Matching Items (6)
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- All Subjects: Food security
- Creators: Economics Program in CLAS
- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
- Status: Published
Description
Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on modeling catastrophes. Setting reserves for catastrophe losses is difficult due to their unpredictable and often long-tailed nature. Determining loss development factors (LDFs) to estimate the ultimate loss amounts for catastrophe events is one method for setting reserves. In an attempt to aid Company XYZ set more accurate reserves, the research conducted focuses on estimating LDFs for catastrophes which have already occurred and have been settled. Furthermore, the research describes the process used to build a linear model in R to estimate LDFs for Company XYZ's closed catastrophe claims from 2001 \u2014 2016. This linear model was used to predict a catastrophe's LDFs based on the age in weeks of the catastrophe during the first year. Back testing was also performed, as was the comparison between the estimated ultimate losses and actual losses. Future research consideration was proposed.
ContributorsSwoverland, Robert Bo (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Zicarelli, John (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
There is growing public concern about the implications of climate change for natural processes, such as the melting of ice at the poles, but less clear are the implications for food production. Famine and conflict have a long and complicated history, made increasingly complicated by the intricate global food system. In this paper, I explore the effect of increasingly severe El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles on conflict in an effort to determine how abnormal climate patterns affect food security and, indirectly, conflict. I use a non-linear probit model to analyze the relationship between several binary conflict variables and food supply.
ContributorsWoner, Hannah Marie (Author) / Schoellman, Todd (Thesis director) / Ripley, Charles (Committee member) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
Description
Anthropogenic factors contributing to more frequent and extreme weather-related events are displacing vulnerable populations and increasing the global number of food-insecure climate refugees. As food sovereignty is essential to combating climate change and ensuring sustainable futures – according to the Declaration of the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda – it is important to examine accepted practices in the food industry that may threaten the sovereignty of vulnerable groups. The aim of this thesis is to explore two climate fiction novels – Octavia Butler’s Parable of the Sower and Paolo Bacigalupi’s The Windup Girl – and how they demonstrate the connection between problematic practices in the food industry and lost food sovereignty. I also examine the novels through the lens of international documents such as the 2030 Agenda. Each novel, I argue, contributes to a growing awareness about the importance of protecting first rights to indigenous and local foods and land, or food sovereignty. The environmental humanities, and climate fiction specifically, are also contributing to a better understanding of the detrimental effects that lost sovereignty has on a people’s culture and the future sustainability of the planet. Climate fiction, as these novels illustrate, can provide case studies for understanding the inextricable link between humans and nature and allow people to imagine a better future. Placed within larger contexts that illuminate the current need for global campaigns for food sovereignty and United Nations agendas such as the 2030 Agenda, literature which demonstrates the human relationship to food can be used to enrich and strengthen application of the Agenda’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals, or SDGs. Through imagery of seeds and regeneration, Butler and Bacigalupi illuminate the critical role of seed-carriers, or bearers of food knowledge, in intergenerational food education and sustainability. Their novels demonstrate links between environmental injustices and food insecurities – violence and displacement of climate refugees in Parable of the Sower, and biopiracy and food totalitarianism in The Windup Girl – that help readers better understand the potential power of the SDGs for planning food futures.
ContributorsBoth, Natalie (Author) / Adamson, Joni (Thesis advisor) / Brown, Lois (Committee member) / Sadowski-Smith, Claudia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
AARP estimates that 90% of seniors wish to remain in their homes during retirement. Seniors need assistance as they age, historically they have received assistance from either family members, nursing homes, or Continuing Care Retirement Communities. For seniors not wanting any of these options, there has been very few alternatives. Now, the emergence of the continuing care at home program is providing hope for a different method of elder care moving forward. CCaH programs offer services such as: skilled nursing care, care coordination, emergency response systems, aid with personal and health care, and transportation. Such services allow seniors to continue to live in their own home with assistance as their health deteriorates over time. Currently, only 30 CCaH programs exist. With the growth of the elderly population in the coming years, this model seems poised for growth.
ContributorsSturm, Brendan (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Hassett, Matthew (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This thesis conducted an evaluation of the performance and return on investment of a 2 x 6m, simple design greenhouse, as a climate control technology. Specifically, differences in internal microclimate conditions between a greenhouse treatment plot, and sun and shaded control plots were assessed and related to observed differences in crop yields across these plots. Growing conditions and productivity of two crops, tomato and swiss chard, which were grown over summer and winter growing seasons, respectively, were compared. It was found that the greenhouse was associated with improved growth conditions (as measured by the R-Index) for both crops but resulted in higher productivity only for tomatoes. Return on investment and food security impacts from the scaling of greenhouse agriculture were also explored.
ContributorsKline, Jarod Neale (Author) / Aggarwal, Rimjhim (Thesis director) / Agusdinata, Datu Buyung (Committee member) / Vanos, Jennifer K. (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
A factor accounting for the COVID-19 pandemic was added to a generalized linear model to more accurately predict unpaid claims. COVID-19 has affected not just healthcare, but all sectors of the economy. Because of this, whether or not an automobile insurance claim is filed during the pandemic needs to be taken into account while estimating unpaid claims. Reserve-estimating functions such as glmReserve from the “ChainLadder” package in the statistical software R were experimented with to produce their own results. Because of their insufficiency, a manual approach to building the model turned out to be the most proficient method. Utilizing the GLM function, a model was built that emulated linear regression with a factor for COVID-19. The effects of such a model are analyzed based on effectiveness and interpretablility. A model such as this would prove useful for future calculations, especially as society is now returning to a “normal” state.
ContributorsKossler, Patrick (Author) / Zicarelli, John (Thesis director) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2022-05