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Study of an epidemic multiple behavior diffusion model in a resource constrained social network

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In contemporary society, sustainability and public well-being have been pressing challenges. Some of the important questions are:how can sustainable practices, such as reducing carbon emission, be encouraged? , How can a healthy lifestyle be maintained?Even though individuals are interested, they

In contemporary society, sustainability and public well-being have been pressing challenges. Some of the important questions are:how can sustainable practices, such as reducing carbon emission, be encouraged? , How can a healthy lifestyle be maintained?Even though individuals are interested, they are unable to adopt these behaviors due to resource constraints. Developing a framework to enable cooperative behavior adoption and to sustain it for a long period of time is a major challenge. As a part of developing this framework, I am focusing on methods to understand behavior diffusion over time. Facilitating behavior diffusion with resource constraints in a large population is qualitatively different from promoting cooperation in small groups. Previous work in social sciences has derived conditions for sustainable cooperative behavior in small homogeneous groups. However, how groups of individuals having resource constraint co-operate over extended periods of time is not well understood, and is the focus of my thesis. I develop models to analyze behavior diffusion over time through the lens of epidemic models with the condition that individuals have resource constraint. I introduce an epidemic model SVRS ( Susceptible-Volatile-Recovered-Susceptible) to accommodate multiple behavior adoption. I investigate the longitudinal effects of behavior diffusion by varying different properties of an individual such as resources,threshold and cost of behavior adoption. I also consider how behavior adoption of an individual varies with her knowledge of global adoption. I evaluate my models on several synthetic topologies like complete regular graph, preferential attachment and small-world and make some interesting observations. Periodic injection of early adopters can help in boosting the spread of behaviors and sustain it for a longer period of time. Also, behavior propagation for the classical epidemic model SIRS (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) does not continue for an infinite period of time as per conventional wisdom. One interesting future direction is to investigate how behavior adoption is affected when number of individuals in a network changes. The affects on behavior adoption when availability of behavior changes with time can also be examined.

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Created

Date Created
2013

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Controversy analysis: clustering and ranking polarized networks with visualizations

Description

US Senate is the venue of political debates where the federal bills are formed and voted. Senators show their support/opposition along the bills with their votes. This information makes it possible to extract the polarity of the senators. Similarly, blogosphere

US Senate is the venue of political debates where the federal bills are formed and voted. Senators show their support/opposition along the bills with their votes. This information makes it possible to extract the polarity of the senators. Similarly, blogosphere plays an increasingly important role as a forum for public debate. Authors display sentiment toward issues, organizations or people using a natural language.

In this research, given a mixed set of senators/blogs debating on a set of political issues from opposing camps, I use signed bipartite graphs for modeling debates, and I propose an algorithm for partitioning both the opinion holders (senators or blogs) and the issues (bills or topics) comprising the debate into binary opposing camps. Simultaneously, my algorithm scales the entities on a univariate scale. Using this scale, a researcher can identify moderate and extreme senators/blogs within each camp, and polarizing versus unifying issues. Through performance evaluations I show that my proposed algorithm provides an effective solution to the problem, and performs much better than existing baseline algorithms adapted to solve this new problem. In my experiments, I used both real data from political blogosphere and US Congress records, as well as synthetic data which were obtained by varying polarization and degree distribution of the vertices of the graph to show the robustness of my algorithm.

I also applied my algorithm on all the terms of the US Senate to the date for longitudinal analysis and developed a web based interactive user interface www.PartisanScale.com to visualize the analysis.

US politics is most often polarized with respect to the left/right alignment of the entities. However, certain issues do not reflect the polarization due to political parties, but observe a split correlating to the demographics of the senators, or simply receive consensus. I propose a hierarchical clustering algorithm that identifies groups of bills that share the same polarization characteristics. I developed a web based interactive user interface www.ControversyAnalysis.com to visualize the clusters while providing a synopsis through distribution charts, word clouds, and heat maps.

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Created

Date Created
2015

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The interpersonal determinants of green purchasing: an assessment of the empirical record

Description

This study investigates how well prominent behavioral theories from social psychology explain green purchasing behavior (GPB). I assess three prominent theories in terms of their suitability for GPB research, their attractiveness to GPB empiricists, and the strength of their empirical

This study investigates how well prominent behavioral theories from social psychology explain green purchasing behavior (GPB). I assess three prominent theories in terms of their suitability for GPB research, their attractiveness to GPB empiricists, and the strength of their empirical evidence when applied to GPB. First, a qualitative assessment of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), Norm Activation Theory (NAT), and Value-Belief-Norm Theory (VBN) is conducted to evaluate a) how well the phenomenon and concepts in each theory match the characteristics of pro-environmental behavior and b) how well the assumptions made in each theory match common assumptions made in purchasing theory. Second, a quantitative assessment of these three theories is conducted in which r2 values and methodological parameters (e.g., sample size) are collected from a sample of 21 empirical studies on GPB to evaluate the accuracy and generalize-ability of empirical evidence. In the qualitative assessment, the results show each theory has its advantages and disadvantages. The results also provide a theoretically-grounded roadmap for modifying each theory to be more suitable for GPB research. In the quantitative assessment, the TPB outperforms the other two theories in every aspect taken into consideration. It proves to 1) create the most accurate models 2) be supported by the most generalize-able empirical evidence and 3) be the most attractive theory to empiricists. Although the TPB establishes itself as the best foundational theory for an empiricist to start from, it's clear that a more comprehensive model is needed to achieve consistent results and improve our understanding of GPB. NAT and the Theory of Interpersonal Behavior (TIB) offer pathways to extend the TPB. The TIB seems particularly apt for this endeavor, while VBN does not appear to have much to offer. Overall, the TPB has already proven to hold a relatively high predictive value. But with the state of ecosystem services continuing to decline on a global scale, it's important for models of GPB to become more accurate and reliable. Better models have the capacity to help marketing professionals, product developers, and policy makers develop strategies for encouraging consumers to buy green products.

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Agent

Created

Date Created
2012

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Directional prediction of stock prices using breaking news on Twitter

Description

Stock market news and investing tips are popular topics in Twitter. In this dissertation, first I utilize a 5-year financial news corpus comprising over 50,000 articles collected from the NASDAQ website matching the 30 stock symbols in Dow Jones Index

Stock market news and investing tips are popular topics in Twitter. In this dissertation, first I utilize a 5-year financial news corpus comprising over 50,000 articles collected from the NASDAQ website matching the 30 stock symbols in Dow Jones Index (DJI) to train a directional stock price prediction system based on news content. Next, I proceed to show that information in articles indicated by breaking Tweet volumes leads to a statistically significant boost in the hourly directional prediction accuracies for the DJI stock prices mentioned in these articles. Secondly, I show that using document-level sentiment extraction does not yield a statistically significant boost in the directional predictive accuracies in the presence of other 1-gram keyword features. Thirdly I test the performance of the system on several time-frames and identify the 4 hour time-frame for both the price charts and for Tweet breakout detection as the best time-frame combination. Finally, I develop a set of price momentum based trade exit rules to cut losing trades early and to allow the winning trades run longer. I show that the Tweet volume breakout based trading system with the price momentum based exit rules not only improves the winning accuracy and the return on investment, but it also lowers the maximum drawdown and achieves the highest overall return over maximum drawdown.

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Agent

Created

Date Created
2016

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An empirical evaluation of social influence metrics

Description

Predicting when an individual will adopt a new behavior is an important problem in application domains such as marketing and public health. This thesis examines the performance of a wide variety of social network based measurements proposed in the

Predicting when an individual will adopt a new behavior is an important problem in application domains such as marketing and public health. This thesis examines the performance of a wide variety of social network based measurements proposed in the literature - which have not been previously compared directly. This research studies the probability of an individual becoming influenced based on measurements derived from neighborhood (i.e. number of influencers, personal network exposure), structural diversity, locality, temporal measures, cascade measures, and metadata. It also examines the ability to predict influence based on choice of the classifier and how the ratio of positive to negative samples in both training and testing affect prediction results - further enabling practical use of these concepts for social influence applications.

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Agent

Created

Date Created
2016

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Efficient Node Proximity and Node Significance Computations in Graphs

Description

Node proximity measures are commonly used for quantifying how nearby or otherwise related to two or more nodes in a graph are. Node significance measures are mainly used to find how much nodes are important in a graph. The measures

Node proximity measures are commonly used for quantifying how nearby or otherwise related to two or more nodes in a graph are. Node significance measures are mainly used to find how much nodes are important in a graph. The measures of node proximity/significance have been highly effective in many predictions and applications. Despite their effectiveness, however, there are various shortcomings. One such shortcoming is a scalability problem due to their high computation costs on large size graphs and another problem on the measures is low accuracy when the significance of node and its degree in the graph are not related. The other problem is that their effectiveness is less when information for a graph is uncertain. For an uncertain graph, they require exponential computation costs to calculate ranking scores with considering all possible worlds.

In this thesis, I first introduce Locality-sensitive, Re-use promoting, approximate Personalized PageRank (LR-PPR) which is an approximate personalized PageRank calculating node rankings for the locality information for seeds without calculating the entire graph and reusing the precomputed locality information for different locality combinations. For the identification of locality information, I present Impact Neighborhood Indexing (INI) to find impact neighborhoods with nodes' fingerprints propagation on the network. For the accuracy challenge, I introduce Degree Decoupled PageRank (D2PR) technique to improve the effectiveness of PageRank based knowledge discovery, especially considering the significance of neighbors and degree of a given node. To tackle the uncertain challenge, I introduce Uncertain Personalized PageRank (UPPR) to approximately compute personalized PageRank values on uncertainties of edge existence and Interval Personalized PageRank with Integration (IPPR-I) and Interval Personalized PageRank with Mean (IPPR-M) to compute ranking scores for the case when uncertainty exists on edge weights as interval values.

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Agent

Created

Date Created
2017