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Probabilistic Voting: An Addition to theDowns Two Party Voting Model

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This paper proposes that voter decision making is determined by more than just the policy positions adopted by the candidates in the election as proposed by Antony Downs (1957). Using a vector valued voting model proposed by William Foster (2014),

This paper proposes that voter decision making is determined by more than just the policy positions adopted by the candidates in the election as proposed by Antony Downs (1957). Using a vector valued voting model proposed by William Foster (2014), voter behavior can be described by a mathematical model. Voters assign scores to candidates based on both policy and non-policy considerations, then voters then decide which candidate they support based on which has a higher candidate score. The traditional assumption that most of the population will vote is replaced by a function describing the probability of voting based on candidate scores assigned by individual voters. If the voter's likelihood of voting is not certain, but rather modelled by a sigmoid curve, it has radical implications on party decisions and actions taken during an election cycle. The model also includes a significant interaction term between the candidate scores and the differential between the scores which enhances the Downsian model. The thesis is proposed in a similar manner to Downs' original presentation, including several allegorical and hypothetical examples of the model in action. The results of the model reveal that single issue voters can have a significant impact on election outcomes, and that the weight of non-policy considerations is high enough that political parties would spend large sums of money on campaigning. Future research will include creating an experiment to verify the interaction terms, as well as adjusting the model for individual costs so that more empirical analysis may be completed.

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2019-05

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Utilizing Machine Learning Methods to Model Cryptocurrency

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Cryptocurrencies have become one of the most fascinating forms of currency and economics due to their fluctuating values and lack of centralization. This project attempts to use machine learning methods to effectively model in-sample data for Bitcoin and Ethereum using

Cryptocurrencies have become one of the most fascinating forms of currency and economics due to their fluctuating values and lack of centralization. This project attempts to use machine learning methods to effectively model in-sample data for Bitcoin and Ethereum using rule induction methods. The dataset is cleaned by removing entries with missing data. The new column is created to measure price difference to create a more accurate analysis on the change in price. Eight relevant variables are selected using cross validation: the total number of bitcoins, the total size of the blockchains, the hash rate, mining difficulty, revenue from mining, transaction fees, the cost of transactions and the estimated transaction volume. The in-sample data is modeled using a simple tree fit, first with one variable and then with eight. Using all eight variables, the in-sample model and data have a correlation of 0.6822657. The in-sample model is improved by first applying bootstrap aggregation (also known as bagging) to fit 400 decision trees to the in-sample data using one variable. Then the random forests technique is applied to the data using all eight variables. This results in a correlation between the model and data of 9.9443413. The random forests technique is then applied to an Ethereum dataset, resulting in a correlation of 9.6904798. Finally, an out-of-sample model is created for Bitcoin and Ethereum using random forests, with a benchmark correlation of 0.03 for financial data. The correlation between the training model and the testing data for Bitcoin was 0.06957639, while for Ethereum the correlation was -0.171125. In conclusion, it is confirmed that cryptocurrencies can have accurate in-sample models by applying the random forests method to a dataset. However, out-of-sample modeling is more difficult, but in some cases better than typical forms of financial data. It should also be noted that cryptocurrency data has similar properties to other related financial datasets, realizing future potential for system modeling for cryptocurrency within the financial world.

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2018-05

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Effect of Drought Policies on Los Angeles Water Demand

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From 2007 to 2017, the state of California experienced two major droughts that required significant governmental action to decrease urban water demand. The purpose of this project is to isolate and explore the effects of these policy changes on water

From 2007 to 2017, the state of California experienced two major droughts that required significant governmental action to decrease urban water demand. The purpose of this project is to isolate and explore the effects of these policy changes on water use during and after these droughts, and to see how these policies interact with hydroclimatic variability. As explanatory variables in multiple linear regression (MLR) models, water use policies were found to be significant at both the zip code and city levels. Policies that specifically target behavioral changes were significant mathematical drivers of water use in city-level models. Policy data was aggregated into a timeline and coded based on categories including user type, whether the policy was voluntary or mandatory, the targeted water use type, and whether the change in question concerns active or passive conservation. The analyzed policies include but are not limited to state drought declarations, regulatory municipal ordinances, and incentive programs for household appliances. Spatial averages of available hydroclimatic data have been computed and validated using inverse distance weighting methods. The data was aggregated at the zip code level to be comparable to the available water use data for use in MLR models. Factors already known to affect water use, such as temperature, precipitation, income, and water stress, were brought into the MLR models as explanatory variables. After controlling for these factors, the timeline policies were brought into the model as coded variables to test their effect on water demand during the years 2000-2017. Clearly identifying which policy traits are effective will inform future policymaking in cities aiming to conserve water. The findings suggest that drought-related policies impact per capita urban water use. The results of the city level MLR models indicate that implementation of mandatory policies that target water use behaviors effectively reduce water use. Temperature, income, unemployment, and the WaSSI were also observed to be mathematical drivers of water use. Interaction effects between policies and the WaSSI were statistically significant at both model scales.

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2018-12

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A Model for the Division of Labor Through Network Interactions

Description

We model communication among social insects as an interacting particle system in which individuals perform one of two tasks and neighboring sites anti-mimic one another. Parameters of our model are a probability of defection 2 (0; 1) and relative cost

We model communication among social insects as an interacting particle system in which individuals perform one of two tasks and neighboring sites anti-mimic one another. Parameters of our model are a probability of defection 2 (0; 1) and relative cost ci > 0 to the individual performing task i. We examine this process on complete graphs, bipartite graphs, and the integers, answering questions about the relationship between communication, defection rates and the division of labor. Assuming the division of labor is ideal when exactly half of the colony is performing each task, we nd that on some bipartite graphs and the integers it can eventually be made arbitrarily close to optimal if defection rates are sufficiently small. On complete graphs the fraction of individuals performing each task is also closest to one half when there is no defection, but is bounded by a constant dependent on the relative costs of each task.

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Date Created
2015-05

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The Invention of the Oboe and its Spread through Europe

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The purpose of this thesis is to examine the events surrounding the creation of the oboe and its rapid spread throughout Europe during the mid to late seventeenth century. The first section describes similar instruments that existed for thousands of

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the events surrounding the creation of the oboe and its rapid spread throughout Europe during the mid to late seventeenth century. The first section describes similar instruments that existed for thousands of years before the invention of the oboe. The following sections examine reasons and methods for the oboe's invention, as well as possible causes of its migration from its starting place in France to other European countries, as well as many other places around the world. I conclude that the oboe was invented to suit the needs of composers in the court of Louis XIV, and that it was brought to other countries by French performers who left France for many reasons, including to escape from the authority of composer Jean-Baptiste Lully and in some cases to promote French culture in other countries.

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Date Created
2015-05

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The Nature of Cinema: Feminism, Film, and the Nature/Culture Dualism

Description

In this paper, I analyze representations of nature in popular film, using the feminist / deconstructionist concept of a dualism to structure my critique. Using Val Plumwood’s analysis of the logical structure of dualism and the 5 ‘features of a

In this paper, I analyze representations of nature in popular film, using the feminist / deconstructionist concept of a dualism to structure my critique. Using Val Plumwood’s analysis of the logical structure of dualism and the 5 ‘features of a dualism’ that she identifies, I critique 5 popular movies – Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, Brave, Grizzly Man, and Planet Earth – by locating within each of them one of the 5 features and explaining how the movie functions to reinforce the Nature/Culture dualism . By showing how the Nature/Culture dualism shapes and is shaped by popular cinema, I show how “Nature” is a social construct, created as part of this very dualism, and reified through popular culture. I conclude with the introduction of a number of ‘subversive’ pieces of visual art that undermine and actively deconstruct the Nature/Culture dualism and show to the viewer a more honest presentation of the non-human world.

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Date Created
2015-05

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Generating Electricity from Kinetic Energy in Gym Equipment

Description

As society's energy crisis continues to become more imminent many industries and niches are seeking a new, sustainable and renewable source of electricity production. Similar to solar, wind and tidal energy, kinetic energy has the potential to generate electricity as

As society's energy crisis continues to become more imminent many industries and niches are seeking a new, sustainable and renewable source of electricity production. Similar to solar, wind and tidal energy, kinetic energy has the potential to generate electricity as an extremely renewable source of energy generation. While stationary bicycles can generate small amounts of electricity, the idea behind this project was to expand energy generation into the more common weight lifting side of exercising. The method for solving this problem was to find the average amount of power generated per user on a Smith machine and determine how much power was available from an accompanying energy generator. The generator consists of three phases: a copper coil and magnet generator, a full wave bridge rectifying circuit and a rheostat. These three phases working together formed a fully functioning controllable generator. The resulting issue with the kinetic energy generator was that the system was too inefficient to serve as a viable system for electricity generation. The electrical production of the generator only saved about 2 cents per year based on current Arizona electricity rates. In the end it was determined that the project was not a sustainable energy generation system and did not warrant further experimentation.

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Date Created
2014-05

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Galam's Voting Systems and Public Debate Models Revisited

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Serge Galams voting systems and public debate models are used to model voting behaviors of two competing opinions in democratic societies. Galam assumes that individuals in the population are independently in favor of one opinion with a fixed probability p,

Serge Galams voting systems and public debate models are used to model voting behaviors of two competing opinions in democratic societies. Galam assumes that individuals in the population are independently in favor of one opinion with a fixed probability p, making the initial number of that type of opinion a binomial random variable. This analysis revisits Galams models from the point of view of the hypergeometric random variable by assuming the initial number of individuals in favor of an opinion is a fixed deterministic number. This assumption is more realistic, especially when analyzing small populations. Evolution of the models is based on majority rules, with a bias introduced when there is a tie. For the hier- archical voting system model, in order to derive the probability that opinion +1 would win, the analysis was done by reversing time and assuming that an individual in favor of opinion +1 wins. Then, working backwards we counted the number of configurations at the next lowest level that could induce each possible configuration at the level above, and continued this process until reaching the bottom level, i.e., the initial population. Using this method, we were able to derive an explicit formula for the probability that an individual in favor of opinion +1 wins given any initial count of that opinion, for any group size greater than or equal to three. For the public debate model, we counted the total number of individuals in favor of opinion +1 at each time step and used this variable to define a random walk. Then, we used first-step analysis to derive an explicit formula for the probability that an individual in favor of opinion +1 wins given any initial count of that opinion for group sizes of three. The spatial public debate model evolves based on the proportional rule. For the spatial model, the most natural graphical representation to construct the process results in a model that is not mathematically tractable. Thus, we defined a different graphical representation that is mathematically equivalent to the first graphical representation, but in this model it is possible to define a dual process that is mathematically tractable. Using this graphical representation we prove clustering in 1D and 2D and coexistence in higher dimensions following the same approach as for the voter model interacting particle system.

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2013-05

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Ray Fashion Inc.: An Opportunity for Circularity in Shoe Construction and Business

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With the rise of fast fashion and its now apparent effects on climate change, there is an evident need for change in terms of how we as individuals use our clothing and footwear. Our team has created Ray Fashion Inc.,

With the rise of fast fashion and its now apparent effects on climate change, there is an evident need for change in terms of how we as individuals use our clothing and footwear. Our team has created Ray Fashion Inc., a sustainable footwear company that focuses on implementing the circular economy to reduce the amount of waste generated in shoe creation. We have designed a sandal that accommodates the rapid consumption element of fast fashion with a business model that promotes sustainability through a buy-back method to upcycle and retain our materials.

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2021-05

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REVIEW OF THE AXELROD MODEL

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The Axelrod Model is an agent-based adaptive model. The Axelrod Model shows the eects of a mechanism of convergent social inuence. Do local conver- gences generate global polarization ? Will it be possible for all dierences between individuals in a

The Axelrod Model is an agent-based adaptive model. The Axelrod Model shows the eects of a mechanism of convergent social inuence. Do local conver- gences generate global polarization ? Will it be possible for all dierences between individuals in a population comprised of neighbors to disappear ? There are many mechanisms to approach this issue ; the Axelrod Model is one of them.

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2013-05