouped community models. Suitable habitat in SMMNRA's bounds was projected to decline from about 30-90% for the intersected models and about 20-80% for the grouped models from its current state. Models generally captured floristic distinction between community types as drought tolerance. Overall the impact on drought tolerant communities, growing in hotter, drier habitat such as Coastal Sage Scrub, was predicted to be less than on communities growing in cooler, moister more interior habitat, such as some chaparral types. Of the two future climate change models, the wetter model projected less impact for most communities. These results help define risk exposure for communities and species in this conservation area and could be used by managers to focus vegetation monitoring tasks to detect early response to climate change. Increasingly hot and dry conditions could motivate opportunistic restoration projects for Coastal Sage Scrub, a threatened vegetation type in Southern California.
ContributorsJames, Jennifer (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Rey, Sergio (Committee member) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description

Humans have dramatically increased phosphorus (P) availability in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. As P is often a limiting nutrient of primary production, changes in its availability can have dramatic effects on ecosystem processes. I examined the effects of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) deposition, which can lower P concentrations via coprecipitation of

Humans have dramatically increased phosphorus (P) availability in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. As P is often a limiting nutrient of primary production, changes in its availability can have dramatic effects on ecosystem processes. I examined the effects of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) deposition, which can lower P concentrations via coprecipitation of phosphate, on P availability in two systems: streams in the Huachuca Mountains, Arizona, and a stream, Río Mesquites, in Cuatro Ciénegas, México. Calcium carbonate forms as travertine in the former and within the microbialites of the latter. Despite these differences, CaCO3 deposition led to lowered P availability in both systems. By analyzing a three-year dataset of water chemistry from the Huachuca Mountain streams, I determined that P concentrations were negatively related to CaCO3 deposition rates. I also discovered that CaCO3 was positively correlated with nitrogen concentrations, suggesting that the stoichiometric effect of CaCO3 deposition on nutrient availability is due not only to coprecipitation of phosphate, but also to P-related constraints on biotic nitrogen uptake. Building from these observations, bioassays of nutrient limitation of periphyton growth suggest that P limitation is more prevalent in streams with active CaCO3 deposition than those without. Furthermore, when I experimentally reduced rates of CaCO3 deposition within one of the streams by partial light-exclusion, areal P uptake lengths decreased, periphyton P content and growth increased, and periphyton nutrient limitation by P decreased. In Río Mesquites, CaCO3 deposition was also associated with P limitation of microbial growth. There, I investigated the consequences of reductions in CaCO3 deposition with several methods. Calcium removal led to increased concentrations of P in the microbial biomass while light reductions decreased microbial biomass and chemical inhibition had no effect. These results suggest that CaCO3 deposition in microbialites does limit biological uptake of P, that photoautotrophs play an important role in nutrient acquisition, and, combined with other experimental observations, that sulfate reduction may support CaCO3 deposition in the microbialite communities of Río Mesquites. Overall, my results suggest that the effects of CaCO3 deposition on P availability are general and this process should be considered when managing nutrient flows across aquatic ecosystems.

ContributorsCorman, Jessica R. (Author) / Elser, James J (Thesis advisor) / Anbar, Ariel D (Committee member) / Childers, Daniel L. (Committee member) / Grimm, Nancy (Committee member) / Souza, Valeria (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
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Description
Climate and land use change are projected to threaten biodiversity over the coming century. However, the combined effects of these threats on biodiversity and the capacity of current conservation networks to protect species' habitat are not well understood. The goals of this study were to evaluate the effect of climate

Climate and land use change are projected to threaten biodiversity over the coming century. However, the combined effects of these threats on biodiversity and the capacity of current conservation networks to protect species' habitat are not well understood. The goals of this study were to evaluate the effect of climate change and urban development on vegetation distribution in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem; to identify the primary source of uncertainty in suitable habitat predictions; and to evaluate how well conservation areas protect future habitat in the Southwest ecoregion of the California Floristic Province. I used a consensus-based modeling approach combining three different species distribution models to predict current and future suitable habitat for 19 plant species representing different plant functional types (PFT) defined by fire-response (obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs), and life forms (herbs, subshurbs). I also examined the response of species grouped by range sizes (large, small). I used two climate models, two emission scenarios, two thresholds, and high-resolution (90m resolution) environmental data to create a range of potential scenarios. I evaluated the effectiveness of an existing conservation network to protect suitable habitat for rare species in light of climate and land use change. The results indicate that the area of suitable habitat for each species varied depending on the climate model, emission scenario, and threshold combination. The suitable habitat for up to four species could disappear from the ecoregion, while suitable habitat for up to 15 other species could decrease under climate change conditions. The centroid of the species' suitable environmental conditions could shift up to 440 km. Large net gains in suitable habitat were predicted for a few species. The suitable habitat area for herbs has a small response to climate change, while obligate seeders could be the most affected PFT. The results indicate that the other two PFTs gain a considerable amount of suitable habitat area. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat area inside designated conservation areas while gaining suitable habitat area outside. Climate change is predicted to be more important than urban development as a driver of habitat loss for vegetation in this region in the coming century. These results indicate that regional analyses of this type are useful and necessary to understand the dynamics of drivers of change at the regional scale and to inform decision making at this scale.
ContributorsBeltrán Villarreal, Bray de Jesús (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Fenichel, Eli P (Committee member) / Kinzig, Ann P (Committee member) / Collins, James P. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
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Description

An understanding of the formation of spatial heterogeneity is important because spatial heterogeneity leads to functional consequences at the ecosystem scale; however, such an understanding is still limited. Particularly, research simultaneously considering both external variables and internal feedbacks (self-organization) is rare, partly because these two drivers are addressed under different

An understanding of the formation of spatial heterogeneity is important because spatial heterogeneity leads to functional consequences at the ecosystem scale; however, such an understanding is still limited. Particularly, research simultaneously considering both external variables and internal feedbacks (self-organization) is rare, partly because these two drivers are addressed under different methodological frameworks. In this dissertation, I show the prevalence of internal feedbacks and their interaction with heterogeneity in the preexisting template to form spatial pattern. I use a variety of techniques to account for both the top-down template effect and bottom-up self-organization. Spatial patterns of nutrients in stream surface water are influenced by the self-organized patch configuration originating from the internal feedbacks between nutrient concentration, biological patchiness, and the geomorphic template. Clumps of in-stream macrophyte are shaped by the spatial gradient of water permanence and local self-organization. Additionally, significant biological interactions among plant species also influence macrophyte distribution. The relative contributions of these drivers change in time, responding to the larger external environments or internal processes of ecosystem development. Hydrologic regime alters the effect of geomorphic template and self-organization on in-stream macrophyte distribution. The relative importance of niche vs. neutral processes in shaping biodiversity pattern is a function of hydrology: neutral processes are more important in either very high or very low discharge periods. For the spatial pattern of nutrients, as the ecosystem moves toward late succession and nitrogen becomes more limiting, the effect of self-organization intensifies. Changes in relative importance of different drivers directly affect ecosystem macroscopic properties, such as ecosystem resilience. Stronger internal feedbacks in average to wetter years are shown to increase ecosystem resistance to elevated external stress, and make the backward shifts (vegetation loss) much more gradual. But it causes increases in ecosystem hysteresis effect. Finally, I address the question whether functional consequences of spatial heterogeneity feed back to influence the processes from which spatial heterogeneity emerged through a conceptual review. Such feedbacks are not likely. Self-organized spatial patterning is a result of regular biological processes of organisms. Individual organisms do not benefit from such order. It is order for free, and for nothing.

ContributorsDong, Xiaolin (Author) / Grimm, Nancy (Thesis advisor) / Muneepeerakul, Rachata (Thesis advisor) / Franklin, Janet (Committee member) / Heffernan, James B (Committee member) / Sabo, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015