Motivated by the need for cities to prepare and be resilient to unpredictable future weather conditions, this dissertation advances a novel infrastructure development theory of “safe-to-fail” to increase the adaptive capacity of cities to climate change. Current infrastructure development is primarily reliant on identifying probable risks to engineered systems and making infrastructure reliable to maintain its function up to a designed system capacity. However, alterations happening in the earth system (e.g., atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice) and in human systems (e.g., greenhouse gas emission, population, land-use, technology, and natural resource use) are increasing the uncertainties in weather predictions and risk calculations and making it difficult for engineered infrastructure to maintain intended design thresholds in non-stationary future. This dissertation presents a new way to develop safe-to-fail infrastructure that departs from the current practice of risk calculation and is able to manage failure consequences when unpredicted risks overwhelm engineered systems.
This dissertation 1) defines infrastructure failure, refines existing safe-to-fail theory, and compares decision considerations for safe-to-fail vs. fail-safe infrastructure development under non-stationary climate; 2) suggests an approach to integrate the estimation of infrastructure failure impacts with extreme weather risks; 3) provides a decision tool to implement resilience strategies into safe-to-fail infrastructure development; and, 4) recognizes diverse perspectives for adopting safe-to-fail theory into practice in various decision contexts.
Overall, this dissertation advances safe-to-fail theory to help guide climate adaptation decisions that consider infrastructure failure and their consequences. The results of this dissertation demonstrate an emerging need for stakeholders, including policy makers, planners, engineers, and community members, to understand an impending “infrastructure trolley problem”, where the adaptive capacity of some regions is improved at the expense of others. Safe-to-fail further engages stakeholders to bring their knowledge into the prioritization of various failure costs based on their institutional, regional, financial, and social capacity to withstand failures. This approach connects to sustainability, where city practitioners deliberately think of and include the future cost of social, environmental and economic attributes in planning and decision-making.
The first problem from the infrastructure network domain relates to distributed files storage scheme with a goal of enhancing robustness of data storage by making it tolerant against large scale geographically-correlated failures. The second problem relates to placement of relay nodes in a deployment area with multiple sensor nodes with a goal of augmenting connectivity of the resulting network, while staying within the budget specifying the maximum number of relay nodes that can be deployed. The third problem studied in this dissertation relates to complex interdependencies that exist between infrastructure networks, such as power grid and communication network. The progressive recovery problem in an interdependent network is studied whose goal is to maximize system utility over the time when recovery process of failed entities takes place in a sequential manner.
The three problems studied from the social network domain relate to influence propagation in adversarial environment and political sentiment assessment in various states in a country with a goal of creation of a “political heat map” of the country. In the first problem of the influence propagation domain, the goal of the second player is to restrict the influence of the first player, while in the second problem the goal of the second player is to have a larger market share with least amount of initial investment.
Recognizing the need for a deeper understanding of the interdependent relationships between such critical infrastructures, several models have been proposed and analyzed in the last few years. However, most of these models are over-simplified and fail to capture the complex interdependencies that may exist between critical infrastructures. To overcome the limitations of existing models, this dissertation presents a new model -- the Implicative Interdependency Model (IIM) that is able to capture such complex interdependency relations. As the potential for a failure cascade in critical interdependent networks poses several risks that can jeopardize the nation, this dissertation explores relevant research problems in the interdependent power and communication networks using the proposed IIM and lays the foundations for further study using this model.
Apart from exploring problems in interdependent critical infrastructures, this dissertation also explores resource allocation techniques for environments enabled with cyber-physical systems. Specifically, the problem of efficient path planning for data collection using mobile cyber-physical systems is explored. Two such environments are considered: a Radio-Frequency IDentification (RFID) environment with mobile “Tags” and “Readers”, and a sensor data collection environment where both the sensors and the data mules (data collectors) are mobile.
Finally, from an applied research perspective, this dissertation presents Raptor, an advanced network planning and management tool for mitigating the impact of spatially correlated, or region based faults on infrastructure networks. Raptor consolidates a wide range of studies conducted in the last few years on region based faults, and provides an interface for network planners, designers and operators to use the results of these studies for designing robust and resilient networks in the presence of spatially correlated faults.
As technologies rapidly progress, there is growing evidence that our civil infrastructure do not have the capacity to adaptively and reliably deliver services in the face of rapid changes in demand, conditions of service, and environmental conditions. Infrastructure are facing multiple challenges including inflexible physical assets, unstable and insufficient funding, maturation, utilization, increasing interdependencies, climate change, social and environmental awareness, changes in coupled technology systems, lack of transdisciplinary expertise, geopolitical security, and wicked complexity. These challenges are interrelated and several produce non-stationary effects. Successful infrastructure in the twenty-first century will need to be flexible and agile. Drawing from other industries, we provide recommendations for competencies to realize flexibility and agility: roadmapping, focus on software over hardware, resilience-based thinking, compatibility, connectivity, and modularity of components, organic and change-oriented management, and transdisciplinary education. First, we will need to understand how non-technical and technical forces interact to lock in infrastructure, and create path dependencies.
This report has been advanced to a peer-reviewed journal publication:
Mikhail Chester and Braden Allenby, 2008, Toward adaptive infrastructure: flexibility and agility in a non-stationarity age, Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, pp. 1-19, DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2017.1416846.