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- All Subjects: economic development
- Creators: Hobijn, Bart
Description
This dissertation consists of three essays on modern economic growth and structural transformation, in particular touching on the reallocation of labor across industries, occupations, and employment statuses.
The first chapter investigates the quantitative importance of non-employment in the labor market outcomes for the United States. During the last 50 years, production has shifted from goods to services. In terms of occupations, the routine employment share decreased, giving way to increases in manual and abstract ones. These two patterns are related, and lower non-employment had an important role. A labor allocation model where goods, market services, and home services use different tasks as inputs is used for quantitative exercises. These show that non-employment could significantly slow down polarization and structural transformation, and induce significant displacement within the labor force.
The second chapter, coauthored with Bart Hobijn and Todd Schoellman, looks at the demographic structure of structural transformation. More than half of labor reallocation during structural transformation is due to new cohorts disproportionately entering growing industries. This suggests substantial costs to labor reallocation. A model of overlapping generations with life-cycle career choice under switching costs and structural transformation is studied. Switching costs accelerate structural transformation, since forward-looking workers enter growing industries in anticipation of future wage growth. Most of the impact of switching costs shows on relative wages.
The third chapter establishes that job polarization is a global phenomenon. The analysis of polarization is extended from a group of developed countries to a sample of 119 economies. At all levels of development, employment shares in routine occupations have decreased since the 1980s. This suggests that routine occupations are becoming increasingly obsolete throughout the world, rather than being outsourced to developing countries. A development accounting framework with technical change at the \textit{task} level is proposed. This allows to quantify and extrapolate task-specific productivity levels. Recent technological change is biased against routine occupations and in favor of manual occupations. This implies that in the following decades, world polarization will continue: employment in routine occupations will decrease, and the reallocation will happen mostly from routine to manual occupations, rather than to abstract ones.
The first chapter investigates the quantitative importance of non-employment in the labor market outcomes for the United States. During the last 50 years, production has shifted from goods to services. In terms of occupations, the routine employment share decreased, giving way to increases in manual and abstract ones. These two patterns are related, and lower non-employment had an important role. A labor allocation model where goods, market services, and home services use different tasks as inputs is used for quantitative exercises. These show that non-employment could significantly slow down polarization and structural transformation, and induce significant displacement within the labor force.
The second chapter, coauthored with Bart Hobijn and Todd Schoellman, looks at the demographic structure of structural transformation. More than half of labor reallocation during structural transformation is due to new cohorts disproportionately entering growing industries. This suggests substantial costs to labor reallocation. A model of overlapping generations with life-cycle career choice under switching costs and structural transformation is studied. Switching costs accelerate structural transformation, since forward-looking workers enter growing industries in anticipation of future wage growth. Most of the impact of switching costs shows on relative wages.
The third chapter establishes that job polarization is a global phenomenon. The analysis of polarization is extended from a group of developed countries to a sample of 119 economies. At all levels of development, employment shares in routine occupations have decreased since the 1980s. This suggests that routine occupations are becoming increasingly obsolete throughout the world, rather than being outsourced to developing countries. A development accounting framework with technical change at the \textit{task} level is proposed. This allows to quantify and extrapolate task-specific productivity levels. Recent technological change is biased against routine occupations and in favor of manual occupations. This implies that in the following decades, world polarization will continue: employment in routine occupations will decrease, and the reallocation will happen mostly from routine to manual occupations, rather than to abstract ones.
ContributorsVindas Quesada, Alberto José (Author) / Hobijn, Bart (Thesis advisor) / Bick, Alexander (Committee member) / Ventura, Gustavo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
These essays are my attempt to answer a big picture question in economics "why some countries are richer than others?". In the first chapter, I document that for a group of 38 countries ranging from low to high income, managers in richer countries are more skilled, and the relative income of managers to non-managers along with skill premium is lower in richer countries. I use a model of investment in skills and occupational choice in which countries differ in productivity level and size-dependent distortions. I find that exogenous productivity differences alone can produce the abovefacts qualitatively, but size-dependent distortions are needed to account for these facts quantitatively.
Chapter two accounts for the sources of world productivity growth, using data for more than 36 industries and 40 economies. Productivity growth in advanced economies slowed but emerging markets grew more quickly, which kept global productivity growth relatively constant until 2010. World productivity growth is highly volatile from year to year, which primarily reflects shifts in the reallocation of labor. Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity account for about a third of the shifts. Though markups are large and rise over time, they only modestly affect measured industry-level productivity growth.
In chapter three, I document that the mean and dispersion of pre-tax labor earnings grow faster over the life-cycle in the U.S. than in some European countries and individuals with at least a college degree are key for these facts. I use a life-cycle model of human capital accumulation and elastic labor supply which features non-linear taxation and a college choice and investments during college. The model economy is consistent with earnings distribution among college and non-college individuals in the U.S. Non-linear taxation suppresses pre-tax earnings, reduces college attendance
and investments during college. More generous subsidies for college exacerbate labor earning inequality. Differences in taxation and college subsidies account for 94% of the differences in mean earnings, and 80% of the differences in inequality over the life-cycle across the U.S. and European countries.
ContributorsEsfahani, Mehrdad (Author) / Ventura, Gustavo (Thesis advisor) / Hobijn, Bart (Thesis advisor) / Ferraro, Domenico (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021