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152477 https://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.24820 http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ All Rights Reserved 2014 xii, 190 p. : ill. (some col.) Doctoral Dissertation Academic theses Text eng Crawford, Aaron Levy, Roy Green, Samuel Thompson, Marilyn Arizona State University Partial requirement for: Ph. D., Arizona State University, 2014 Includes bibliographical references (p. 169-177) Field of study: Educational psychology This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex performance assessment within a digital-simulation educational context grounded in theories of cognition and learning. BN models were manipulated along two factors: latent variable dependency structure and number of latent classes. Distributions of posterior predicted p-values (PPP-values) served as the primary outcome measure and were summarized in graphical presentations, by median values across replications, and by proportions of replications in which the PPP-values were extreme. An effect size measure for PPMC was introduced as a supplemental numerical summary to the PPP-value. Consistent with previous PPMC research, all investigated fit functions tended to perform conservatively, but Standardized Generalized Dimensionality Discrepancy Measure (SGDDM), Yen's Q3, and Hierarchy Consistency Index (HCI) only mildly so. Adequate power to detect at least some types of misfit was demonstrated by SGDDM, Q3, HCI, Item Consistency Index (ICI), and to a lesser extent Deviance, while proportion correct (PC), a chi-square-type item-fit measure, Ranked Probability Score (RPS), and Good's Logarithmic Scale (GLS) were powerless across all investigated factors. Bivariate SGDDM and Q3 were found to provide powerful and detailed feedback for all investigated types of misfit. Educational tests & measurements Quantitative Psychology and Psychometrics Statistics BN discrepancy measures latent class multidimensional PPMC PPP-value Irregularities of distribution (Number theory) Bayesian statistical decision theory Cognition--Testing--Statistics. Cognition Posterior predictive model checking in Bayesian networks