Matching Items (3)
Description
Cigarette smoking remains a major global public health issue. This is partially due to the chronic and relapsing nature of tobacco use, which contributes to the approximately 90% quit attempt failure rate. The recent rise in mobile technologies has led to an increased ability to frequently measure smoking behaviors and related constructs over time, i.e., obtain intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Dynamical systems modeling and system identification methods from engineering offer a means to leverage ILD in order to better model dynamic smoking behaviors. In this dissertation, two sets of dynamical systems models are estimated using ILD from a smoking cessation clinical trial: one set describes cessation as a craving-mediated process; a second set was reverse-engineered and describes a psychological self-regulation process in which smoking activity regulates craving levels. The estimated expressions suggest that self-regulation more accurately describes cessation behavior change, and that the psychological self-regulator resembles a proportional-with-filter controller. In contrast to current clinical practice, adaptive smoking cessation interventions seek to personalize cessation treatment over time. An intervention of this nature generally reflects a control system with feedback and feedforward components, suggesting its design could benefit from a control systems engineering perspective. An adaptive intervention is designed in this dissertation in the form of a Hybrid Model Predictive Control (HMPC) decision algorithm. This algorithm assigns counseling, bupropion, and nicotine lozenges each day to promote tracking of target smoking and craving levels. Demonstrated through a diverse series of simulations, this HMPC-based intervention can aid a successful cessation attempt. Objective function weights and three-degree-of-freedom tuning parameters can be sensibly selected to achieve intervention performance goals despite strict clinical and operational constraints. Such tuning largely affects the rate at which peak bupropion and lozenge dosages are assigned; total post-quit smoking levels, craving offset, and other performance metrics are consequently affected. Overall, the interconnected nature of the smoking and craving controlled variables facilitate the controller's robust decision-making capabilities, even despite the presence of noise or plant-model mismatch. Altogether, this dissertation lays the conceptual and computational groundwork for future efforts to utilize engineering concepts to further study smoking behaviors and to optimize smoking cessation interventions.
ContributorsTimms, Kevin Patrick (Author) / Rivera, Daniel E (Thesis advisor) / Frakes, David (Committee member) / Nielsen, David R (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This dissertation develops advanced controls for distributed energy systems and evaluates performance on technical and economic benefits. Microgrids and thermal systems are of primary focus with applications shown for residential, commercial, and military applications that have differing equipment, rate structures, and objectives. Controls development for residential energy heating and cooling systems implement adaptive precooling strategies and thermal energy storage, with comparisons made of each approach separately and then together with precooling and thermal energy storage. Case studies show on-peak demand and annual energy related expenses can be reduced by up to 75.6% and 23.5%, respectively, for a Building America B10 Benchmark home in Phoenix Arizona, Los Angeles California, and Kona Hawaii. Microgrids for commercial applications follow after with increased complexity. Three control methods are developed and compared including a baseline logic-based control, model predictive control, and model predictive control with ancillary service control algorithms. Case studies show that a microgrid consisting of 326 kW solar PV, 634 kW/ 634 kWh battery, and a 350 kW diesel generator can reduce on-peak demand and annual energy related expenses by 82.2% and 44.1%, respectively. Findings also show that employing a model predictive control algorithm with ancillary services can reduce operating expenses by 23.5% when compared to a logic-based algorithm. Microgrid evaluation continues with an investigation of off-grid operation and resilience for military applications. A statistical model is developed to evaluate the survivability (i.e. probability to meet critical load during an islanding event) to serve critical load out to 7 days of grid outage. Case studies compare the resilience of a generator-only microgrid consisting of 5,250 kW in generators and hybrid microgrid consisting of 2,250 kW generators, 3,450 kW / 13,800 kWh storage, and 16,479 kW solar photovoltaics. Findings show that the hybrid microgrid improves survivability by 10.0% and decreases fuel consumption by 47.8% over a 168-hour islanding event when compared to a generator-only microgrid under nominal conditions. Findings in this dissertation can increase the adoption of reliable, low cost, and low carbon distributed energy systems by improving the operational capabilities and economic benefits to a variety of customers and utilities.
ContributorsNelson, James Robert (Author) / Johnson, Nathan (Thesis advisor) / Stadler, Michael (Committee member) / Zhang, Wenlong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Interpersonal communications during civil infrastructure systems operation and maintenance (CIS O&M) are processes for CIS O&M participants to exchange critical information. Poor communications that provide misleading information can jeopardize CIS O&M safety and efficiency. Previous studies suggest that communication contexts and features could be indicators of communication errors and relevant CIS O&M risks. However, challenges remain for reliable prediction of communication errors to ensure CIS O&M safety and efficiency. For example, existing studies lack a systematic summarization of risky contexts and features of communication processes for predicting communication errors. Limited studies examined quantitative methods for incorporating expert opinions as constraints for reliable communication error prediction. How to examine mitigation strategies (e.g., adjustments of communication protocols) for reducing communication-related CIS O&M risks is also challenging. The main reason is the lack of causal analysis about how various factors influence the occurrences and impacts of communication errors so that engineers lack the basis for intervention.
This dissertation presents a method that integrates Bayesian Network (BN) modeling and simulation for communication-related risk prediction and mitigation. The proposed method aims at tackling the three challenges mentioned above for ensuring CIS O&M safety and efficiency. The proposed method contains three parts: 1) Communication Data Collection and Error Detection – designing lab experiments for collecting communication data in CIS O&M workflows and using the collected data for identifying risky communication contexts and features; 2) Communication Error Classification and Prediction – encoding expert knowledge as constraints through BN model updating to improve the accuracy of communication error prediction based on given communication contexts and features, and 3) Communication Risk Mitigation – carrying out simulations to adjust communication protocols for reducing communication-related CIS O&M risks.
This dissertation uses two CIS O&M case studies (air traffic control and NPP outages) to validate the proposed method. The results indicate that the proposed method can 1) identify risky communication contexts and features, 2) predict communication errors and CIS O&M risks, and 3) reduce CIS O&M risks triggered by communication errors. The author envisions that the proposed method will shed light on achieving predictive control of interpersonal communications in dynamic and complex CIS O&M.
This dissertation presents a method that integrates Bayesian Network (BN) modeling and simulation for communication-related risk prediction and mitigation. The proposed method aims at tackling the three challenges mentioned above for ensuring CIS O&M safety and efficiency. The proposed method contains three parts: 1) Communication Data Collection and Error Detection – designing lab experiments for collecting communication data in CIS O&M workflows and using the collected data for identifying risky communication contexts and features; 2) Communication Error Classification and Prediction – encoding expert knowledge as constraints through BN model updating to improve the accuracy of communication error prediction based on given communication contexts and features, and 3) Communication Risk Mitigation – carrying out simulations to adjust communication protocols for reducing communication-related CIS O&M risks.
This dissertation uses two CIS O&M case studies (air traffic control and NPP outages) to validate the proposed method. The results indicate that the proposed method can 1) identify risky communication contexts and features, 2) predict communication errors and CIS O&M risks, and 3) reduce CIS O&M risks triggered by communication errors. The author envisions that the proposed method will shed light on achieving predictive control of interpersonal communications in dynamic and complex CIS O&M.
ContributorsSun, Zhe (Author) / Tang, Pingbo (Thesis advisor) / Ayer, Steven K (Committee member) / Cooke, Nancy J. (Committee member) / Liu, Yongming (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020