Brazilian Civil-Military Relations: Military Coup Risk Analysis

This thesis deals primarily with contemporary Brazilian civil-military relations. For most of the 20th century Brazil’s political system was stuck in a cycle of repeated military intervention. At present, Brazil operates as an electoral democracy and has kept the military out of politics since 1985. In order to understand the likelihood of another coup d’état, this thesis considers threats to the military’s corporate interests and deflations of the government’s political legitimacy within Brazil. Given the lack of significant threats to the military’s self-interest and the absence of serious legitimacy deflations, the Brazilian government appears unlikely to have a coup d’état in the near future. It is, however, important to remember that the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics could challenge Brazil’s current political stability and alter the likelihood of military intervention.