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Linear Modeling for Insurance Ratemaking/Reserving: Modeling Loss Development Factors for Catastrophe Claims

Description

Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance

Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on modeling catastrophes. Setting reserves for catastrophe losses is difficult due to their unpredictable and often long-tailed nature. Determining loss development factors (LDFs) to estimate the ultimate loss amounts for catastrophe events is one method for setting reserves. In an attempt to aid Company XYZ set more accurate reserves, the research conducted focuses on estimating LDFs for catastrophes which have already occurred and have been settled. Furthermore, the research describes the process used to build a linear model in R to estimate LDFs for Company XYZ's closed catastrophe claims from 2001 \u2014 2016. This linear model was used to predict a catastrophe's LDFs based on the age in weeks of the catastrophe during the first year. Back testing was also performed, as was the comparison between the estimated ultimate losses and actual losses. Future research consideration was proposed.

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2018-05

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Converting Combustion By-Products to Useful Chemicals and Fuels

Description

In the pursuit of sustainable sources of energy that do less harm to the environment, numerous technologies have been developed to reduce carbon emissions in the atmosphere. The implementation of carbon capture and storage systems (CCS) has played a crucial

In the pursuit of sustainable sources of energy that do less harm to the environment, numerous technologies have been developed to reduce carbon emissions in the atmosphere. The implementation of carbon capture and storage systems (CCS) has played a crucial role in reducing CO2 emissions, but depleting storage reserves and ever-increasing costs of sequestrating captured CO2 has prompted the idea of utilizing CO2 as soon as it is produced (i.e. carbon capture and utilization, or CCU) and storing any remaining amounts. This project analyzes the cost of implementing a delafossite CuFeO2 backed CCU system for the average US coal-burning power plant with respect to current amounts of CO2 captured. Beyond comparing annual maintenance costs of CCU and CCS systems, the project extends previous work done on direct CO2 conversion to liquid hydrocarbons by providing a protocol for determining how the presence of NO affects the products formed during pure CO2 hydrogenation. Overall, the goal is to gauge the applicability of CCU systems to power plants with a sub 10-year lifespan left, whilst observing the potential revenue that can be potentially generated from CCU implementation. Under current energy costs ($0.12 per kWh), a delafossite CuFeO2 supported CCU system would generate over $729 thousand in profit for an average sized supercritical pulverized coal power (SCPC) plants selling diesel fuel created from CO2 hydrogenation. This amount far exceeds the cost of storing captured CO2 and suggests that CCU systems can be profitable for SCPC power plants that intend to burn coal until 2025.

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2018-05

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Applying the Hedonic Estimation Method to South Mountain Municipal Park

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South Mountain is the largest municipal park in the nation. It is a bundled amenity, providing a series of linked services to the surrounding communities. A dataset of 19,209 homes in 155 neighborhoods within three miles of the park was

South Mountain is the largest municipal park in the nation. It is a bundled amenity, providing a series of linked services to the surrounding communities. A dataset of 19,209 homes in 155 neighborhoods within three miles of the park was utilized in order to complete a hedonic estimation for two nearby urban villages, Ahwatukee Foothills and South Mountain Village. Measures of access include proximity to the park, trailhead access, and adjacency to the park. Two regressions were estimated, the first including lot characteristics and subdivision fixed effects and the second using the coefficients for each subdivision as the dependent variable. These estimates describe how the location of a house in a subdivision contributes to its conditional mean price. As a result they offer a direct basis for capturing amenities measured at the neighborhood scale on home values. Park proximity, trailhead access and adjacency were found to significantly influence the price of homes at the 5% confidence level in Ahwatukee, but not in South Mountain Village. The results of this study can be applied to issues of environmental justice and park access in determining which areas and attributes of the park are associated with a high premium. Though South Mountain was preserved some time ago, development and future preservation in the City of Phoenix can be informed by such studies.

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Date Created
2015-05

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Green Pages: Teaching Young People how to Live Sustainably

Description

Green Pages is a sustainability-focused magazine publication created by our team in response to the need for increased post-secondary awareness and interest in the ethical circular economy. The magazine, designed and written by Dale Helvoigt, Caroline Yu, and Anne Snyder

Green Pages is a sustainability-focused magazine publication created by our team in response to the need for increased post-secondary awareness and interest in the ethical circular economy. The magazine, designed and written by Dale Helvoigt, Caroline Yu, and Anne Snyder is available digitally and free of charge so that students and non-students alike have access to information and resources regarding sustainability. Each article is thoroughly researched with references provided so our readers seek to continue their education into our content. The end goal of Green Pages is to foster interest in all individuals, especially young people, on the current environmental climate and the sustainable practices that can be adopted into one's lifestyle in pursuit of a "greener" future.

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Date Created
2021-05

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SustainSports - “Green”: On and Off the Field

Description

This project dives into the journey of our entrepreneurial startup with the Founders Lab Thesis Program. In the global sports business industry, we knew that there was something missing. While conducting market research, there was little data and information about

This project dives into the journey of our entrepreneurial startup with the Founders Lab Thesis Program. In the global sports business industry, we knew that there was something missing. While conducting market research, there was little data and information about sustainability initiatives that engaged sports fans, especially in college sports. Not to mention, there was no sustainability information provided on any existing platforms that sporting teams use for ticketing and advertising. So, for our startup, we decided to create a website called SustainSports which gives fans the opportunity to inform themselves about sustainability initiatives at sports events (https://sustainsports.webflow.io/). These fans can also earn points and rewards for practicing sustainability activities at home. In short, SustainSports serves as an educational, interactive, and informative website that connects users to sustainability initiatives, community activities, and exciting rewards, while encouraging users to continue such environmentally-friendly practices in their daily lives. In chronological order, this thesis paper will examine the process we took to create SustainSports and demonstrate our efforts that properly allowed us to defend it one academic year later. From meetings with renowned sports enthusiasts and professors to interviews with ASU students and sports fans, we have listened to and taken in diverse perspectives to understand the perceptions of sustainability in the global sports industry. When we realized that there was a significant gap between sports and sustainability - both important elements of American society and culture - we knew a change needed to be made. Hence, SustainSports came to life, offering users a fresh opportunity to be more aware of their sustainability surroundings, while simultaneously enjoying the sports they know and love.

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Date Created
2021-05

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Homeward Bound: An Overview of Continuing Care at Home

Description

AARP estimates that 90% of seniors wish to remain in their homes during retirement. Seniors need assistance as they age, historically they have received assistance from either family members, nursing homes, or Continuing Care Retirement Communities. For seniors not wanting

AARP estimates that 90% of seniors wish to remain in their homes during retirement. Seniors need assistance as they age, historically they have received assistance from either family members, nursing homes, or Continuing Care Retirement Communities. For seniors not wanting any of these options, there has been very few alternatives. Now, the emergence of the continuing care at home program is providing hope for a different method of elder care moving forward. CCaH programs offer services such as: skilled nursing care, care coordination, emergency response systems, aid with personal and health care, and transportation. Such services allow seniors to continue to live in their own home with assistance as their health deteriorates over time. Currently, only 30 CCaH programs exist. With the growth of the elderly population in the coming years, this model seems poised for growth.

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Date Created
2019-05

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The Effects of 2,3-butanediol on Arabidopsis and Various Crops

Description

Climate change has the potential to reduce the amount of land that is suitable for crop growth. Such changes may cause food shortages, which would most likely disproportionately affect the poorest regions of the world. While GMO crops showed potential

Climate change has the potential to reduce the amount of land that is suitable for crop growth. Such changes may cause food shortages, which would most likely disproportionately affect the poorest regions of the world. While GMO crops showed potential to increase crop yield and agricultural efficiency, significant public pushback has led to a search for alternative methods to generate similar results. Compounds produced by bacteria, such as 2,3-butanediol, offer a potential way to change the phenotypes of plants without the deliberate genomic changes involved in the development of GMOs which are often the subject of great controversy. These compounds influence how plants grow and function. Through precise application, the compounds could be used to improve crop yield and stress tolerance. While these effects are not completely understood, they may be due to changes in transcription and translation of certain proteins, the microbiome surrounding the plants and its interactions with the compounds, or other unknown factors. The compound 2,3-butanediol appears to increase biomass, lead to larger root systems and more root hairs, and increase germination rates in a variety of plants. All these traits are favorable for producing higher yields and enduring stress conditions. The phenotypes induced by this compound are similar to plants engineered to over express a type I proton pyrophosphatase. Plants treated with 2,3-butanediol offer a potential option to achieve the benefits of GMO crops without the attached social stigma.

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Date Created
2019-12

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Energy Subsidies: Cheaper Energy or Energy Abuse?

Description

This paper seeks to analyze the relationship between energy subsidies on fossil fuels by countries and corresponding energy consumption, specifically electricity, by its citizens and occupants. The purpose of this was to determine whether pre-tax subsidies and post-tax subsidies have

This paper seeks to analyze the relationship between energy subsidies on fossil fuels by countries and corresponding energy consumption, specifically electricity, by its citizens and occupants. The purpose of this was to determine whether pre-tax subsidies and post-tax subsidies have an effect on that consumption. This paper will discuss the prospect of accounting for post-tax subsidies as a method to curb rampant energy consumption throughout the world, with the focus being on residential electricity use. The two case studies, the Netherlands and Saudi Arabia, will illustrate the consumption patterns in relatively similar economic societies with different subsidy policies. Saudi Arabia will be a high pre-tax subsidy example while the Netherlands will be shown to account for some of the post-tax subsidies through an externality tax system. At the end of this analysis, this paper will show that the heavy subsidization of electricity production is strongly correlated to residential electricity consumption at levels that many officials would deem unsustainable, and that as such, subsidy reform is both beneficial and necessary.

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Date Created
2016-12