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- All Subjects: public health
Description
Random Forests is a statistical learning method which has been proposed for propensity score estimation models that involve complex interactions, nonlinear relationships, or both of the covariates. In this dissertation I conducted a simulation study to examine the effects of three Random Forests model specifications in propensity score analysis. The results suggested that, depending on the nature of data, optimal specification of (1) decision rules to select the covariate and its split value in a Classification Tree, (2) the number of covariates randomly sampled for selection, and (3) methods of estimating Random Forests propensity scores could potentially produce an unbiased average treatment effect estimate after propensity scores weighting by the odds adjustment. Compared to the logistic regression estimation model using the true propensity score model, Random Forests had an additional advantage in producing unbiased estimated standard error and correct statistical inference of the average treatment effect. The relationship between the balance on the covariates' means and the bias of average treatment effect estimate was examined both within and between conditions of the simulation. Within conditions, across repeated samples there was no noticeable correlation between the covariates' mean differences and the magnitude of bias of average treatment effect estimate for the covariates that were imbalanced before adjustment. Between conditions, small mean differences of covariates after propensity score adjustment were not sensitive enough to identify the optimal Random Forests model specification for propensity score analysis.
ContributorsCham, Hei Ning (Author) / Tein, Jenn-Yun (Thesis advisor) / Enders, Stephen G (Thesis advisor) / Enders, Craig K. (Committee member) / Mackinnon, David P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
With the rapid development of mobile sensing technologies like GPS, RFID, sensors in smartphones, etc., capturing position data in the form of trajectories has become easy. Moving object trajectory analysis is a growing area of interest these days owing to its applications in various domains such as marketing, security, traffic monitoring and management, etc. To better understand movement behaviors from the raw mobility data, this doctoral work provides analytic models for analyzing trajectory data. As a first contribution, a model is developed to detect changes in trajectories with time. If the taxis moving in a city are viewed as sensors that provide real time information of the traffic in the city, a change in these trajectories with time can reveal that the road network has changed. To detect changes, trajectories are modeled with a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). A modified training algorithm, for parameter estimation in HMM, called m-BaumWelch, is used to develop likelihood estimates under assumed changes and used to detect changes in trajectory data with time. Data from vehicles are used to test the method for change detection. Secondly, sequential pattern mining is used to develop a model to detect changes in frequent patterns occurring in trajectory data. The aim is to answer two questions: Are the frequent patterns still frequent in the new data? If they are frequent, has the time interval distribution in the pattern changed? Two different approaches are considered for change detection, frequency-based approach and distribution-based approach. The methods are illustrated with vehicle trajectory data. Finally, a model is developed for clustering and outlier detection in semantic trajectories. A challenge with clustering semantic trajectories is that both numeric and categorical attributes are present. Another problem to be addressed while clustering is that trajectories can be of different lengths and also have missing values. A tree-based ensemble is used to address these problems. The approach is extended to outlier detection in semantic trajectories.
ContributorsKondaveeti, Anirudh (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Maciejewski, Ross (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Public health surveillance is a special case of the general problem where counts (or rates) of events are monitored for changes. Modern data complements event counts with many additional measurements (such as geographic, demographic, and others) that comprise high-dimensional covariates. This leads to an important challenge to detect a change that only occurs within a region, initially unspecified, defined by these covariates. Current methods are typically limited to spatial and/or temporal covariate information and often fail to use all the information available in modern data that can be paramount in unveiling these subtle changes. Additional complexities associated with modern health data that are often not accounted for by traditional methods include: covariates of mixed type, missing values, and high-order interactions among covariates. This work proposes a transform of public health surveillance to supervised learning, so that an appropriate learner can inherently address all the complexities described previously. At the same time, quantitative measures from the learner can be used to define signal criteria to detect changes in rates of events. A Feature Selection (FS) method is used to identify covariates that contribute to a model and to generate a signal. A measure of statistical significance is included to control false alarms. An alternative Percentile method identifies the specific cases that lead to changes using class probability estimates from tree-based ensembles. This second method is intended to be less computationally intensive and significantly simpler to implement. Finally, a third method labeled Rule-Based Feature Value Selection (RBFVS) is proposed for identifying the specific regions in high-dimensional space where the changes are occurring. Results on simulated examples are used to compare the FS method and the Percentile method. Note this work emphasizes the application of the proposed methods on public health surveillance. Nonetheless, these methods can easily be extended to a variety of applications where counts (or rates) of events are monitored for changes. Such problems commonly occur in domains such as manufacturing, economics, environmental systems, engineering, as well as in public health.
ContributorsDavila, Saylisse (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Young, Dennis (Committee member) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2010
Description
Accounting for over a third of all emerging and re-emerging infections, viruses represent a major public health threat, which researchers and epidemiologists across the world have been attempting to contain for decades. Recently, genomics-based surveillance of viruses through methods such as virus phylogeography has grown into a popular tool for infectious disease monitoring. When conducting such surveillance studies, researchers need to manually retrieve geographic metadata denoting the location of infected host (LOIH) of viruses from public sequence databases such as GenBank and any publication related to their study. The large volume of semi-structured and unstructured information that must be reviewed for this task, along with the ambiguity of geographic locations, make it especially challenging. Prior work has demonstrated that the majority of GenBank records lack sufficient geographic granularity concerning the LOIH of viruses. As a result, reviewing full-text publications is often necessary for conducting in-depth analysis of virus migration, which can be a very time-consuming process. Moreover, integrating geographic metadata pertaining to the LOIH of viruses from different sources, including different fields in GenBank records as well as full-text publications, and normalizing the integrated metadata to unique identifiers for subsequent analysis, are also challenging tasks, often requiring expert domain knowledge. Therefore, automated information extraction (IE) methods could help significantly accelerate this process, positively impacting public health research. However, very few research studies have attempted the use of IE methods in this domain.
This work explores the use of novel knowledge-driven geographic IE heuristics for extracting, integrating, and normalizing the LOIH of viruses based on information available in GenBank and related publications; when evaluated on manually annotated test sets, the methods were found to have a high accuracy and shown to be adequate for addressing this challenging problem. It also presents GeoBoost, a pioneering software system for georeferencing GenBank records, as well as a large-scale database containing over two million virus GenBank records georeferenced using the algorithms introduced here. The methods, database and software developed here could help support diverse public health domains focusing on sequence-informed virus surveillance, thereby enhancing existing platforms for controlling and containing disease outbreaks.
This work explores the use of novel knowledge-driven geographic IE heuristics for extracting, integrating, and normalizing the LOIH of viruses based on information available in GenBank and related publications; when evaluated on manually annotated test sets, the methods were found to have a high accuracy and shown to be adequate for addressing this challenging problem. It also presents GeoBoost, a pioneering software system for georeferencing GenBank records, as well as a large-scale database containing over two million virus GenBank records georeferenced using the algorithms introduced here. The methods, database and software developed here could help support diverse public health domains focusing on sequence-informed virus surveillance, thereby enhancing existing platforms for controlling and containing disease outbreaks.
ContributorsTahsin, Tasnia (Author) / Gonzalez, Graciela (Thesis advisor) / Scotch, Matthew (Thesis advisor) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019