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This work considers the design of separating input signals in order to discriminate among a finite number of uncertain nonlinear models. Each nonlinear model corresponds to a system operating mode, unobserved intents of other drivers or robots, or to fault types or attack strategies, etc., and the separating inputs are designed such that the output trajectories of all the nonlinear models are guaranteed to be distinguishable from each other under any realization of uncertainties in the initial condition, model discrepancies or noise. I propose a two-step approach. First, using an optimization-based approach, we over-approximate nonlinear dynamics by uncertain affine models, as abstractions that preserve all its system behaviors such that any discrimination guarantees for the affine abstraction also hold for the original nonlinear system. Then, I propose a novel solution in the form of a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) to the active model discrimination problem for uncertain affine models, which includes the affine abstraction and thus, the nonlinear models. Finally, I demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for identifying the intention of other vehicles in a highway lane changing scenario. For the abstraction, I explore two approaches. In the first approach, I construct the bounding planes using a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Problem (MINLP) formulation of the given system with appropriately designed constraints. For the second approach, I solve a linear programming (LP) problem that over-approximates the nonlinear function at only the grid points of a mesh with a given resolution and then accounting for the entire domain via an appropriate correction term. To achieve a desired approximation accuracy, we also iteratively subdivide the domain into subregions. This method applies to nonlinear functions with different degrees of smoothness, including Lipschitz continuous functions, and improves on existing approaches by enabling the use of tighter bounds. Finally, we compare the effectiveness of this approach with the existing optimization-based methods in simulation and illustrate its applicability for estimator design.
ContributorsSingh, Kanishka Raj (Author) / Yong, Sze Zheng (Thesis advisor) / Artemiadis, Panagiotis (Committee member) / Berman, Spring (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Over the past century, the world has become increasingly more complex. Modern systems (i.e blockchain, internet of things (IoT), and global supply chains) are inherently difficult to comprehend due to their high degree of connectivity. Understanding the nature of complex systems becomes an acutely more critical skill set for managing socio-technical infrastructure systems. As existing education programs and technical analysis approaches fail to teach and describe modern complexities, resulting consequences have direct impacts on real-world systems. Complex systems are characterized by exhibiting nonlinearity, interdependencies, feedback loops, and stochasticity. Since these four traits are counterintuitive, those responsible for managing complex systems may struggle in identifying these underlying relationships and decision-makers may fail to account for their implications or consequences when deliberating systematic policies or interventions.
This dissertation details the findings of a three-part study on applying complex systems modeling techniques to exemplar socio-technical infrastructure systems. In the research articles discussed hereafter, various modeling techniques are contrasted in their capacity for simulating and analyzing complex, adaptive systems. This research demonstrates the empirical value of a complex system approach as twofold: (i) the technique explains systems interactions which are often neglected or ignored and (ii) its application has the capacity for teaching systems thinking principles. These outcomes serve decision-makers by providing them with further empirical analysis and granting them a more complete understanding on which to base their decisions.
The first article examines modeling techniques, and their unique aptitudes are compared against the characteristics of complex systems to establish which methods are most qualified for complex systems analysis. Outlined in the second article is a proof of concept piece on using an interactive simulation of the Los Angeles water distribution system to teach complex systems thinking skills for the improved management of socio-technical infrastructure systems. Lastly, the third article demonstrates the empirical value of this complex systems approach for analyzing infrastructure systems through the construction of a systems dynamics model of the Arizona educational-workforce system, across years 1990 to 2040. The model explores a series of dynamic hypotheses and allows stakeholders to compare policy interventions for improving educational and economic outcome measures.
This dissertation details the findings of a three-part study on applying complex systems modeling techniques to exemplar socio-technical infrastructure systems. In the research articles discussed hereafter, various modeling techniques are contrasted in their capacity for simulating and analyzing complex, adaptive systems. This research demonstrates the empirical value of a complex system approach as twofold: (i) the technique explains systems interactions which are often neglected or ignored and (ii) its application has the capacity for teaching systems thinking principles. These outcomes serve decision-makers by providing them with further empirical analysis and granting them a more complete understanding on which to base their decisions.
The first article examines modeling techniques, and their unique aptitudes are compared against the characteristics of complex systems to establish which methods are most qualified for complex systems analysis. Outlined in the second article is a proof of concept piece on using an interactive simulation of the Los Angeles water distribution system to teach complex systems thinking skills for the improved management of socio-technical infrastructure systems. Lastly, the third article demonstrates the empirical value of this complex systems approach for analyzing infrastructure systems through the construction of a systems dynamics model of the Arizona educational-workforce system, across years 1990 to 2040. The model explores a series of dynamic hypotheses and allows stakeholders to compare policy interventions for improving educational and economic outcome measures.
ContributorsNaufel, Lauren Rae McBurnett (Author) / Bekki, Jennifer (Thesis advisor) / Kellam, Nadia (Thesis advisor) / Rogers, Bradley (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020