Climatic changes have the potential to impact electricity generation in the U.S. Southwest and methods are needed for estimating how cities will be impacted. This study builds an electricity vulnerability risk index for two Southwest cities (Phoenix and Los Angeles) based on climate-related changes in electricity generation capacity. Planning reserve margins (PRM) are used to estimate the potential for blackouts and brownouts under future climate scenarios. Reductions in PRM occur in both cities in 2016 with the most significant reductions occurring in regions relying more heavily on hydropower.

Already the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States, extreme heat events (EHEs) are expected to occur with greater frequency, duration and intensity over the next century. However, not all populations are affected equally. Risk factors for heat mortality—including age, race, income level, and infrastructure characteristics—often vary by geospatial location. While traditional epidemiological studies sometimes account for social risk factors, they rarely account for intra-urban variability in meteorological characteristics, or for the interaction between social and meteorological risks.

This study aims to develop estimates of EHEs at an intra-urban scale for two major metropolitan areas in the Southwest: Maricopa County (Arizona) and Los Angeles County (California). EHEs are identified at a 1/8-degree (12 km) spatial resolution using an algorithm that detects prolonged periods of abnormally high temperatures. Downscaled temperature projections from three general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed under three relative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Over the next century, EHEs are found to increase by 340-1800% in Maricopa County, and by 150-840% in Los Angeles County. Frequency of future EHEs is primarily driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, with the greatest number of EHEs occurring under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Intra-urban variation in EHEs is also found to be significant. Within Maricopa County, “high risk” regions exhibit 4.5 times the number of EHE days compared to “low risk” regions; within Los Angeles County, this ratio is 15 to 1.

The project website can be accessed here. 

The electric transportation (ET) and electric vehicle (EV) landscape is currently inequitable and inaccessible for many living in the Phoenix area. This is especially true for people without single-occupancy vehicles (SOVs), who are reliant on public transit, or do not live in the Metropolitan center. Transit is intricately related to the environment and, due to societal and political structures, most of these environmental injustices are concentrated in low-income and minority communities. The lack of political representation within these communities has led to increased exposure to a variety of issues. Equitable transportation has also suffered due to a significant gap in addressing the needs of these underserved communities (Bolin, et al., 2005). The concentration of inequities and environmental injustices is a direct result of the lack of representation. Therefore, equitable and inclusive collaboration on solutions is required in order to maintain fairness and access, (Clement, 2020) considering the legacy of institutional harm within historically marginalized communities. The TE Activator was created by Salt River Project (SRP) and Anthesis Group, a sustainability consulting agency. The Activator is a group of Phoenix-area organizations interested in shaping the ET landscape to positively influence the well-being of Arizonans. With this in mind, they have asked our team to focus on making the transition to electric transportation equitable and inclusive. Our report details the current state of electric transportation nationally and locally, analyzes equitable EV/ET programs and utility plans across the country, and reviews the City of Tempe’s electric transportation related efforts. For this, we conducted listening sessions with a national expert, the City of Tempe, Tempe Community Action Agency, and CHISPA, creating a Community Listening Pilot Project based on the preliminary listening sessions. Through our research, listening, and discussions we compiled tiered recommendations for the TE Activator that suggest systemic policy changes based on community priorities. Accompanying the report is an Equity Roadmap, Community Listening Script, and one-page Debrief.

The electric transportation (ET) and electric vehicle (EV) landscape is currently inequitable and inaccessible for many living in the Phoenix area. This is especially true for people without single-occupancy vehicles (SOVs), who are reliant on public transit, or do not live in the Metropolitan center. Transit is intricately related to the environment and, due to societal and political structures, most of these environmental injustices are concentrated in low-income and minority communities. The lack of political representation within these communities has led to increased exposure to a variety of issues. Equitable transportation has also suffered due to a significant gap in addressing the needs of these underserved communities (Bolin, et al., 2005). The concentration of inequities and environmental injustices is a direct result of the lack of representation. Therefore, equitable and inclusive collaboration on solutions is required in order to maintain fairness and access, (Clement, 2020) considering the legacy of institutional harm within historically marginalized communities. The TE Activator was created by Salt River Project (SRP) and Anthesis Group, a sustainability consulting agency. The Activator is a group of Phoenix-area organizations interested in shaping the ET landscape to positively influence the well-being of Arizonans. With this in mind, they have asked our team to focus on making the transition to electric transportation equitable and inclusive. Our report details the current state of electric transportation nationally and locally, analyzes equitable EV/ET programs and utility plans across the country, and reviews the City of Tempe’s electric transportation related efforts. For this, we conducted listening sessions with a national expert, the City of Tempe, Tempe Community Action Agency, and CHISPA, creating a Community Listening Pilot Project based on the preliminary listening sessions. Through our research, listening, and discussions we compiled tiered recommendations for the TE Activator that suggest systemic policy changes based on community priorities. Accompanying the report is an Equity Roadmap, Community Listening Script, and one-page Debrief.

The electric transportation (ET) and electric vehicle (EV) landscape is currently inequitable and inaccessible for many living in the Phoenix area. This is especially true for people without single-occupancy vehicles (SOVs), who are reliant on public transit, or do not live in the Metropolitan center. Transit is intricately related to the environment and, due to societal and political structures, most of these environmental injustices are concentrated in low-income and minority communities. The lack of political representation within these communities has led to increased exposure to a variety of issues. Equitable transportation has also suffered due to a significant gap in addressing the needs of these underserved communities (Bolin, et al., 2005). The concentration of inequities and environmental injustices is a direct result of the lack of representation. Therefore, equitable and inclusive collaboration on solutions is required in order to maintain fairness and access, (Clement, 2020) considering the legacy of institutional harm within historically marginalized communities. The TE Activator was created by Salt River Project (SRP) and Anthesis Group, a sustainability consulting agency. The Activator is a group of Phoenix-area organizations interested in shaping the ET landscape to positively influence the well-being of Arizonans. With this in mind, they have asked our team to focus on making the transition to electric transportation equitable and inclusive. Our report details the current state of electric transportation nationally and locally, analyzes equitable EV/ET programs and utility plans across the country, and reviews the City of Tempe’s electric transportation related efforts. For this, we conducted listening sessions with a national expert, the City of Tempe, Tempe Community Action Agency, and CHISPA, creating a Community Listening Pilot Project based on the preliminary listening sessions. Through our research, listening, and discussions we compiled tiered recommendations for the TE Activator that suggest systemic policy changes based on community priorities. Accompanying the report is an Equity Roadmap, Community Listening Script, and one-page Debrief.