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- All Subjects: public health
Description
This thesis develops a low-investment marketing strategy that allows low-to-mid level farmers extend their commercialization reach by strategically sending containers of fresh produce items to secondary markets that present temporary arbitrage opportunities. The methodology aims at identifying time windows of opportunity in which the price differential between two markets create an arbitrage opportunity for a transaction; a transaction involves buying a fresh produce item at a base market, and then shipping and selling it at secondary market price. A decision-making tool is developed that gauges the individual arbitrage opportunities and determines the specific price differential (or threshold level) that is most beneficial to the farmer under particular market conditions. For this purpose, two approaches are developed; a pragmatic approach that uses historic price information of the products in order to find the optimal price differential that maximizes earnings, and a theoretical one, which optimizes an expected profit model of the shipments to identify this optimal threshold. This thesis also develops risk management strategies that further reduce profit variability during a particular two-market transaction. In this case, financial engineering concepts are used to determine a shipment configuration strategy that minimizes the overall variability of the profits. For this, a Markowitz model is developed to determine the weight assignation of each component for a particular shipment. Based on the results of the analysis, it is deemed possible to formulate a shipment policy that not only increases the farmer's commercialization reach, but also produces profitable operations. In general, the observed rates of return under a pragmatic and theoretical approach hovered between 0.072 and 0.616 within important two-market structures. Secondly, it is demonstrated that the level of return and risk can be manipulated by varying the strictness of the shipping policy to meet the overall objectives of the decision-maker. Finally, it was found that one can minimize the risk of a particular two-market transaction by strategically grouping the product shipments.
ContributorsFlores, Hector M (Author) / Villalobos, Rene (Thesis advisor) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Maltz, Arnold (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
One necessary condition for the two-pass risk premium estimator to be consistent and asymptotically normal is that the rank of the beta matrix in a proposed linear asset pricing model is full column. I first investigate the asymptotic properties of the risk premium estimators and the related t-test and Wald test statistics when the full rank condition fails. I show that the beta risk of useless factors or multiple proxy factors for a true factor are priced more often than they should be at the nominal size in the asset pricing models omitting some true factors. While under the null hypothesis that the risk premiums of the true factors are equal to zero, the beta risk of the true factors are priced less often than the nominal size. The simulation results are consistent with the theoretical findings. Hence, the factor selection in a proposed factor model should not be made solely based on their estimated risk premiums. In response to this problem, I propose an alternative estimation of the underlying factor structure. Specifically, I propose to use the linear combination of factors weighted by the eigenvectors of the inner product of estimated beta matrix. I further propose a new method to estimate the rank of the beta matrix in a factor model. For this method, the idiosyncratic components of asset returns are allowed to be correlated both over different cross-sectional units and over different time periods. The estimator I propose is easy to use because it is computed with the eigenvalues of the inner product of an estimated beta matrix. Simulation results show that the proposed method works well even in small samples. The analysis of US individual stock returns suggests that there are six common risk factors in US individual stock returns among the thirteen factor candidates used. The analysis of portfolio returns reveals that the estimated number of common factors changes depending on how the portfolios are constructed. The number of risk sources found from the analysis of portfolio returns is generally smaller than the number found in individual stock returns.
ContributorsWang, Na (Author) / Ahn, Seung C. (Thesis advisor) / Kallberg, Jarl G. (Committee member) / Liu, Crocker H. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Public health surveillance is a special case of the general problem where counts (or rates) of events are monitored for changes. Modern data complements event counts with many additional measurements (such as geographic, demographic, and others) that comprise high-dimensional covariates. This leads to an important challenge to detect a change that only occurs within a region, initially unspecified, defined by these covariates. Current methods are typically limited to spatial and/or temporal covariate information and often fail to use all the information available in modern data that can be paramount in unveiling these subtle changes. Additional complexities associated with modern health data that are often not accounted for by traditional methods include: covariates of mixed type, missing values, and high-order interactions among covariates. This work proposes a transform of public health surveillance to supervised learning, so that an appropriate learner can inherently address all the complexities described previously. At the same time, quantitative measures from the learner can be used to define signal criteria to detect changes in rates of events. A Feature Selection (FS) method is used to identify covariates that contribute to a model and to generate a signal. A measure of statistical significance is included to control false alarms. An alternative Percentile method identifies the specific cases that lead to changes using class probability estimates from tree-based ensembles. This second method is intended to be less computationally intensive and significantly simpler to implement. Finally, a third method labeled Rule-Based Feature Value Selection (RBFVS) is proposed for identifying the specific regions in high-dimensional space where the changes are occurring. Results on simulated examples are used to compare the FS method and the Percentile method. Note this work emphasizes the application of the proposed methods on public health surveillance. Nonetheless, these methods can easily be extended to a variety of applications where counts (or rates) of events are monitored for changes. Such problems commonly occur in domains such as manufacturing, economics, environmental systems, engineering, as well as in public health.
ContributorsDavila, Saylisse (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Young, Dennis (Committee member) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2010
Description
Accounting for over a third of all emerging and re-emerging infections, viruses represent a major public health threat, which researchers and epidemiologists across the world have been attempting to contain for decades. Recently, genomics-based surveillance of viruses through methods such as virus phylogeography has grown into a popular tool for infectious disease monitoring. When conducting such surveillance studies, researchers need to manually retrieve geographic metadata denoting the location of infected host (LOIH) of viruses from public sequence databases such as GenBank and any publication related to their study. The large volume of semi-structured and unstructured information that must be reviewed for this task, along with the ambiguity of geographic locations, make it especially challenging. Prior work has demonstrated that the majority of GenBank records lack sufficient geographic granularity concerning the LOIH of viruses. As a result, reviewing full-text publications is often necessary for conducting in-depth analysis of virus migration, which can be a very time-consuming process. Moreover, integrating geographic metadata pertaining to the LOIH of viruses from different sources, including different fields in GenBank records as well as full-text publications, and normalizing the integrated metadata to unique identifiers for subsequent analysis, are also challenging tasks, often requiring expert domain knowledge. Therefore, automated information extraction (IE) methods could help significantly accelerate this process, positively impacting public health research. However, very few research studies have attempted the use of IE methods in this domain.
This work explores the use of novel knowledge-driven geographic IE heuristics for extracting, integrating, and normalizing the LOIH of viruses based on information available in GenBank and related publications; when evaluated on manually annotated test sets, the methods were found to have a high accuracy and shown to be adequate for addressing this challenging problem. It also presents GeoBoost, a pioneering software system for georeferencing GenBank records, as well as a large-scale database containing over two million virus GenBank records georeferenced using the algorithms introduced here. The methods, database and software developed here could help support diverse public health domains focusing on sequence-informed virus surveillance, thereby enhancing existing platforms for controlling and containing disease outbreaks.
This work explores the use of novel knowledge-driven geographic IE heuristics for extracting, integrating, and normalizing the LOIH of viruses based on information available in GenBank and related publications; when evaluated on manually annotated test sets, the methods were found to have a high accuracy and shown to be adequate for addressing this challenging problem. It also presents GeoBoost, a pioneering software system for georeferencing GenBank records, as well as a large-scale database containing over two million virus GenBank records georeferenced using the algorithms introduced here. The methods, database and software developed here could help support diverse public health domains focusing on sequence-informed virus surveillance, thereby enhancing existing platforms for controlling and containing disease outbreaks.
ContributorsTahsin, Tasnia (Author) / Gonzalez, Graciela (Thesis advisor) / Scotch, Matthew (Thesis advisor) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019