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- Creators: Chester, Mikhail V
Description
'Attributional' Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) quantitatively tracks the potential environmental impacts of international value chains, in retrospective, while ensuring that burden shifting is avoided. Despite the growing popularity of LCA as a decision-support tool, there are numerous concerns relating to uncertainty and variability in LCA that affects its reliability and credibility. It is pertinent that some part of future research in LCA be guided towards increasing reliability and credibility for decision-making, while utilizing the LCA framework established by ISO 14040.
In this dissertation, I have synthesized the present state of knowledge and application of uncertainty and variability in ‘attributional’ LCA, and contribute to its quantitative assessment.
Firstly, the present state of addressment of uncertainty and variability in LCA is consolidated and reviewed. It is evident that sources of uncertainty and variability exist in the following areas: ISO standards, supplementary guides, software tools, life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, all four methodological phases of LCA, and use of LCA information. One source of uncertainty and variability, each, is identified, selected, quantified, and its implications discussed.
The use of surrogate LCI data in lieu of missing dataset(s) or data-gaps is a source of uncertainty. Despite the widespread use of surrogate data, there has been no effort to (1) establish any form of guidance for the appropriate selection of surrogate data and, (2) estimate the uncertainty associated with the choice and use of surrogate data. A formal expert elicitation-based methodology to select the most appropriate surrogates and to quantify the associated uncertainty was proposed and implemented.
Product-evolution in a non-uniform manner is a source of temporal variability that is presently not considered in LCA modeling. The resulting use of outdated LCA information will lead to misguided decisions affecting the issue at concern and eventually the environment. In order to demonstrate product-evolution within the scope of ISO 14044, and given that variability cannot be reduced, the sources of product-evolution were identified, generalized, analyzed and their implications (individual and coupled) on LCA results are quantified.
Finally, recommendations were provided for the advancement of robustness of 'attributional' LCA, with respect to uncertainty and variability.
In this dissertation, I have synthesized the present state of knowledge and application of uncertainty and variability in ‘attributional’ LCA, and contribute to its quantitative assessment.
Firstly, the present state of addressment of uncertainty and variability in LCA is consolidated and reviewed. It is evident that sources of uncertainty and variability exist in the following areas: ISO standards, supplementary guides, software tools, life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, all four methodological phases of LCA, and use of LCA information. One source of uncertainty and variability, each, is identified, selected, quantified, and its implications discussed.
The use of surrogate LCI data in lieu of missing dataset(s) or data-gaps is a source of uncertainty. Despite the widespread use of surrogate data, there has been no effort to (1) establish any form of guidance for the appropriate selection of surrogate data and, (2) estimate the uncertainty associated with the choice and use of surrogate data. A formal expert elicitation-based methodology to select the most appropriate surrogates and to quantify the associated uncertainty was proposed and implemented.
Product-evolution in a non-uniform manner is a source of temporal variability that is presently not considered in LCA modeling. The resulting use of outdated LCA information will lead to misguided decisions affecting the issue at concern and eventually the environment. In order to demonstrate product-evolution within the scope of ISO 14044, and given that variability cannot be reduced, the sources of product-evolution were identified, generalized, analyzed and their implications (individual and coupled) on LCA results are quantified.
Finally, recommendations were provided for the advancement of robustness of 'attributional' LCA, with respect to uncertainty and variability.
ContributorsSubramanian, Vairavan (Author) / Golden, Jay S (Thesis advisor) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Allenby, Braden R. (Committee member) / Dooley, Kevin J (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Fluids such as steam, oils, and molten salts are commonly used to store and transfer heat in a concentrating solar power (CSP) system. Metal oxide materials have received increasing attention for their reversible reduction-oxidation (redox) reaction that permits receiving, storing, and releasing energy through sensible and chemical potential. This study investigates the performance of a 111.7 MWe CSP system coupled with a thermochemical energy storage system (TCES) that uses a redox active metal oxide acting as the heat transfer fluid. A one-dimensional thermodynamic model is introduced for the novel CSP system design, with detailed designs of the underlying nine components developed from first principles and empirical data of the heat transfer media. The model is used to (a) size components, (b) examine intraday operational behaviors of the system against varying solar insolation, (c) calculate annual productivity and performance characteristics over a simulated year, and (d) evaluate factors that affect system performance using sensitivity analysis. Time series simulations use hourly direct normal irradiance (DNI) data for Barstow, California, USA. The nominal system design uses a solar multiple of 1.8 with a storage capacity of six hours for off-sun power generation. The mass of particles to achieve six hours of storage weighs 5,140 metric tonnes. Capacity factor increases by 3.55% for an increase in storage capacity to eight hours which requires an increase in storage volume by 33% or 737 m3, or plant design can be improved by decreasing solar multiple to 1.6 to increase the ratio of annual capacity factor to solar multiple. The solar reduction receiver is the focal point for the concentrated solar energy for inducing an endothermic reaction in the particles under low partial pressure of oxygen, and the reoxidation reactor induces the opposite exothermic reaction by mixing the particles with air to power an air Brayton engine. Stream flow data indicate the solar receiver experiences the largest thermal loss of any component, excluding the solar field. Design and sensitivity analysis of thermal insulation layers for the solar receiver show that additional RSLE-57 insulation material achieves the greatest increase in energetic efficiency of the five materials investigated.
ContributorsGorman, Brandon Tom (Author) / Johnson, Nathan G (Thesis advisor) / Stechel, Ellen B (Committee member) / Chester, Mikhail V (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017